Market Competitive Intensity (MCI): Sweden

Datamonitor's Market Competitive Intensity Index (MCI) is a robust framework for measuring and benchmarking the development of competitiveness and market conditions in a range of gas and electricty markets. The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push and Customer Pull.

Report Highlights
Datamonitor's MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of utility Market Competitive Intensity. MCI scores are calculated using two different methods. The first, the simple weighted average (additive) measure shows overall competitive intensity. The second, the multipliative method, is more complex. It prevents markets with an overly wide spread of underlying raw scores from exerting undue influence over, or skewing, the final result.
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DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Introduction: Datamonitor's MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of energy Market Competitive Intensity 2
The MCI Index shows how attractive a particular market is to new entrants in terms of the competitive environment 2
The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push; Customer Pull. 3
The MCI Index measures competitive intensity in the EU 27 and 6 related markets 4
The MCI Index assesses markets as they stood in early 2008 and forecasts conditions likely to be prevailing three years after full market opening 4
The MCI Index offers an assessment of competitive intensity in January 2008 and a forecast for July 2010 - three years after full market opening took place in the EU states. 4
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more details) 5
Two differing overall MCI scores are calculated to ensure full clarity of results 5
A simple weighted average (additive) measure shows overall competitive intensity 5
A weighted multiple (multiplicative) measure shows overall competitive intensity 5
The MCI framework has a number of applications for your organization 6
Context: A considerable gap exists between Sweden's gas and power scores and rankings 7
Sweden's power market score is significantly ahead of the majority of markets surveyed 7
The undeveloped nature of the Swedish gas sector means that it ranks towards the bottom of the markets surveyed 7
Power MCI: The majority of Sweden's metrics score towards the upper end of the scale 9
The Swedish Market Framework metrics are likely to gain further strength by July 2010 9
Effectiveness of Regulator [2008: 3.5/10 2010: 5/10] 9
Ease of Third Party Access [2008: 7/10 2010: 8/10] 9
Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer [2008: 6/10 2010: 8/10] 10
Supplier Push metrics are driven by the existence of the Nord Pool market 10
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2008: 9/10 2010: 9/10] 10
Retail Market Fragmentation [2008: 7.5/10 2010: 7.5/10] 10
Traded Market Maturity [2008: 10/10 2010: 10/10] 10
Customer Pull factors score relatively highly, though are unlikely to show any further improvement. 10
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2008: 7.5/10 2010: 8.5/10] 10
Consumer Representation [2008: 5/10 2010: 7/10] 10
Propensity to Switch [2008: 4/10 2010: 8/10] 11
Gas MCI: In contrast to the power market, all but one of Sweden's gas scores are at the bottom end of the scale 12
The undeveloped nature of the Swedish gas market constrains the Market Framework scores 12
Effectiveness of Regulator [2008: 3/10 2010: 5/10] 12
Ease of Third Party Access [2008: 3/10 2010: 3/10] 13
Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer [2008: 4/10 2010: 6/10] 13
High levels of wholesale and retail fragmentation combined with a lack of wholesale gas constrain the Market Framework scores 13
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2008: 0.5/10 2010: 3/10] 13
Retail Market Fragmentation [2008: 2.5/10 2010: 2.5/10] 13
Traded Market Maturity [2008: 0/10 2010: 0/10] 14
Customer Pull metrics will remain at the lower end of the scale due to the immature nature of the market 14
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2008: 3/10 2010: 5/10] 14
Consumer Representation [2008: 3/10 2010: 4.5/10] 14
Propensity to Switch [2008: 2/10 2010: .3.5/10] 14
Outlook: Opportunities exist for players willing to make long term distribution infrastructure investments 15
Sweden's position as one of Europe's most competitive power markets is in direct contrast to its gas market 15
Power scores 15
Gas scores 15
Concerns over regulatory stability and the existing dominant players will somewhat temper the otherwise attractive nature of the market 16
New Market Entrant Opportunities, Power 16
New Market Entrant Threats, Power 16
The current opportunities in the Swedish gas market appear to be extremely limited with little improvement likely before at least 2010 16
New Market Entrant Opportunities, Gas 16
New Market Entrant Threats, Gas 17
MCI Scores 18
APPENDIX 21
Definitions 21
Ask the analyst 26
[Inhaltsverzeichnis ausblenden]

Table 1: Market Competitive Intensity, Sweden 2008-10 18
Table 2: MCI Additive, Europe 2008-2010 19
Table 3: MCI Multiplicative, Europe 2008-2010 20
Figure 1: MCI Assessment Scale 2
Figure 2: MCI Assessment Framework 3
Figure 3: MCI Market Coverage 4
Figure 4: MCI Scales 5
Figure 5: MCI Applications 6
Figure 6: European Power Market Competitive Intensity, 2008-10 7
Figure 7: European Gas Market Competitive Intensity, 2008-10 8
Figure 8: Power Market Competitive Intensity, Sweden 9
Figure 9: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, Sweden 12
Figure 10: Market Competitive Intensity, Sweden 15
Figure 11: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Regulator 21
Figure 12: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of Third Party Access 22
Figure 13: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer 22
Figure 14: Scale for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation 23
Figure 15: Scale for MCI Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation 23
Figure 16: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity 24
Figure 17: Scale for MCI Assessment, Access to Market Information and Assistance 24
Figure 18: Scale for MCI Assessment, Consumer Representation 25
Figure 19: Scale for MCI Assessment, Propensity to Switch 25
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