Market Competitive Intensity (MCI): Vietnam

Datamonitor's MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of utility Market Competitive Intensity. The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push; Customer Pull.

Report Highlights
MCI scores are calculated using two different methods. The first, the simple weighted average (additive) measure shows overall competitive intensity. The second, the multiplicative method, is more complex. It prevents markets with an overly wide spread of underlying raw scores from exerting undue influence over, or skewing, the final result.

Liberalisation, energy pricing issues and environmental concerns will remain key drivers of gas and power market dynamics throughout the MCI forecast period.
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DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Introduction: Datamonitor's MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of energy Market Competitive Intensity 2
The MCI Index shows how attractive a particular market is to new entrants in terms of the competitive environment 3
The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: market framework; supplier push; customer pull 3
The MCI Index measures the development of 20 diverse Asia Pacific gas and power markets 4
The MCI Index assesses markets in December 2007 and on July 1, 2010, in addition to driving a market switching forecast 4
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more details) 5
Two differing overall MCI scores are calculated to ensure full clarity of results 5
A simple weighted average (additive) measure shows overall competitive intensity 5
A weighted multiple (multiplicative) measure shows overall competitive intensity 5
The MCI framework has a number of applications for your organization 6
Context: Vietnam's gas and power markets maintain modest levels of competitive intensity over the forecast period 7
Vietnam's speed of competitive intensity growth is eclipsed by other markets over the forecast period 7
Vietnam remains the least competitively intense of the 20 markets analyzed 8
Power MCI: Most of Vietnam's metrics show only modest growth over the forecast period 9
Market Framework factors are a key element in driving Vietnam's power score 9
Effectiveness of regulator [2007: 6/10 2010: 7/10] 9
Effectiveness of balancing and data transfer [2007: 5/10 2010: 6/10] 10
Supplier Push metrics cover a range of the scoring scale 10
Wholesale market fragmentation [2007: 3.5/10 2010: 4/10] 10
Retail market fragmentation [2007: 7.5/10 2010: 8/10] 10
Traded market maturity [2007: 0/10 2010: 0/10] 10
Low Customer Pull metrics curtail the overall score 10
Access to market information and assistance [2007: 2/10 2010: 3/10] 10
ERAV and EVN are the only avenues available through which access to market information and assistance is available. However, the EVN monopoly leads to severe restrictions on the availability of market information resulting in a low score. 10
Consumer representation [2007: 2/10 2010: 2/10] 10
Propensity to switch [2007: 0/10 2010: 0/10] 10
Gas MCI: Competitive intensity in the Vietnamese gas sector is barely measurable 11
A monopoly leads to a weak market framework 11
Effectiveness of regulator [2007: 1/10 2010: 1/10] 11
Ease of third party access [2007: 0/10 2010: 0/10] 11
No third party access currently exists in Vietnam's gas market. 11
Effectiveness of balancing and data transfer [2007: 0/10 2010: 0/10] 12
Supplier Push scores are uniformly low 12
Wholesale market fragmentation [2007: 1/10 2010: 1/10] 12
Retail market fragmentation [2007: 0/10 2010: 0/10] 12
There is no gas trading activity in Vietnam at the current time. 12
Customer Pull metrics make no impact on the overall score 12
Access to market information and assistance [2007: 1/10 2010: 1/10] 12
Consumer representation [2007: 0/10 2010: 0/10] 12
No meaningful consumer representation exists in the sector. 12
Propensity to switch [2007: 0/10 2010: 0/10] 12
Outlook: Commercial opportunities remain extremely limited in the Vietnamese 13
MCI Scores 14
APPENDIX 17
Definitions 17
Ask the analyst 22
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Market Competitive Intensity, Vietnam 2007-10 14
Table 2: MCI additive, Asia Pacific 2007-10 15
Table 3: MCI multiplicative, Asia Pacific 2007-10 16
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Table 1: Market Competitive Intensity, Vietnam 2007-10 14
Table 2: MCI additive, Asia Pacific 2007-10 15
Table 3: MCI multiplicative, Asia Pacific 2007-10 16
Figure 1: MCI assessment scale 3
Figure 2: MCI assessment framework 3
Figure 3: MCI market coverage 4
Figure 4: MCI scales 5
Figure 5: MCI Applications 6
Figure 6: Asia Pacific power Market Competitive Intensity, 2007-10 7
Figure 7: Asia Pacific gas Market Competitive Intensity, 2007-10 8
Figure 8: Power Market Competitive Intensity Index, Vietnam 9
Figure 9: Gas Market Competitive Intensity Index, Vietnam 11
Figure 10: Market Competitive Intensity, Vietnam 13
Figure 11: Scale for MCI assessment, effectiveness of regulator 17
Figure 12: Scale for MCI assessment, ease of third party access 18
Figure 13: Scale for MCI assessment, effectiveness of balancing and data transfer 18
Figure 14: Scale for MCI assessment, wholesale market fragmentation 19
Figure 15: Scale for MCI assessment, retail market fragmentation 19
Figure 16: Scale for MCI assessment, traded market maturity 20
Figure 17: Scale for MCI assessment, access to market information and assistance 20
Figure 18: Scale for MCI assessment, consumer representation 21
Figure 19: Scale for MCI assessment, propensity to switch 22
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