DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Introduction: Datamonitor's MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of energy Market Competitive Intensity 2
The MCI Index shows how attractive a particular market is to new entrants in terms of the competitive environment 3
The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: market framework; supplier push; customer pull 3
The MCI Index measures the development of 20 diverse Asia Pacific gas and power markets 4
The MCI Index assesses markets in December 2007, and on July 1, 2010, in addition to driving a market switching forecast 4
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more details) 5
Two differing overall MCI scores are calculated to ensure full clarity of results 5
A simple weighted average (additive) measure shows overall competitive intensity 5
A weighted multiple (multiplicative) measure shows overall competitive intensity 5
In calculating the weighted individual scores, the power of the corresponding weight (zi=xi^yi) needs to be taken rather than its product (zi=xi*yi). 6
The MCI framework has a number of applications for your organization 6
Context: Victoria's energy market achieves the highest score of the markets surveyed 7
The high level of power market competitive intensity seen in Victoria remains constant over the forecast period 7
The established nature of the Victoria gas market allow it to achieve a high level of competitive intensity 8
Power MCI: Full retail contestability, effective regulation and membership of NEM makes Victoria one of the most developed power markets 9
Market Framework factors all score highly 9
Effectiveness of regulator [2007: 7.5/10 2010: 9/10] 9
Effectiveness of balancing and data transfer [2007: 9.5/10 2010: 10/10] 10
Supplier Push metrics remain strong over the forecast period 11
Wholesale market fragmentation [2007: 6.5/10 2010: 7/10] 11
Retail market fragmentation [2007: 5.5/10 2010: 6.5/10] 11
Traded market maturity [2007: 9/10 2010: 10/10] 11
Customer Pull metrics are a particularly key part of Victoria's overall score 11
Access to market information and assistance [2007: 6/10 2010: 8/10] 11
Consumer representation [2007: 8/10 2010: 9/10] 12
Propensity to switch [2007: 6.5/10 2010: 7.5/10] 12
Gas MCI: Victoria's gas market is one of the most competitively intense in the world 13
Victoria has particularly strong Market Framework factors 13
Effectiveness of regulator [2007: 7.5/10 2010: 9/10] 13
Ease of third party access [2007: 9/10 2010: 10/10] 14
Pipeline access is regulated under the National Third Party Access Code for Natural Gas Pipeline Systems (the gas code), which operates under the gas pipeline access Acts (gas law) in each state and territory. Under reforms agreed in the Australian Energy Market Agreement 2004 (amended 2006) the current gas law and code are to be replaced with the National Gas Law and National Gas Rules. 14
Effectiveness of balancing and data transfer [2007: 7/10 2010: 8/10] 14
Supplier Push factors score in the mid range of the scale 14
Wholesale market fragmentation [2007: 4.5/10 2010: 5/10] 14
Retail market fragmentation [2007: 4.5/10 2010: 5/10] 15
Customer Pull metrics are amongst the strongest in the Asia Pacific region 15
Access to market information and assistance [2007: 4.5/10 2010: 6/10] 15
VENCorp, the local independent system operator, can be regarded as one source for gas market related information. The Essential Service Commission also relays policy, regulations and price related information to the public. AER annual reports also give a substantial insight into the proceedings of the sectors and track the dynamics related to the sector, but this is by no means tantamount to independent market information and assistance 15
Consumer representation [2007: 5/10 2010: 7/10] 15
Propensity to switch [2007: 7/10 2010: 9/10] 16
Outlook: Competitive intensity in Victoria will continue to develop 17
MCI Scores 18
APPENDIX 21
Definitions 21
Ask the analyst 26
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Market Competitive Intensity, Victoria 2007-10 18
Table 2: MCI additive, Asia Pacific 2007-10 19
Table 3: MCI multiplicative, Asia Pacific 2007-10 20
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