We expect Kazakhstan's mining industry value to reach US$36bn by 2016, down from our previous forecast in light of our view of an

BMI has revised its forecasts for Indonesia's mobile communications market in light of new Q311 data from Telkomsel, XL Axiata and

Due to the convergence of a number of factors, the Belgian market is entering a period of evolution that will affect the strategie

We maintain our view that the Algerian economy will experience moderate rates of real GDP expansion, with growth rates of 3.0% and

The Czech consumer outlook continues to remain extremely challenging. In light of a still weak economic outlook for the German eco

With Iran scheduled to hold talks about its nuclear programme with the P5+1 group of countries (which comprises the five UN securi

Egypt’s first presidential elections in 60 years hold the key to the country’s prospects of returning to a stable and secure footi

BMI’s Q3 Poland Defence and Security Report examines the country’s strategic position in Europe and the wider world. It provides a

In April 2012, the world's largest brewer, Anheuser-Busch InBev (ABI), announced that it had purchased a majority stake in Dominic

With Australia's fortunes very much tied up with China's, the forecast Chinese hard landing in 2012 will be to the detriment of de

BMI View: Sudan's power sector is benefiting from large-scale investment in new infrastructure. China has emerged as one of the bi

BMI View: There have been several developments in relation to Poland’s energy mix that will enable the country to comply with EU r

BMI View: We do not expect Taiwan's healthcare expenditure to reach the government's target of 7.5% of GDP in the short to medium

BMI View: While the Netherlands is a low risk market from the point of view of multinational drugmakers, the country’s modest per

BMI View: The already modest attractiveness of Namibia’s pharmaceutical, medical device and healthcare markets has declined slight

BMI View: Cameroon’s medium-to-long-term drug market expansion potential remains highly dependent on the country’s economic growth

BMI View: Healthcare may not have been a major concern for Angola’s government – which has prioritised economic development over s

Our outlook on Kuwait’s consumer confidence remains positive, although we have recently turned less optimistic on the country’s gr

Despite the current slow-down in the performance of the country’s key export partners, we expect Kazakhstan’s private consumption

Our consumer outlook for Croatia takes into account the difficult domestic and external economic situation which will be further c

BMI View: The pharmaceutical markets of Central America, when viewed collectively, represent small but growing proposition to drug

BMI’s Croatia Defence and Security Report examines the military and security posture of this Balkans nation. The report has been w

BMI’s Q312 update to the Czech Republic Telecommunications market report contains analysis of the recent trends and developments a

BMI View: Angola has one of the strongest economic growth outlooks in Sub-Saharan Africa, and we are unsurprisingly bullish on the

In 2011, petrochemicals and downstream industries reported stellar growth as the industry enjoyed an influx of fresh investment an

BMI View: New licensing rounds could lead to a sharp rise in upstream investment, helping to drive long-term growth in reserves an

BMI View: Mexico offers significant and improving opportunities for multinational pharmaceutical companies, especially in the outp

With new data released from Chile’s major telecoms operators, BMI’s latest quarterly report shows that even despite passing market

BMI View: We have revised down our 2012 construction forecasts for Indonesia, with real growth expected to reach around 6.9% in 20

BMI View: A high level of investment will be required to maintain Russian oil output at close to recent record levels, putting pre

The Czech Republic's mining sector is set to undergo declines until 2013, before seeing modest gains until 2016, when its value wi

While the Arab League’s decision to hold its annual summit in the Iraqi capital Baghdad in March 2012 was intended to demonstrate

BMI View: We hold a positive view towards Cameroon’s food, drink and mass grocery retail industries over our forecast period, in l

BMI View: We have a very positive medium-term outlook for the Ivorian food, beverage and retail sectors. Our positive view hinges

BMI View: Relative to a number of other Central and West African economies, our outlook for growth in Gabon’s food, drink and reta

Over the short term, BMI does not expect the situation to improve for new vehicle sales in either Sudan or South Sudan. Following

Thanks to the robust retail sales outlook, increasing tourism arrivals and a strengthening Singaporean dollar, the domestic consum

Strong underlying economic growth, the world’s fourth largest population (which is growing), rising per capita incomes and the con

The Q312 BMI Hong Kong Retail report forecasts that total retail sales in the special administrative region will grow from HKD332.

The Czech Republic Petrochemicals Report examines the competitiveness and potential of the country’s well-integrated petrochemical

As 2012 ushers in the second year of China's 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015), we expect the changes and reforms enacted in 2011 to

The Malaysian consumer is looking to be in better shape than its regional peers to shoulder the burden of a deteriorating external

In the first quarter of 2012, Greece averted a disorderly default in the short term as parliament backed further fiscal austerity

Although Brazil has plenty to offer to foreign investors, we highlight that the country remains a challenging market in which to i

The South Korean real estate sector is back under the spotlight, and is likely to remain so for some time to come. The nation’s su

The Saudi Arabia Real Estate report examines the Commercial Office, Retail and Industrial segments throughout the Kingdom in the c

BMI’s Qatar real estate report examines growth opportunities and risks in this fast-growing Gulf market. Our 2012 forecasts see a

Since our last update, reports on Malaysia’s real estate sector remain stable, suggesting the country is performing well compared

The Brazilian economy continues to enjoy growth in spite of global economic headwinds. However, the downside risks are growing and

BMI View: Uganda's power sector suffers from a shortage of generating capacity due to years of underinvestment, which have resulte

BMI View: Although Qatari petrochemicals margins remain relatively healthy and petrochemicals prices are returning to near pre-cri

Overview We forecast that Angola's Mining industry will grow by 3.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2012 in real terms. / Growth is expe

We hold a sanguine outlook on the near-term demand prospects in Vietnam. Tight labour market conditions and waning inflationary pr

The five major Central Asian Republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have commenced a subtle,

Central Africa's mining sector is set to follow much of the continent by developing its substantial mineral wealth. As yet, the re

The Egypt Real Estate report examines the Commercial Office, Retail and Industrial segments in the context of a market, which in s

The outlook for Kuwait’s real estate sector remains positive. The market is recovering, backed by increased government spending an

The Singapore Real Estate report examines the Commercial Office, Retail and Industrial segments in the context of an increasingly

This Q312 update to BMI’s Turkey Telecommunications Report contains forecasts and market data analysis that draws on the latest da

In late 2011, BMI conducted its latest round of interviews with in-country sources on India’s commercial real estate sector. The o

BMI View: Before 2010, Turkey's pharmaceutical market growth was rapidly driven by modernisation, growing investment and improving

Argentina's mining sector holds some of the largest potential for development in the Americas region. Large natural resources and

The UAE Real Estate report examines the Commercial Office, Retail and Industrial segments in the context of an increasingly positi

BMI’s Malaysia Defence and Security Report examines the country’s strategic position in South East Asia and the wider region. It p

BMI View: In 2011/12, we expect the Pakistani agriculture sector to reap record harvests for key crops such as rice, sugar and cot

BMI View: At the time of writing the energy and macroeconomic dilemmas facing Japan are getting starker each day, with public opin

BMI View: Thermal energy continues to account for the almost all of Hong Kong’s domestic energy production; while there have been

2011 Another Strong Year For Polish Tourism According to preliminary data from Poland’s Institute of Tourism (Intur), there were 6

We forecast that Malaysia's mining industry value will reach MYR109.3bn by 2016, an annual average growth of 1.1% from 2011's esti

BMI View: Angola has one of the strongest economic growth outlooks in Sub-Saharan Africa, and we are unsurprisingly bullish on the

BMI View: Amid solid but unspectacular mining-led economic growth, we expect to see below-trend private consumption growth of 5.5%

BMI View: We expect robust private consumption growth in Mozambique over the course of our fiveyear forecast period to 2016. As th

BMI View: Strong private consumption growth from an already reasonably high base (Namibia is one of the wealthiest countries in Su

Core Views: France's economy is showing signs of a sharp economic slowdown in light of the deteriorating global macroeconomic back

BMI View: One of OPEC’s key oil producers, Kuwait’s rise in output will be relatively slow and steady. We see Kuwait producing aro

BMI View: On the one hand, Egypt is a significant LNG exporter and its Nile Delta and Western Desert prospects have attracted inde

While the Canadian metals market is set to be an outperformer, consumption growth will be insufficient to sustain output growth in

The threat of deindustrialisation hangs over the Brazilian steel and aluminium industries, which are facing increasing pressure fr

BMI View: UK IT spending is expected to reach US$86.2bn in 2012, up 2%, with BMI downwardly revising its forecast, following conti

BMI View: Saudi IT spending is expected to reach US$2.1bn in 2012, up 8%, with BMI upwardly revising its forecast after the PC mar

As Vietnam embarks on the costly process of modernising its armed forces, would-be partners from around the world have begun linin

Uganda’s defence expenditure is estimated to have risen 19.74% y-o-y in 2010, accounting for 12.9% of government spending. BMI exp

Following the crippling floods of late 2011, Thailand entered ‘recovery mode’ in early 2012, and began counting the cost of the di

Canada will spend up to US$18.5bn on defence for FY2011/12. Over the long term, the country’s defence budget is expected to grow t

Tourism Overview The recovery in foreign tourism in 2010 (after negative growth in 2009) accelerated last year. Complete prelimina

The Q312 update to BMI’s Swiss telecoms market report contains analyses of major developments in the telecoms market. It also cont

BMI’s Q312 report on the Philippines telecommunications market provides a comprehensive overview of the latest developments n the

The ongoing sale of the incumbent Bulgarian Telecommunications Company (Vivacom) is the major development in the Bulgarian market

An expanding population (especially in urban areas), rising consumer spending and the continued development of organised retail in

A low unemployment rate, rising disposable incomes and a strong tourism industry are helping to drive growth in Malaysia’s retail

Our current outlook on Bahrain’s consumer sector is cautiously optimistic, as consumer confidence looks like it is beginning to re

Core Views The UAE's reputation as a 'safe haven' in a volatile region will continue to serve the economy well, although growth wi

Core Views Rising security concerns, both domestically amid various feuding factions and internationally between Sudan and South S

Core Views We believe the South African economy will continue its uneven recovery over the medium term, with real GDP growth forec

Core Views We expect robust growth in the years ahead, bolstered primarily by the non-oil sectors, which will benefit from burgeon

Core Views We retain our broadly sanguine outlook on Kuwait's economic prospects for 2012. Elevated global hydrocarbon prices will

Core Views: We believe that Kenyan economic activity will pick up over the course of 2012 as inflation falls and monetary policy i

Core Views Despite heightened rhetoric, we do not believe Iran’s threats to close the Strait of Hormuz are credible. Any cut-off i

Core Views Not only is real GDP growth expected to surge in 2012 as the economy recovers from the 2011 crisis, but long-term growt

Core Views We are forecasting real GDP growth in Botswana of 4.2% in 2012 and 5.4% in 2013. The solid outlook is driven by growing

Core Views Venezuela faces major political and economic uncertainty in the run-up to and immediate aftermath of the October 2012 p

Core Views The below-par but sustained US recovery continues, in line with our view that the economy would avoid a double-dip rece

Core Views We have turned cautiously optimistic regarding Mexico's growth story, bumping up our average real GDP growth forecast f

Core Views Robust economic growth will continue to be driven primarily by strong private consumption levels, with consumer-focused

Core Views Blessed with favourable demographics, a large consumer base and a wealth of natural resources, Brazil offers some of th

Core Views The economy is recovering, but with fiscal cuts looming and unemployment stubbornly high, the rate of growth will be fa

Core Views We have revised our 2012 forecast for Swiss real GDP growth. Following estimated 2011 growth of 1.9%, our significantly

Political Ratings The political ratings are an indicator of political stability, seen as a prerequisite for a stable economy and b

Core Views We still expect the Hungarian economy to contract in real GDP terms in 2012 despite the strong Q411 growth figure. All

Core Views Germany’s manufacturing base will remain weighed down by weak foreign orders, while the fragility surrounding the respo

Core Views China's real GDP came in at 8.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) and 7.2% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) on a seasonally adjusted basi

Core Views We have revised our 2012 growth forecast downwards and expect real GDP growth to slow from 5.0% to 2.2%, compared with

Core Views The Indian National Congress (INC) lost heavily in the country's recent state elections. The ruling United Progressive

Core Views Latest indicators continue to point towards a slowdown in economic activity over the coming months, supporting our view

Core Views Looking ahead at the next fiscal year (FY2012/13, July-June), we expect a recovery in economic growth as domestic deman

Core Views Following 2011's disappointing GDP growth of 3.7%, we estimate that the Philippine economy will bounce back only increm

Core Views We expect Bulgaria’s economic growth to be weighed down by significantly weaker aggregate demand in the eurozone and pe

Composite Rating The composite rating is an unweighted geometric mean of the short-term political and short-term economy ratings,

Core Views The outlook for Croatia's economy in 2012 remains dour and we forecast a full-year contraction of 1.5% in real terms. A

Core Views Estonia's economic growth will slow to 2.7% in 2012 in real GDP terms, from 7.6% in 2011. While this remains the strong

BMI View: It is vital the Tanzanian government assesses its medicine procurement systems. The expiry of medicines does not bode we

BMI View: We have revised downwards our 2012 projections for the growth of the Latvian pharmaceutical market on account of weaker

BMI View: Bahrain has a far smaller oil and gas resource base than its neighbours, but is a leading regional refined products expo

BMI View: Saudi Arabia’s already buoyant construction sector was given a further boost in 2011, after a flurry of contracts worth

While the instability that threatens Iraq both internally and externally has hardly abated, there were some positive signs in earl

Colombia's government continues to wage its campaign against insurgent organisations and criminal gangs involved in narcotics prod

BMI View: We remain confident that Brazil’s construction industry will post strong growth over the medium term, fuelled by the gov

The Q312 update to BMI's Greece Telecommunications Report provides revised forecasts for the country's mobile, broadband and fixed

Tourism Overview Final data for 2011 record annual growth of almost 8% in foreign visitor arrivals in the hospitality sector. /

A great number of visitors will be travelling to the UK to attend or be a part of the 2012 Olympics and Paralympics in London. Whi

BMI View: Energy subsidies were under the spotlight again in January 2012, with President Cristina Fernández taking the decision t

Russian metals industries are set for a year of slowdown in 2012 as amid falling external demand and increasing financing constrai

BMI View: Qatar sits on the world’s third-largest proven gas reserves, which are concentrated in the offshore North Field, and the

BMI View: Plenty of work is needed if Nigeria is to extend market coverage and boost capacity, which is needed in order to ensure

The Q212 update to BMI's Portugal telecommunications market draws on data from the regulator Anacom and operators for the country’

BMI View: Fresh tender activity on centrepiece desalination projects in early 2012 is an encouraging sign that the authorities are

BMI View: Russian IT spending is expected to reach US$11.7bn in 2012, up 19%, with BMI upwardly revising its forecast after the PC

Recent developments support our view that Malaysia's real GDP growth will continue to slow in 2012. Should global economic headwin

BMI View: With production in terminal decline and few new projects expected to come onstream over the next decade, the Republic of

BMI View: The Nigerian pharmaceutical market continues to be seen as a risky proposition to multinationals. While the country’s oi

BMI View: Argentina’s infrastructure sector remains dependent to some extent on a US$10bn credit agreement from China. In addition

BMI View: In line with significantly revised GDP estimates from the Czech Statistical Office, the Czech Republic’s construction an

BMI View: Given the country’s increasingly ageing population and the consequential rise in noncommunicable diseases, Australia is

BMI View: We expect lower production growth for French grains in 2012/13, as cold snaps have destroyed parts of the wheat, barley

BMI View: Thanks to subdued demand growth, Slovakia should have reduced its net power import requirement significantly in 2011. Th

Since Q108, we have described numerically the banking business environment for each of the countries surveyed by BMI. We do this t

BMI View: Despite significant potential for exploration, we believe that unless new basins (or large fields in existing basins) ar

Executive Summary BMI View: Gabon must tempt new investment in exploration and production or face a decline in output as fields ma

BMI View: Oil and gas output will bounce back strongly in 2012 with production set to reach pre-war levels by mid-year. Over the l

BMI View: Crude output will rise slightly in the short term as output from Noble Energy’s new Aseng and Alen projects comes onstre

BMI View: Israel presents one of the most exciting hydrocarbon growth stories in the Middle East. While gas production is set to r

BMI View: With only limited conventional domestic reserves available, South Africa has learned to make efficient use of its natura

BMI View: Enhanced oil recovery schemes and investment from both IOCs and NOCs underscore our bullish outlook for the UAE’s oil se

BMI View: The outlook for Peru’s property market is positive, underpinned by strong economic growth and rising domestic consumptio

BMI View: With several new projects such as Pazflor (220,000b/d) and PSVM (150,000b/d) expected to come on-stream in the next few

Another Strong Year In 2011, Singapore welcomed 13,171,303 tourists, an increase of 13.1% year on year (y-o-y). This was very much

Saudi Arabia’s tourism industry is unique in that despite the limitations of strict entrance visa regulations, the industry has st

BMI View: In spite of substantial renewables potential, particularly in solar and wind sectors, Egypt looks set to remain over-dep

Italian crude steel output grew 11.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2011 to 28.66mn tonnes (mnt), securing its position as the EU’s seco

BMI View: Nuclear energy seems to have dropped out of contention for Kuwait, so in the near- to medium-term the country will be de

BMI View: The state-controlled power industry remains committed to the use of gas as its primary energy source, in spite of the gr

BMI View: Saudi Arabia’s power sector is among the most dynamic in the GCC, with contract awards piling up as the government execu

BMI's Q312 Central America Telecommunications report analyses and assesses the latest developments in the telecoms markets of seve

BMI’s North Africa telecoms market report contains analysis and forecasts for the mobile, fixed-line and internet sectors in four

BMI View: The sense of panic that prevailed in Bahrain through much of 2011 has dissipated. This is clearly a positive development

Following the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq, which was completed on December 18 2011, the country is now contemplating the eve

Core Views The Japanese economy contracted an estimated 0.7% in 2011, and we expect growth to continue to come under threat as vol

We expect Russia's mining industry value to reach RUB4.16trn (US$160bn) by 2016. Strong growth during 2009 to 2011 will be followe

Tourism Overview Although the final data for Dubai, which should be reasonably strong, has yet to be release, the tourism sector i

We expect Germany's mining sector value will decline over the coming years, falling to US$5.0bn by 2016, from US$5.6bn in 2011. Th

BMI View: Nuclear generation remains the first choice for the French power industry, but there are challenges ahead. A review by t

BMI View: Germany is standing at the crossroads of a new energy future. Whichever route the country takes, finding a suitable and

BMI View: In Britain, the power clock is ticking. Key decisions must be made and new policies implemented. Nuclear is to be a key

BMI View: Spain is considering a nuclear and renewables-based future, rather than continued dependence on fossil fuel; however, th

Japan’s arrival numbers have grown steadily since 2001. Although they took a hit in 2009, falling to less than 6.66mn after reachi

BMI View: Our five-year forecasts for the Swedish pharmaceutical market show a decline in its overall size, which is expected to f

BMI View: With declining production and few new projects expected to come on-stream in the next decade, Cameroon’s upstream oil ou

BMI View: The Italian public has said ‘no’ to nuclear, and Italy is now resigned to import dependency, the continued high-level us

BMI View: We have revised our power industry forecasts for the Nordic countries this quarter, after new historical data was releas

Core Views The Canadian economy faces major external headwinds from the US, Europe and, increasingly, China. However, Canada will

Core Views As we have previously highlighted, growth will slow in 2012 as wider eurozone growth softens and positive base effects

Core Views Belgium has enjoyed a robust recovery following the global financial crisis but is heavily exposed to turmoil in the eu

Canada's mining sector will continue to expand with an eye towards supplying global demand for metals and minerals. Because histor

Core Views Ireland's economy will contract in 2012 as fiscal austerity, household deleveraging and a recession in Europe weigh on

West Africa's mining sector is set to grow rapidly as investment pours into the region's phenomenal mineral wealth. Much of this g

BMI View: Plans to develop Iran’s nuclear capacity are central to the country’s power industry and its ability to meet its energy

BMI View: Due to rising inflation, estimated above 20%, we have adjusted Iran’s construction industry forecast down to -3% for 201

The Greek defence budget is expected to experience a serious reduction of around 16% compared to 2011 figures as austerity measure

Full year results for Mexican steel production came in at 18.1mn tonnes, which marked growth of 8.6% for 2011. This level was slig

Market Overview / BMI View:USA IT spending is expected to reach US$558bn in 2012, up 5.5%, with BMI upwardly revising its forecas

The Q312 BMI China Retail Report forecasts that the country’s total retail sales will increase by 29% in local currency terms by t

The government of Bulgaria remains focused on an armed forces modernisation initiative, which was launched to enhance compatibilit

While defence spending in much of the western world may be in the doldrums, Brazil continues to pour investment into its armed for

By the end of March 2012 it was still unclear whether the crisis surrounding Iran’s nuclear programme would reach a diplomatic or

The Q212 update to BMI’s report on telecoms markets of Kazakhstan and its four Central Asian neighbours incorporates new mobile su

BMI View: Brazil's mining sector is poised for a period of strong growth as domestic and foreign demand for mineral resources spur

BMI View: We expect Mexico to slow the rate of production decline that has plagued its vital oil sector over the short term, but t

BMI View: With several projects added or coming on stream in the next few years, such as Usan (180,000b/d) and Egina (150,000b/d-2

BMI View: As OPEC’s price enforcer and holder of most of the cartel’s spare oil production capacity, we expect Saudi Arabia to kee

BMI View: With the US economy remaining on course for a slow recovery and our Country Risk analysts maintaining their growth forec

BMI’s Q212 update on Nigeria’s telecommunications market is based on 2011 regulatory data from the Nigeria Communications Commissi

Indian metals production will hit headwinds in 2012 as market growth moderates in the face of a slowdown in the automotive industr

South Korean metals consumption growth is set to moderate sharply in 2012 as the country's exports of manufactured goods are hit b

The outlook for the Swedish steel industry looks favourable compared to the rest of Europe in 2012, but challenges facing the Euro

Restructuring efforts in the coal mining sector and a general lack of new base metal prospects lead us to forecast a slow decline

BMI had expected another quarter of strong growth in the mobile market in Q411 given the uptick in the market in Q311 and the trad

There are a variety of factors weighing heavily on the UK’s real estate market. The commercial sector is under pressure as a resul

BMI View: The vital US grains sector is expected to rebound in the 2012/13 season as soil conditions improve and high prices resul

BMI View: Times are tough for Trinidad & Tobago’s oil and gas industry, with 2011 oil output having slumped, and US demand for the

BMI View: Russia’s power sector faces a host of challenges. There is no disputing the size of the market and the potential for dom

BMI View: Oman does not have the massive resource endowment of its Arab Gulf neighbours, but the country does retain significant u

The earthquake in Japan in March 2011 will have a significant bearing on the country's metals industry for years to come. In the s

BMI View: The future of the country’s power sector is largely dependent on nuclear and renewables, although gas has a key role to

BMI View: Hungary is currently subject to modest power demand growth, relatively high electricity pricing and must make some tough

BMI View: Kazakhstan has near-term issues because of its inadequate power supply and longer-term decisions to make over nuclear po

BMI View: While Romania’s plans to greatly expand its nuclear generation capacity are in disarray, there is growing support for th

BMI View: Ukraine’s dependence on Russia for gas is a problem, as it exposes the country to import volatility and ongoing price di

BMI View: Following the 2008 financial crisis, the UAE’s construction sector is gradually recovering with public investments now d

Moderate Rise In Tourism Arrivals In 2011 / In 2011, Malaysia welcomed over 24.71mn tourists, an increase of 0.6% year on year (y

BMI View: With construction and energy projects worth US$125bn planned over the coming years, Qatar's construction industry will s

BMI View: The Qatar Water & Electricity Company (Kahramaa) has set out a five-pronged strategy for the emirate’s water sector to e

The Taiwanese steel industry is bracing itself for a year of contraction in output as it faces increasingly hostile domestic and r

Zimbabwe's mining sector is set for rapid development as the country dramatically recovers from two decades of declining output. Z

The French steel industry held up well in 2011, but 2012 promises to be a more challenging year with the automotive and constructi

BMI View: Construction activity in Hong Kong has moderately improved in the second half of 2011, with an increase in land supply b

BMI’s Q212 report on the telecommunications market of Cambodia and Laos provides a comprehensive overview of the latest developmen

The German steel market is losing momentum and steel-makers are likely to review their operations in the country over coming month

BMI View: Severe droughts in Spain's main growing regions in recent months have severely affected grain crops during plantings. As

Modest growth in Dutch demand for steel in 2012 will be outweighed by a sharp drop in exports, leading to a contraction in domesti

The Spanish steel industry is facing a second year of contraction in 2012 with both the domestic and export markets under pressure

High energy costs and an increasingly hostile operating environment prompted the permanent closure of the Lynemouth primary alumin

BMI has reorganised the Caribbean Telecommunications Report by country, rather than sector. As sectors merge it become increasingl

Metals Sector Cautiously Optimistic As Recovery Strengthens / BMI View: We forecast modest growth in the US metals sector as the

BMI View: Our robust outlook for Cambodia's construction sector in 2011 appears well-founded, with the number of approved projects

BMI View: According to the latest data released by the Central Organisation for Statistics, Iraq’s construction sector has been bo

Our outlook for Qatar’s consumer sector – the food and drink sector in particular – remains positive in line with the rosy outlook

BMI View: Clean coal, nuclear and renewables all form part of the long-term energy plan, although it would be a surprise to see th

BMI View: A number of factors have prompted us to revise our forecasts for Canada’s power sector. As part of a revision of our his

In this quarter's update of BMI's Finland Telecommunications Market Report, relatively few changes have been made to our forecasts

The latest Q212 update to BMI’s Netherlands Telecoms Report contains analysis of the latest trends and developments in the telecom

BMI View: Ghana’s nascent oil and gas industry is set to undergo a transformation over the next few years as the Jubilee and Great

The figures reported by Mexico's retail association attest to the weakness in the Mexican consumer sector earlier in 2011, with co

The defence posture of Germany has been controversial domestically since the end of World War II, and little is likely to change i

Along with several other countries in the eurozone, Italy is currently in the middle of a severe financial crisis that is causing

The relationship between the Philippines and the Unites States was firmly in the spotlight in early 2012, as the US military’s Joi

Singapore took centre stage in the defence world as it held the biannual Singapore Air Show in February 2012. Now Asia’s most impo

Upon the death of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il in December 2011, the outlook for the Korean peninsula became uncertain even by

Despite the euphoria in South Sudan over independence and international recognition in mid-2011, relations between Juba and Kharto

The re-election of President Ma Ying-jeou in January 2012 was a victory for the status quo in relations between Taiwan and the Peo

Most Central American economies have improved their resilience to external shocks in recent years, primarily through the diversifi

Further fiscal austerity, falling house prices, and household deleveraging will combine with a weaker external demand environment

The short-term domestic demand conditions in South Korea are expected to be constrained by household debt deleveraging and a deter

We expect a slow recovery of the US economy during the current year, on the back of improving employment figures and also strength

BMI View: Canadian IT spending is expected to reach US$3.5bn in 2012, up 4%, with BMI downwardly revising its forecast due to expe

BMI View: Qatari IT spending is expected to reach US$533mn in 2012, up 15%, with BMI upwardly revising its forecast after the PC m

BMI View: Slovenian IT spending is expected to reach US$1.0bn in 2012, up 4% on 2011, when IT services vendors reported a slightly

BMI View: South Korean IT spending is expected to reach US$18.7bn in 2012, up 4%, with consumer and business segment IT growth exp

BMI View: Swedish IT spending is expected to reach US$16.6bn in 2012, up 2%, with BMI downwardly revising its forecast as the poss

BMI View: UAE IT spending is expected to reach US$3.8bn in 2012, up 5%, with BMI upwardly revising its forecast after the PC marke

BMI View: Vietnamese IT spending is expected to reach US$2.5bn in 2012, up 14%, with BMI upwardly revising its forecast after the

BMI View: Our outlook for 2012 remains largely in place, with a return to growth anticipated, albeit minimal at 0.7% real growth,

We expect Indonesia's mining industry value to almost double from US$82.6bn in 2010 to US$143bn in 2016. Growth will be driven by

BMI View: We continue to believe the Belarusian pharmaceutical market has long-term potential due to the country’s favourable geog

BMI View: While it is clear the implementation of a medicine pricing policy will help to control public pharmaceuticals and health

BMI View: Energy subsidies were under the spotlight again in January 2012, with President Cristina Fernández taking the decision t

BMI View: Chile’s President Sebastián Piñera and energy minister Rodrigo Álvarez announced Chile’s National Energy Strategy in Feb

BMI View: Two auctions, one held in late-December 2011 and a second in late-January 2012, give a clear indication as to which dire

BMI View: If investment levels remain on target, Malaysia could create a significant net power export capability, with Indonesia k

BMI View: Renewables and nuclear energy will both play a key role in Mexican energy provision over the medium term. In Sener’s Nat

BMI View: Pakistan has a plethora of potentially varied and rich power options from which to choose. There is vast untapped hydro

BMI View: The Peruvian government has stressed that the country is not facing an energy crisis, with production guaranteed to meet

BMI View: The Venezuelan government continues to make extensive promises about raising generating energy capacity to meet demand,

The Q212 telecommunications market report for Denmark provides an analysis of operator performance and market development based on

Saudi Arabia’s mobile sector experienced its first ever quarterly negative growth in Q411, following net losses of 2.4mn subscribe

One of the major themes in this quarter’s update to BMI’s telecommunications market for Southern Africa is the increasing investme

The mobile market continued to grow in Q411, reaching 322.49mn subscribers. Most of the gains were in the postpaid sector. The num

Final provisional figures for 2011 show annual growth in foreign tourism broadly slowed during the course of the year but remained

The medium-term macroeconomic outlook across emerging Europe has improved considerably since the beginning of H209, when Central a

BMI View: While the broader political challenges facing Egypt are considerable, with no real clarity over a future government’s at

We expect private consumption to contract by 0.5% in real terms in 2012 as fiscal consolidation and wider economic uncertainty dep

Core Forecasts / Tourist arrivals into Indonesia for 2011 totalled 7,649,731, up by 9.24% y-o-y. The full-year figure is very muc

BMI View: Nuclear power generation is not yet in Indonesia’s immediate plans but remains a credible long-term option. In the meant

The Czech steel industry is likely to enter recession in 2012 as exports come under pressure amid a slump in European demand, acco

Steel production was significantly weaker than BMI had expected from Q411 and going into 2012 as both the domestic and external en

BMI View: Singaporean IT spending is expected to reach US$6.4bn in 2012, up 5%, with BMI downwardly revising its forecast as a slo

BMI View: Macroeconomic factors have led us to revise down our forecast for Brazilian IT spending in 2012; we now expect it to rea

BMI View: The major players in Asian power supply are clamouring to invest in Cambodia, with the result that huge capacity expansi

The Belgian steel industry is set for a poor year with a sharp downturn in external demand leading to the closure of domestic prod

Austria will not escape the effects of the eurozone debt crisis and its effects on downstream industries, notably the automotive i

BMI View: With investment flowing into a series of development projects, the short-term outlook for the Bolivian gas sector is pos

BMI View: Oil output will continue to edge higher over the next few years as production from new developments offsets declining vo

Despite its growth opportunities, the Vietnamese telecoms industry remains relatively unattractive in the short term due to the do

BMI View: Argentina’s energy sector needs all the help it can get, so the resource upgrade at Vaca Muerta is highly encouraging. H

The temporary boost to Japanese private consumption in the aftermath of the Tohoku earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster has al

BMI View: Egypt's IT market is forecast to increase to US$1.7bn in 2012, up by around 8%, with our projection remaining unchanged

BMI View: Australian IT spending is expected to reach US$21.6bn in 2012, up 4%, with BMI expecting a deceleration. The market shou

After sharp falls in property values following the global financial crisis, Ukraine’s property sector began to recover in 2010. Th

The Greek government has overcome a number of key obstacles in recent weeks that have averted a potentially disastrous and disorde

Construction contributes around 5% of Argentina's GDP, a percentage that is set to increase only marginally in future. But the con

We see little scope for improvement in consumer confidence levels in Slovakia in the course of the year. Although the new governme

Weaker credit extension has prompted us to revise down our 2012 private consumption growth forecast to -0.2%, from 0.2% previously

The high level of exposure to the ongoing eurozone debt crisis suggests a more challenging economic outlook for Germany. However,

BMI View: Data for 2011 from the Ministry of Agriculture and Lands demonstrate mixed results for the first year of President Hugo

BMI View: In spite of the volatile licensing and regulatory environment, Ecuador continues to attract some international investmen

BMI View: Venezuela’s pharmaceutical industry will face increasingly harsh pricing policy which is unlikely to tackle the persiste

BMI View: New population data for 2011 show the size of the expatriate population in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has been under

Tourism Overview / Latest figures for the first 11 months of 2011 (excluding unavailable data for October) show negative growth i

BMI’s Q212 Israel Retail Report forecasts that the country’s retail sales will grow from an expected ILS153.84bn (US$42.91bn) in 2

BMI’s Q212 Kuwait Retail Report forecasts that the country’s retail sales will grow from an expected KWD2.36bn (US$8.78bn) in 2012

We forecast that Saudi Arabia’s retail sales will grow from an estimated SAR608.08bn (US$162.37bn) in 2012 to SAR823.68bn (US$219.

We forecast that South Africa’s retail sales will grow by 47.4% from ZAR683.91bn (US$82.68bn) in 2012 to ZAR1.01trn (US$121.90bn)

The Q212 BMI UAE Retail report forecasts that the country’s retail sales will grow from an estimated AED124.07bn (US$33.78bn) in 2

Tourism Overview / Latest figures for the first 11 months of 2011 show modest growth of 2.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) in tourist arri

BMI View: We have revised our India power industry forecasts this quarter, following the release of new historical data by the cou

BMI’s Q212 Egypt Retail Report forecasts that the country’s retail sales will grow from an expected EGP194.21bn (US$35.76bn) in 20

BMI View: We forecast steady growth in grains output over the short term in Canada, as we do not believe the recent decision to en

BMI View: Lithuania’s drug market is expected to post a gradual recovery over the next five years, but with a short-term worsening

BMI View: Nuclear energy remains a possibility for the Philippines, with plenty of interest from Asian countries in salvaging the

Domestic demand will be the crucial factor spurring Polish metals production growth over the coming months as the economy bucks th

Although the Romanian steel industry will not be immune from the European economic downturn, an expected decline in exports will b

BMI’s Q212 report on the Russian telecommunications market provides analysis of operator performance and market development based

BMI View: Japan’s nuclear woes following the 2011 earthquake and tsunami appear to have done little to derail South Korea’s plans

BMI’s Q212 report on South Korea’s telecommunications market provides a comprehensive overview of the latest developments to occur

BMI View: While the 2.7% real growth recorded by the UK construction industry in 2011 compares favourably to GDP growth of 1%, the

BMI View: Infighting between local authorities and key refinery operator Lukoil hardly bodes well for the downstream oil segment,

The Canadian growth outlook remains relatively positive. The country’s economy grew by 2.4% in real terms in 2011, which was a cha

BMI View: Hong Kong IT spending is expected to reach US$5.5bn in 2012, up 5%, with BMI's forecast unchanged although a potential c

BMI View: South Africa is one of the most developed markets in the region from a business environment and regulatory standpoint. H

BMI View: Following a downgrade in Q1 2012 to account for macroeconomic headwinds, this quarter we largely maintain our forecasts

BMI View: Subdued oil demand growth means the prospects for refiners and fuels distributors – which are already facing strong comp

BMI View: Oil sands-based liquids supply and shale gas production form the foundation of Canada’s energy supply outlook. Conventio

BMI’s Q212 update to the UAE’s telecommunications market report incorporates market data from the Telecommunications Regulatory Au

BMI View: Thailand is capable of avoiding an increase in power import dependency if it attracts sufficient investment, but the cou

Following the release of 2011 end-of-year results for the three major operators, Singapore Telecommunications’ Optus, Telstra and

Qatar's mobile market recorded its slowest growth yet in 2011, with total net additions of just 31,000 subscribers for the entire

The Q212 update of BMI's Sweden Telecommunications Market Report utilises the latest data published by the country's incumbent ope

BMI View: The Iraqi government aims to encourage more foreign investment in the country’s healthcare system, with a recent report

Market Overview / BMI View: French IT spending is expected to reach US$46.4bn in 2012, up 1%, with BMI downwardly revising its fo

BMI View: The Association of Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN) is becoming increasingly attractive to foreign investors given the ass

BMI View: Canada's construction industry will continue to outperform its developed market peers over the medium term, driven by st

Despite the bleak horizon outlined in our Q112 report, the US commercial real estate market is exhibiting signs of a recovery, alb

The latest data on real GDP growth reinforce our view that Ghana is at the beginning of a multi-year economic boom fuelled by the

France’s business environment remains among the best in the world. This is underpinned by a welleducated and highly skilled workfo

BMI View: Belgium, much like most of the other regional markets, is expected to post negative year-onyear (y-o-y) value growth in

The Spanish defence community finds itself in a similar position to many nations throughout Europe. On the one hand, Spain's gover

The first two months of 2012 has seen the internal unrest that erupted in Syria in 2011 steadily worsen, as popular uprisings agai

With what has been largely judged to be a successful military intervention in Libya under the auspices of NATO’s Operation Unified

BMI View: We believe that construction activity in Taiwan could remain relatively lacklustre in 2012 and have revised down our con

BMI View: Turkmenistan could potentially benefit from a gas export bonanza, with a major reserves upgrade at the South Yolotan fie

BMI View: Seemingly endless gas pricing disputes with Russia colour the Ukraine’s energy landscape, putting pressure on the countr

France continues to maintain one of the world’s largest armed forces and the largest combined military service in Western Europe.

In announcing the selection of the Dassault Rafale as the Indian Air Force (IAF)’s new medium multirole combat aircraft (MMRCA) at

In an announcement that could have far-reaching implications for South East Asia’s strategic landscape, Defence Minister Purnomo Y

Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda visited Okinawa in late February 2012 amid hopes that a long-running controversy over the basing of

Political turmoil, fragile security and tense relations with both Afghanistan and the United States meant that early 2012 was as u

As we previously noted, the consumer outlook for Belarus will remain extremely challenging, with inflation expected to skyrocket.

We expect households to be hard hit over 2012, with unemployment at 9.9% (a 12 year high) and likely to rise further and leading i

Heightened consumer price sensitivity will remain a dominant theme in India over the coming quarters, with tight credit conditions

Growth in the consumer sector has consistently been a bright spot in Nigeria's economy, with many of the fastest-growing industrie

Whereas a vigorous labour market and strong tourist arrival growth will provide some support for domestic demand, private consumpt

Slovenia is a developed food and drink market, served by modern mass grocery retail network. Its maturity, combined with the small

We are acknowledging growing downside risks to our domestic demand outlook for Thailand in the coming quarters. Consumers are like

In the decade ahead, Ukraine’s GDP per capita is expected to remain one of the lowest in Europe. While there is still enormous unr

Private consumption was pretty strong in the latter stages of 2011, a trend which is likely to be continued in the early stages of

BMI View: A highly uncertain political set-up and vulnerability to the eurozone debt crisis are likely to act as major dampeners f

BMI View: Sitting on the outskirts of the EU, Bulgaria’s investment environment has been badly dented by lack of confidence in the

BMI View: Strong resource demand continues to drive Kazakhstan’s construction industry, with yearon- year (y-o-y) growth of 6.0% f

BMI View: South Africa’s severe hangover from pre-World Cup excesses continues to weigh heavily on the growth outlook for the cons

From 2012 to 2016 the metals industry in China will be facing a period of steady declines in demand and supply growth. On the dema

The international sanctions regime is severely curtailing Iran’s trade in steel, which is boosting short-term output but will thre

South African metals production is faced with the twin challenges of rising input costs and an increasingly difficult market over

The Turkish steel industry is being supported by a dynamic economy that made it one of the fastestgrowing in the world in 2011, ac

Growth in Morocco's mining sector will remain steady over our 2012-2016 forecast period and is set to average 3.1% y-o-y. Aided by

We maintain our view that Peru's mining sector will grow strongly over our forecast period driven primarily by investments into co

BMI View: While exploiting shale gas may be a distant prospect for Chile, it will seek foreign participation in this area as its c

BMI View: Denmark is hoping that it can avoid becoming an oil importer for another few years, despite declining near-term producti

BMI View: Subdued oil demand growth means the prospects for refiners and fuels distributors – already facing strong competition an

BMI View: For a country keen to wean itself off of fossil fuels, the decision to phase out nuclear energy represents a fresh and u

BMI View: Aside from the country’s well-publicised economic challenges, Italy is at a crossroads in terms of energy market develop

BMI View: While Peru's oil and gas sector is in a period of transition following the election of President Ollanta Humala in June

BMI View: Given Romania’s long history of oil/gas reserves and production, it would be surprising if renewed exploration efforts d

BMI View: Times are tough for Trinidad & Tobago’s oil and gas industry, with 2011 oil output having slumped, and US demand for the

BMI View: By supplying oil to Syria, Venezuela may have exposed itself to the threat of sanctions. The ill health of President Hug

The Brazilian petrochemicals market has considerable potential for growth, with plastics consumption at 32kg per capita, less than

Spanish chemicals and plastics producers will witness a year of flat growth at best in 2012 as they face an increasingly hostile o

The floods in Thailand in 2011 were the worst in 50 years and had a temporary and limited immediate effect on the petrochemicals i

According to the American Chemistry Council (ACC), the US Chemical Production Regional Index (CPRI) – a three month moving average

BMI View: Chile’s pharmaceutical market is expected to become an increasingly attractive proposition for multinational companies a

BMI View: We retain our negative outlook for the pharmaceutical market in the Czech Republic, expecting a 1.8% contraction in its

BMI View: While Ghana’s business environment is superior to that of almost all of its neighbours in West and Central Africa, its d

BMI View: The challenges facing drugmakers in Greece in 2012 will be considerably tougher than those faced in 2011. With the intro

BMI View: India’s pharmaceutical market is highly attractive to drugmakers but it also has several negative characteristics. Combi

BMI View: Morocco’s pharmaceutical and healthcare market developments this year will be shaped by the delayed rollout of the natio

The Slovakian pharmaceutical market will be shaped by the introduction of new, strict costcontainment measures, which include legi

BMI View: While the strength of the UK’s pharmaceutical manufacturing industry is significant, the sector will face considerable c

BMI View: The attractiveness of the Vietnamese pharmaceutical market to foreign investors will continue to be hampered by the coun

BMI View: With our Country Risk analysts forecasting that the Vietnamese economy will continue to cool over the coming quarters (w

Bosnia & Herzegovina (BiH) officially came out of its recession towards the end of 2010. The impetus came largely from strong grow

Chile’s real estate market is continuing its buoyancy from 2010 and 2011. Despite new supply, absorption rates are generally holdi

There are signs of healthy recovery in the Czech Republic’s real estate market after our 2011 full year data collection, mainly be

Hungary’s real estate market, like so many others, was seriously damaged by the global financial crisis. An uptick in demand for o

Since Q108, we have described numerically the banking business environment for each of the countries surveyed by BMI. We do this t

Slovakia has undergone a slow process of recovery and the country’s heavy dependence on external factors for its economic growth p

Venezuela’s real estate sector is like none other in Latin America. In essence, the government – and, thanks to a variety of popul

BMI’s Q212 Bahrain Retail Report forecasts that the country’s retail sales will rise from an / expected BHD0.59bn (US$1.56bn) in

BMI’s update to the report on the telecommunications markets of East Africa contains five-year forecasts for the fixed-line teleph

This update of BMI’s France Telecommunications Report includes data analysis of the four key telecoms markets – mobile, fixed-line

End-2011 results for Singapore’s telecoms industry have been made been available by the Infocomm Development Authority (IDA) as we

This quarter’s update on Taiwan’s telecoms market incorporates the latest operational data published by the three largest telecoms

Through to 2008, tourist arrivals to Australia had been steadily growing since 2004. In 2003, arrival numbers fell by 1% due to co

BMI Still Upbeat About Hong Kong Tourism Last year was another record-breaking year for inbound Hong Kong tourism. Full-year touri

BMI View: ADWEA, the Gulf’s most prominent developer of desalinated water projects, is set to announce the location of its next IW

The Bulgarian consumer outlook will remain challenging over the short- to medium-term at least. Issues / such as economic difficul

The Hungarian consumer outlook will continue to provide little optimism for food and drink companies. / The country’s economy is e

With Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) characterised by a weak economic outlook and largely poor / demographics, Romania still hold

Ongoing disinflation, low unemployment and relatively low household leverage suggest that domestic / demand conditions in Russia w

BMI View: China's IT spending growth is forecast at around 14% in 2012, which is a slight slowdown, / compared with 2011. Despite

BMI View: The German IT market is forecast to increase to US$61.4bn in 2012, up by around 2%, with / our projection downwardly rev

BMI View: Indian IT spending is expected to reach US$20.7bn in 2012, up 14%, with indications that / organisations in key IT spend

BMI View: Israeli IT spending is expected to reach US$6.1bn in 2012, up 6%, consolidating a recovery / in 2011 from the impact of

BMI View: Kuwait IT spending is expected to reach US$939mn in 2012, up 9%, with BMI upwardly / revising its forecast after the PC

BMI View: Malaysian IT spending is expected to reach US$5.2bn in 2012, up 4.9%, consolidating a / recovery from the impact of the

While the 4.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) real growth we estimate took place within Egypt's construction / sector in 2011 can be viewed

Latest data suggest that the rebound seen in H111 weakened significantly in the second half of the year. / Indeed, slower real GDP

The Egyptian steel industry is faced with major challenges over 2012 with political instability, a removal / of energy subsidies,

Despite Price Volatility Mining Sector Outlook Is Favourable / With several mining projects coming online in 2012, we expect the m

In Q212, we are sticking with our mid-term forecasts for Namibia's mining sector. We project the / industry to grow by 4.0% in 20

The Tanzanian mining industry is relatively small in terms of value, but its importance is highlighted by / the fact that mining e

BMI View: Unconventional shale gas and tight oil production continue to make waves in the US market, / drastically altering domest

Indonesia continues to attract investment in its petrochemicals industry, which is insufficient to cover / domestic demand, accord

The Philippines’ market for chemicals and plastics is likely to be buoyant in 2012, assisted by strong / government spending on in

BMI View: In line with BMI’s view that public healthcare spending in Saudi Arabia would be greatly / boosted by government initiat

In our most recent round of in-country interviews, conducted in December 2011, commercial rental / growth in Mexico had been fairl

After two years of tough austerity, we are expecting a loosening of fiscal policy in 2012. In addition a / recent improvement in t

Despite its maturity, the German mobile market reported over 114mn subscribers in 2011, exhibiting the / fastest growth rate since

In this quarter's update on Ghana's telecoms market, we have incorporated the YE11 data from the National / Communications Authori

BMI's latest report on the Indian telecoms market provides a comprehensive overview of the latest / developments in the mobile, fi

Q311 data from the regulator, along with preliminary Q411/YE2011 data from key players Telecom Italia / and Vodafone as well as br

BMI’s Q212 update on Kuwait’s telecommunications market contains the latest sector news and / developments, as well as financial i

BMI's Q212 update to the Poland Telecommunications report draws on data from Poland's fixed-line, / broadband, mobile and pay-TV o

The Q212 update to BMI’s Romania Telecommunications Report contains analysis of the market data / from the major fixed telephony,

Zambia's mining sector is set to continue the recovery seen over the last decade. The country had / declining copper output throug

In a move that has the potential to change the strategic picture in the Asia Pacific region, Australia and / the US agreed in Nove

Argentina's IT market is forecast to increase to US$5.0bn in 2012, up by around 9%, a moderation / compared with 2011, when the PC

BMI has downwardly revised its growth expectations for the Hungary IT market in 2012 against the / backdrop of a continued difficu

Thai IT spending is expected to reach US$6.7bn in 2012, up 9%, although the PC market was / severely / hit by the 2011 floods. Du

BMI View: The strong growth seen over 2011 is expected to moderate in 2012; however, activity will / remain robust, accelerating i

BMI View: Colombia’s deficient infrastructure remains its biggest obstacle to achieving economic / growth. However, President Sant

Kenya / BMI View: Kenya's booming construction industry has faced significant headwinds, as rampant inflation / - due to a weak sh

BMI View: The latest data reinforces our view that Ecuador's construction industry witnessed a stellar / 2011, as elevated oil pri

BMI View: A worsening outlook for the French economy has resulted in BMI downgrading its forecast / for the country’s construction

BMI View: Greece's construction industry is expected to remain in recession for the sixth consecutive / year in 2012, and we do no

BMI View: The recovery in Malaysia's construction sector has continued unabated, with real growth / estimated to have reached 3.4%

BMI View: Our forecast that Mexico’s construction industry would post robust, if not spectacular, / growth over 2011 has proven tr

Botswana / BMI View: Botswana's construction industry is in line for robust average annual growth of 5% between / 2012 and 2016, a

Ghana / BMI View: Ghana has a nascent oil and gas sector which, as it grows, will drive demand for auxiliary / infrastructure. Thi

Political stability in Yemen has deteriorated quickly. Large-scale anti-regime protests have turned violent, / and the government

The premiums written by China’s life insurers in 2011 were about 10% lower than they had been in the / preceding year. At a time o

A key trend over the last two years or so has been the sale by Malaysian interests (often financial holdings / companies) of stak

Growth in Mongolia's mining industry will be led by a rampant increase in coal, copper and gold / production. The bulk of this gro

We maintain our medium-term forecasts for Mozambique's mining sector as a number of major projects / remain on course to enter the

BMI View: Project delays remain the key threat to an Azeri energy sector capable of delivering much greater / volumes and revenues

BMI View: The discovery of billions of barrels of oil in the so-called subsalt oil province offshore / Brazil has been one of the

BMI View: Uncertainty over LNG hangs over the Croatian energy sector, with a decision over a proposed / Adriatic hub still a year

BMI View: Refining capacity looks set to shrink thanks to unfavourable economics, while long-term / exploration upside potential h

BMI View: Near-term energy demand trends are uncertain, given the perilous economic outlook facing the / country. Investment in in

BMI View: While national energy group MOL has great plans for the Central European region, it can do little / to ease Hungary’s gr

BMI View: Despite widespread strikes and protest in the oil-rich province of Mangystau, our outlook for / Kazakhstan remains broad

BMI View: Norway’s oil production may be in decline, but it retains considerable upside gas potential and / should continue to be

BMI View: As a net importer of energy, Slovakia faces the challenge of securing long-term gas supply without / becoming too depend

BMI View: There are glimmers of hope in the upstream segment, with new gas finds capable of improving / energy self-sufficiency an

BMI View: The pace of economic recovery and renewed growth is critical to Spain’s energy market, as it will / drive the country’s

BMI View: Proving up Black Sea gas deposits is a priority for Turkey, as this will enable it to reduce its / dependence on importe

BMI View: Conventional gas deposits should enable the country to boost its output and exports, with some / surplus gas apparently

BMI View: Oil output will continue to edge higher over the next few years as production from new / developments offsets declining

Expansionary fiscal policy and product price stabilisation should lead to an improved performance in the / Chinese petrochemicals

There is growing uncertainty over the Indian petrochemicals industry due to the volatility of the rupee and / high feedstock price

The operating environment of South African petrochemicals will become increasingly hostile over the / medium-term due to a slacken

Abu Dhabi is on course for massive expansion in its olefins and polyolefins capacities, paving the way for / more product diversif

BMI View: Bahrain is a developed pharmaceutical market with patented drug spending accounting for / over 83% of the total pharmace

BMI View: Brazil remains the most attractive emerging pharmaceutical market in the Americas due to its / large population, strong

BMI View: 2012 is a very important year for the country as the government look to carry on their / achievements following the heal

BMI View: Indonesia is a high growth pharmaceutical market driven by rising domestic consumption / and government spending on heal

BMI View: On the positive side, Russia’s pharmaceutical market should regain double-digit US dollar / growth from 2013 and the app

BMI View: Corruption continues to be a major problem within state healthcare services in Serbia. The / government are taking measu

This quarter's update of BMI's Telecommunications Report on Malaysia utilises the latest available data / from the country's leadi

Positive Outlook In 2012 / Data released by the Caribbean Tourism Organisation (CTO) in January 2012 showed the majority of / Cari

Tourism Overview / Based on data from the Association of Greek Tourism Enterprises (SETE), the number of tourists arriving / at th

Mexico Posts Growth In 2011 – Just / Data released by Secretaría de Turismo (Ministry of Tourism, Sectur) in February 2012 showed

Tourism Overview / The latest available preliminary national data on the number of foreign visitor arrivals to Russia, for the / f

BMI View: Saudi Arabia has started 2012 in an active mode, with the signing of a major corporate loan / for the main power and wat

Core Views / D riven by strong investment in its promising subsalt oil reserves / and by a boom in exports from its already develo

Core Views / Although growth opportunities exist across a range of consumeroriented / sectors, Argentina's investment environment

Core Views / After a robust showing in 2011, with growth at 3.1%, we forecast / the Austrian economy to post significantly slower

Core Views / Public unrest owing to heightened tensions between the ruling Awami / League (AL) and its main opposition, the Bangla

Core Views / Belarus will avoid recession this year owing to Russian financial / support and positive trade dynamics. However, the

Composite Rating / The composite rating is an unweighted geometric mean of the short-term political and short-term economy ratings

Composite Rating / The composite rating is an unweighted geometric mean of the short-term political and short-term economy ratings

Core Views / Broadly in line with consensus, we believe Colombia will become a / regional outperformer in 2012. / Private consumpt

Core Views / We expect weakened external demand to hit the Czech Republic's / economic growth hard in 2012. The Czech economy rema

Core Views / Despite increasing inflation, a difficult business environment, and / an unstable political situation, BMI is predict

Core Views / We are forecasting Ethiopian real GDP growth of 7.8% in 2012 and / 7.2% in 2013, a moderation from the estimated 8.8%

Core Views / The Greek economy will remain mired in depression through 2012 as / deep fiscal retrenchment and internal devaluation

Core Views / We remain generally optimistic that Iceland's economy can pull itself / out of its present malaise. However, there wi

Core Views / I ndonesia is likely to continue to outperform its peers in 2012, as we / are pencilling in strong 5.8% growth follow

Core Views / Elevated risks of instability in Israel's neighbours, including Jordan, / Lebanon, Syria, and the West Bank and Gaza,

Core Views / The new technocratic government led by Mario Monti will embark on / a last-ditch attempt to restructure the economy a

Composite Rating / The composite rating is an unweighted geometric mean of the short-term political and short-term economy ratings

Composite Rating / The composite rating is an unweighted geometric mean of the short-term political and short-term economy ratings

Core Views / The Lithuanian economy will continue along its road of gradual economic / recovery following its painful internal dev

Core Views / We believe that a full resolution to the name dispute with Greece is / highly unlikely in the foreseeable future. The

Core Views / Growth in 2012 is expected to pick up from 2011 as agricultural / output hampered by flooding recovers and mining pro

Core Views / The Dutch economy's growth outlook is set to seriously deteriorate / in the coming quarters, as the eurozone sovereig

Core Views / With households still in the midst of deleveraging and weakening / external conditions, New Zealand's real GDP growth

Composite Rating / The composite rating is an unweighted geometric mean of the short-term political and short-term economy ratings

Core Views / Peruvian growth will be among the strongest in Latin America over / the medium term. Our real GDP growth forecasts ar

Core Views / Portugal is in the midst of a deep recession that will last until at least / 2013. We do not see substantially higher

Core Views / Qatar’s short-term political risk profile remains among the most / stable in the region. Despite enjoying little in t

Core Views / Romania's return to growth has so far been driven primarily by / external demand for Romanian exports. As the eurozon

Core Views / We are forecasting Rwandan real GDP growth of 7.5% in 2012 and / 7.6% in 2013, a slight moderation from the estimated

Core Views / We expect South Korea's real GDP growth to slow to a belowconsensus / 1.9% in 2012. China has recently lowered its GD

Core Views / Sweden's status as an open trade-oriented economy means that / the ongoing European economic crisis poses significant

Core Views / We believe that real GDP growth in Tanzania will slow to 5.5% in / 2012, from an estimated 6.2% in 2011, as high infl

Core Views / We believe that economic recovery in Thailand will remain relatively / subdued in 2012 as a return to full production

Core Views / We reiterate that Turkey's economy is set to undergo a sharp slowdown / in 2012. A combination of weak external activ

Core Views / Ukraine's economic recovery lost some momentum heading into the / second quarter of 2011 and a deteriorating global g

Core Views / Zambia will post strong growth in the years ahead, although our / below-consensus view on external factors, particula

Argentina’s domestic consumer electronics devices market, defined as the addressable market for / computing devices, mobile handse

Bahrain’s consumer electronics devices market, defined as the addressable market for / computing devices, / mobile handsets and A

China’s consumer electronics devices market, defined to include computing devices, mobile handsets and / video, audio and gaming p

Colombia’s consumer electronics devices market, defined as the addressable market for / computing / devices, mobile handsets and

Hungary’s consumer electronics devices market, defined as the addressable market for computing / devices, mobile handsets and vide

Iran’s consumer electronics devices market, defined as the addressable market for computing devices, / mobile handsets and video,

Mexico’s consumer electronics devices market, defined as the addressable market for computing devices, / mobile handsets and AV pr

Oman’s consumer electronics devices market, defined as the addressable market for computing devices, / mobile handsets and video,

Venezuela’s consumer electronics devices market, defined as the addressable market for computing / devices, mobile handsets and vi

China faced two potentially serious internal challenges to its stability in early 2012. A village uprising in / Wukan, Guangdong,

Libya emerged, for all intents and purposes, as a new country following the death of its former leader / Colonel Muammar Qadhafi o

The acquittal of Anwar Ibrahim, the leader of opposition coalition Pakatan Rakyat (PR), on politically / inspired sodomy charges i

South Africa’s defence force remains the most advanced on the continent and operates with a consistent / focus on training and red

Turkey continues to face security challenges both at home and abroad; a trend which looks set to persist / throughout 2012. Turkis

Having navigated its way through the turmoil of the Arab Spring with less difficulty than perhaps any / other Arab government, the

Saudi Arabia’s positive growth outlook and its favourable demographics support our outlook for a strong / consumer sector. Through

Spain looks set to sink into economic depression as the government pushes ahead with increasingly / aggressive fiscal austerity am

In January 2012, Tesco issued a profit warning after posting lacklustre UK results for the Christmas / period. Tesco has attribute

BMI View: Our positive outlook on the Zambian food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors is / predicated on our favourable outloo

Market Overview / BMI View: The Sri Lankan IT market growth is expected to moderate in 2012, after benefiting from a / local and r

BMI View: Colombia's IT market is forecast to increase to US$3.0bn in 2012, up by around 11%, with / our projection unchanged from

BMI View: BMI has made a modest upwards adjustment to its 2012 IT spending forecast due to / macroeconomic factors. Venezuela is o

BMI View: We continue to expect anaemic growth for the construction sector in 2012, with real growth / forecast to reach 1.5%. Thi

BMI View: As the Eurozone crisis grinds on, the uncertainty spreading to the German infrastructure / sector grows. An underlying t

BMI View: We are penciling in a return to positive growth in Hungary's construction industry value in / 2013, following a gradual

BMI View: Investment continues to flow into the Nigerian construction sector as low inflation bolsters / growth levels. Revised fi

BMI View: Despite continuing political turmoil, Oman’s construction sector shows positive trends for / the rest of 2012. Construct

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)'s vast mineral resources will continue to attract greater / international interest, giv

BMI View: Infighting between local authorities and key refinery operator Lukoil hardly bodes well for the / downstream oil segment

BMI Industry View: While China is increasingly dependent on imported oil and gas due to rapid growth / in energy demand, there is

BMI View: With no domestic energy resources, Hong Kong has the straightforward, if demanding, / challenge of meeting growing oil a

BMI View: While India’s upstream oil prospects appear to be limited, the discovery and ongoing development / of significant gas re

BMI View: Gas exports have formed the backbone of the Indonesian economy for many years, but the / outlook for the sector is incre

BMI View: Over the near term, Japan’s consumption of imported oil and natural gas will remain at / heightened levels as a result o

BMI View: Recovery in oil and liquids production is on the agenda for Malaysia, but the country is / unlikely to avoid becoming a

BMI View: It will not be possible for Pakistan to maintain gas self-sufficiency much longer – primarily / due to rising domestic c

BMI View: The future is bright for Papua New Guinea (PNG), as long as it can successfully transform its / unused gas reserves into

BMI View: The Philippine energy sector faces an uncertain outlook thanks to challenges in the oil, gas / and power segments. Repor

BMI View: Like so many European countries, Poland is hoping that a shale gas revolution will trigger longterm / volume growth that

BMI View: A high level of investment will be required to maintain Russian oil output at close to recent record / levels, putting p

BMI View: Petrochemicals and refining remain the lifeblood of Singapore, with strong regional / demand / growth meaning there is

BMI View: Woodside Petroleum and state-run KNOC are set to go wildcatting off South Korea’s coast in / a long-shot bid to turn aro

BMI View: Refinery expansion plans have been thrown into turmoil due to political intervention, and / Taiwan may not see a new pla

BMI View: Despite relatively strong domestic oil and gas position, Thailand is increasingly exposed by / its reliance on growing c

BMI View: Unexpected North Sea tax changes don’t appear to have killed off North Sea investment activity, / but assets continue to

Output in 2011 was supported by household spending and export growth, although these diminished as / the year progressed. French c

The German petrochemicals industry is set for a sharp slowdown in 2012, but is unlikely to contract / unless the eurozone debt cri

A slowdown in Russian economic activity will soften demand in the petrochemicals market, but BMI’s / latest Russia Petrochemicals

Saudi Arabia is set to overcome its dependence on commodity petrochemicals by developing high / performance and speciality-grade p

Ukrainian petrochemicals output performed consistently well throughout much of 2011 with primary / plastic output up 25% y-o-y to

The British chemicals industry will be unable to escape the uncertainties relating to the eurozone debt / crisis, with any drop in

BMI View: Although the growth of Bangladesh’s pharmaceutical market is expected to remain in double / digits over the forecast per

BMI View: With Canada’s economy set to weather the external storm, the outlook for the country’s / pharmaceutical market looks rel

Sudan / BMI View: We maintain our view that the outlook for Sudan and South Sudan's pharmaceutical markets / will be more dependen

BMI View: Following widespread protests in mid-2011, the Israeli government has been under / significant pressure to spend more on

BMI View: While Kuwait will continue to be of interest to multinational drugmakers – on account of / traditional preference for br

BMI View: Continued improvement in Lebanon's intellectual property (IP) and pharmaceutical / regulatory environment reinforces BMI

BMI View: Malaysia’s longer term potential as an attractive pharmaceutical market will remain shaped by the / prevailing economic

BMI View: Moldova’s pharmaceutical market recorded stronger growth in 2011, but its small market / size and its status as the poor

BMI View: Puerto Rico is struggling to retain its reputation as a pharmaceutical manufacturing hub, / with a number of plants foun

BMI View: Since the approval of an EU/ECB/IMF economic rescue package in May 2011, cost cutting measures / have taken their toll o

BMI View: Following the resignation of Emil Boc and his government in February 2012, there is now / considerable uncertainty with

BMI View: Singapore is a well-developed pharmaceutical market, although overall sales only reached a / modest SGD901mn (US$716mn)

Angola / BMI View: Angola’s pharmaceutical and healthcare market is characterised by a weak regulatory / framework, a lack of inte

BMI View: Companies with significant exposure to debt-ridden European markets will be hard hit by / government austerity measures

BMI View: The expected growth of the Switzerland’s ageing population over the next 50 years will have / an unprecedented impact on

BMI View: While we continue to see huge potential in the Ukrainian pharmaceutical market, we are / pessimistic with regard to shor

BMI View: Economics and politics are increasingly exerting an influence on the US pharmaceutical / market. This is in stark contra

BMI View: The better regulated markets of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), South Africa and Israel / will remain the most rewar

BMI View: With plenty of monetary and fiscal ammunition to weather a global growth slowdown and / continually strong demand for Br

BMI View : New data released by the China Electricity Council (CEC) corroborate BMI 's view that / China's electricity consumption

Kenya / BMI View: Kenya's power sector continues to introduce a more diversified energy-generation capability. / Although hydropow

Angola / BMI View: Angola depends upon hydroelectricity for the majority of its requirements, which means the / country is over-de

The commercial real estate market in Bahrain continues to suffer the fallout from the global financial / crisis and unrest that sw

Real GDP flash estimates released by statistics agencies across Central and South Eastern European / countries largely confirm our

The centre-left coalition government formed on December 4 is faced with a rough year and tough / decisions. Exposure to the eurozo

According to our most recent round of in-country interviews, which were conducted in December 2011, / rents in Hong Kong could see

Indonesia has a surging economy, growing urbanisation, relative political stability and strong savings and / income growth. Consum

Poland is one of few major economies in Europe to have escaped recession, although it is vulnerable to / any downturn in the neigh

Turkey’s real estate market is in a highly advantageous position. While the long-term domestic demand / credentials of the BRIC (B

Increasing affluence, a growing population – including a larger number of young people – and the / continuing development of organ

The Q212 BMI Venezuela Retail Report forecasts that the country’s retail sales will grow by an average / 18.1% per annum in local

In this quarter's BMI Asia Pacific Telecoms Risk/Reward Ratings update, countries / largely remained in their respective positions

BMI's Norway Telecommunications Report for Q212 contains the latest forecasts covering the country's / mobile subscriber market an

During this quarter’s update to BMI’s Oman Telecommunications report we have updated our five year / growth forecast for the mobil

At the time of writing, Pakistan’s telecoms market is poised to undergo a significant change in the form of / an auction for spect

The launch of 3G services by Thailand's three largest mobile network operators continues to dominate the / headlines. Despite a ch

BMI’s Q2 2012 report on the telecommunications markets of West and Central Africa contains the latest five-year / forecasts for th

Costa Rica receives the majority of its tourist arrivals from the Americas, with the top three source / markets for visitors to th

Tourism Overview / Complete provisional customs data for 2011, which include figures for same-day visitors, show a 1.5% / year-on-

Strong Growth Continues In 2012 / Figures released by the Vietnam National Administration of Tourism (VNAT) in January 2012 show t

BMI View: Colombia’s pharmaceutical and healthcare markets will perform better than the regional / average over the medium term du

The influence of the Arab Spring spread to Kuwait in late 2011, as protests that began in September / culminated in the storming o

Romania is continuing its process of defence modernisation despite the financial challenges that the / country is currently facing

Russia has embarked on a long-term modernisation programme for its armed forces which is due to / conclude by 2020. Apart from per

The legacy of the Arab Spring continued to weigh heavily on the Saudi Arabian government in early / 2012, as tensions remained hig

Given the high savings rate of the Chinese consumer, private consumption will be an outperformer to the / manufacturing, investmen

We have revised up our 2012 forecast for real GDP growth in Colombia, from 4.5% to 4.7%, as we / believe economic growth will rema

BMI View: With high single digit food consumption growth forecasts and double digit mass grocery / retail forecasts in place, the

Despite the fact that its population does not exceed 18mn, we continue to view Chile as the second most / attractive market in Lat

The ever-deepening eurozone debt crisis is proving a major challenge to Germany’s economic growth / model. Further escalation of t

We continue to like Indonesia as a regional outperformer, with countries more dependent on external / trade, such as Singapore, fe

The headwinds of slowing remittance growth and prolonged weakness of Pakistani financial assets / will continue to weigh on domest

Poland's strong domestic demand story continues to look solid and we expect Poland's status as regional / outperformer will contin

Due to IMF-supervised macroeconomic stability, strong foreign direct investment inflows and export / competitiveness the fundament

BMI View: Peru's IT market is forecast to increase to US$1.6bn in 2012, up by around 14%, with a / robust economy and government s

Market Overview / The size of the strategically located Turkish IT market is forecast to increase from US$7.9bn in 2012 to / US$14

Market Overview / BMI View: South African IT spending to increase at to about US$20bn in 2016, at a US dollar 2012- / 2016 CAGR of

Market Overview / BMI View: The Sri Lankan IT market growth is expected to moderate in 2012, after benefiting from a / local and r

BMI View: Argentina’s infrastructure sector remains dependent to some extent on a US$10bn credit / agreement from China. In additi

BMI View: Statistical data shows that construction and infrastructure activity in India remained weak / through the first nine mon

BMI View: Due to rising inflation, estimated above 20%, we have adjusted Iran’s construction industry / forecast down to -3% for 2

BMI View: The artificial demand created in the Polish construction industry is beginning to subside as / projects near completion

BMI View: Positive signs of growth are returning for the construction sector in 2012; however, the path / is still fragile. Real g

BMI View: The latest data from the Thailand National Economic and Social Development Board shows / that, in real terms, Thailand's

BMI View: The Central America region is a mixed bag; whilst opportunities are on offer across / the / region, the risks in some c

BMI View: Our view that Japan's post-Tohoku reconstruction efforts would have to wait until / 2012 / continues to play out. Robus

BMI View: Investment in preparations for the UEFA 2012 Football tournament enabled Ukraine's / construction industry to emerge fro

Diamonds To Remain Mainstay Of Mining Sector For Now / In line with the Botswanan government's plans to diversify away from diamon

The revision to our Ghana mining growth forecasts in Q212 reflects the release of new data from the / World Bureau of Metal Statis

India hosts a wide range of globally significant mineral resources, including: four fuel minerals (such as / coal and uranium); 11

The past decade of stagnation and decline in South Africa's mining sector is set to end as several projects / across South Africa'

The Czech chemicals and petrochemicals industry has come under increasing pressure as a result of a / downturn in the eurozone exp

The export-led growth the Hungarian petrochemicals industry enjoyed in H111 dissipated in H2 as / markets came under pressure from

The Iranian government’s ambitious plans for a 37mn tpa increase in petrochemicals capacity in 2010- / 2015 look set to be dashed

Israel’s domestic chemicals and plastics market will not be immune to the slowdown in the global / economy in 2012, according to B

The Polish petrochemicals industry enjoyed a positive performance in 2011, but will come under pressure / due to the worsening sit

The breaks are likely to be put on Turkish petrochemicals consumption growth in 2012, as the country’s / industrial sector faces a

BMI View: Bulgaria’s pharmaceutical market will be under some pressure in 2012 due to a weakening / economic outlook and the tight

BMI View: Despite concerted progress made on the fiscal consolidation front in the first half of 2011, the / French government’s m

BMI View: Despite an increasingly ageing population (consequently increasing burden of noncommunicable / diseases) Hong Kong will

BMI View: Kazakhstan remains the most accessible and competitive pharmaceutical market in Central / Asia and the growing expectati

BMI View: Oman’s 2012 budget allocated a greater sum of money to the healthcare sector, in line / with BMI’s view that the Arab sp

BMI View: Much of the population in the Philippines still struggles to afford medicines, despite the / enforcement of the Universa

BMI View: It is worth reiterating our view that while 2012 is set to be a challenging year for drugmakers / operating in Poland, w

BMI View: Following Qatar’s decision to reintroduce controls on medicine prices in late 2011, we / expect pharmaceutical price inf

BMI View: On account of its unpredictable and unfavourable operating environment and limited funding / for and investment in healt

Continued efforts to cool the residential sector will affect all real estate activity in coming months, with / stalled prices now

Despite having a vast and rapidly expanding population, as well as noticeably improving infrastructure, / demand for commercial re

As anticipated, South Africa's construction industry is experiencing a protracted lull, following years of / double-digit growth.

BMI is optimistic about the prospects for Israel's commercial real estate sector over the next five years: / / • In general, dema

Although Japan’s commercial real estate market was surprisingly resilient in the wake of the earthquake / and tsunami in March, ou

Taiwan is particularly susceptible to a global economic slowdown through external demand dynamics. / Our outlook on Taiwan’s main

Beset by high interest rates, rising inflation, oversupply and government efforts to curb lending, / Vietnam’s property market is

The Q212 BMI Brazil retail report forecasts that the country’s retail sales will grow by nearly 43% / between 2012 and 2016, from

The Q212 BMI Chile retail report forecasts that the country’s retail sales will grow from US$55.76bn in / 2012 to US$62.72bn in 20

The Q212 BMI Colombia retail report forecasts that the country’s retail sales will grow from an / estimated COP257.80trn (US$131.0

Generally positive trends in underlying economic growth, an expanding population and a steady increase / in real wages are key fac

BMI’s Q212 update to the Bahraini Telecommunications report contains analysis and five-year forecasts / for the country’s mobile,

In Q311, the Mexican market reached mobile penetration of 87.5%, up from 86.5% penetration in Q211. / This was due to 1.172mn net

BMI’s latest quarterly report on Chile’s telecoms market includes data published by major operators and / the national regulator,

Latest subscriber data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and Chinese operators – / China Mobile, China Unic

Iran’s mobile market, by far the largest segment of the country’s telecoms industry, exhibited / considerably slower growth in 201

BMI's Q212 update to the Kenya Telecommunications market report incorporates market data from the / Communications Commission of K

According to the latest data available from operators and MinTIC, Colombia’s mobile market reported an / exceptional performance i

The Irish telecommunications market continues to grow within expectations and we have needed to make / only minor downward revisio

BMI’s Q212 Tanzania telecoms market report contains analysis and forecasts for the mobile, fixed and / internet sectors, using mar

The Venezuelan mobile sector reported positive net additions in Q311 (latest data available) following / two quarters of declines,

BMI's Q212 update to the Hungary Telecommunications report analyses the latest trends and developments, / including the licensing

BMI remains highly positive about the outlook for Brazil’s tourism industry in 2012. / / International / disembarkations, which

BMI remains positive on the outlook for Chilean tourism in 2012. For the first 11 months of 2011, / arrivals data show there was a

Tourist Arrivals Grow Strongly In 2011 / / Data released by the Indian Ministry of Tourism in January 2012 showed the country mai

Tourist Arrivals Grow Strongly In 2011 / The swift action by Kenyan military forces in cracking down on al-Shabaab terrorist activ

BMI is generally positive on the outlook for Oman’s tourism sector as we enter 2012. Over recent years, / the number of inbound tr

Official Forecasts Point To Gloomy 2012 / Although full-year tourist arrival data has not been released, urban data reporting sugg

Tourism Overview / Growth in foreign tourist arrivals (non-residents staying at least one night) was surprisingly strong yearon- /

Thailand Experiences Record Arrivals In 2011 / Thailand’s strong recovery in the first half of 2011 was not derailed by the major

BMI estimates the number of arrivals to the US reached nearly 58.1mn in 2011 and this will increase to / 60.4mn in 2012 and 70.8mn

Israel faces a security crisis in 2012 over Iran’s nuclear programme, and more specifically in deciding whether to attack Iran in

BMI View: With double-digit or high single-digit average annual growth forecast for food, beverage and mass grocery retail sales t

Although Turkey’s medium-term macroeconomic outlook has deteriorated significantly in recent months owing to a confluence of domes

BMI View: The oil market will once again be operating with a supply deficit in 2012, though the pressure should ease towards the l

BMI View: Uganda continues to attract high levels of foreign investment despite unrest, endemic corruption and wildly fluctuating

This Special Report from Business Monitor International (BMI) examines the African healthcare and pharmaceutical markets, looking

BMI View: In line with BMI’s expectation that free healthcare provision for all would be too expensive for Côte d’Ivoire, the gove

BMI View: Estonia’s pharmaceutical market will remain of marginal interest to multinationals given its small population and a mode

BMI View: Japan’s pharmaceutical market is highly attractive to both foreign and local drugmakers. All three sub-sectors – patente

The eurozone is currently staring into the abyss. The early December EU summit did little to tackle the long term problems of the

Our Themes For 2012 In many ways, our 2012 preview is a continuation of our 2011 outlook. At the end of 2010 we believed the upcom

Australia will remain a leading player in many segments of the global mining industry. Owing to its substantial deposits, the coun

BMI View: Rising political tensions represents a key risk to the economies and infrastructure sector of Sudan and South Sudan. The

Most of the main risks to global economic and geopolitical stability are well known. These are typically a double-dip recession in

Kuwait could become the most dynamic driver of basic chemicals growth in the Arabian Gulf region, with the confirmation of new ref

BMI View: Both the Turkish economy and the country's power sector face sizeable headwinds over the coming months, as the country a

The Australian commercial real estate market continues to be fairly balanced because, structurally, the industry functions in a wa

BMI View: We believe Zambia is rapidly becoming one of the most promising markets in Sub-Saharan Africa. An increased focus on hea

Over the coming 10 years we expect there to be a major shift in global economic power and private consumption. By 2017 emerging ma

BMI View: BMI expects the Philippines IT market will grow by around 10% in 2012, slightly slower than in 2011. Over our five-year

BMI View: While we anticipated lacklustre growth in Côte d’Ivoire’s infrastructure market in 2011, we see an increasing likelihood

BMI View: Zimbabwe has the potential to become a very attractive frontier market. Since reforms were implemented in 2009, the coun

BMI has revised its forecasts for Indonesia's mobile communications market in light of new Q311 data from Indosat, XL Axiata and A

The Q212 BMI Argentina retail report forecasts that the country’s retail sales will grow from ARS71.90bn (US$22.74bn) in 2012 to A

The Philippines real estate sector is generally considered to have outperformed in 2011. Almost 300,000 square metres (m2) of Grad

New Zealand, which consists of two main islands – the North and the South – and a number of smaller islands, is known for its natu

The latest operator data available for our Peru Telecommunications Q212 report are from Q311 and shows an increase in the pace of

The effect of the floods that wracked Thailand at the end of 2012 will be long-lasting and are likely to continue to have an effec

Although the Telecommunications Regulatory Commission of Sri Lanka (TRCSL) has yet to publish data about the country’s telecoms in

BMI View: Mozambique’s pharmaceutical market is typical of developing markets, with a poor regulatory framework, dependence upon d

BMI View: Our view expressed in previous quarters that ‘political risk is the main element that can ultimately curtail growth as p

BMI View: Kenya's booming construction industry has faced significant headwinds, as rampant inflation - due to a weak shilling, am

BMI View: The pledge by the Philippine government to boost infrastructure spending in 2012 and improve monetary conditions suggest

The Romanian petrochemicals industry has been held back by the inability of Oltchim, in which the government has a majority stake,

BMI View: Despite macro concerns and waning confidence in the Turkish construction sector, especially following the cancelled Marm

BMI View: We see the government's major infrastructure expansion programme - which will involve the construction of new ports, rai

BMI View: We believe that a mild recovery in Singapore’s construction industry is on the cards for 2012, with our forecasts showin

BMI View: It is our view that the Swiss economy will record slower growth in 2012. This may lead to the implementation of more aus

BMI’s Q212 Turkey Retail Report predicts that the country’s retail sales will grow by more than 12% by 2016, from TRY315.99bn (US

The Q212 BMI Slovenia Retail report forecasts that the country’s retail sales will grow from a projected EUR17.33bn (US$25.48bn)

Thanks to the robust retail sales outlook, increasing tourism arrivals and a strengthening Singaporean dollar, the domestic consu

The Q212 BMI Serbia Retail report forecasts that the country’s retail sales will grow by 53% between 2012 and 2016, from a predic

The Q212 BMI Russia Retail report forecasts that the country’s total retail sales will increase by nearly 21% in local currency t

The Q212 BMI Romania Retail report forecasts that the country’s total retail sales will rise by 10% between 2012 and 2016, growin

The Q212 BMI Poland Retail Report forecasts that the country’s total retail sales will increase by more than 25% in local currenc

An expanding population (especially in urban areas), rising consumer spending and the continued development of organised retail i

A low unemployment rate, rising disposable incomes and a strong tourism industry are helping to drive growth in Malaysia’s retail

The Q212 BMI India Retail Report forecasts that total retail sales will grow from INR22.53trn (US$489.80bn) in 2012 to INR27.73tr

The Q212 BMI Bulgaria Retail Report forecasts that the country’s total retail sales will grow from an estimated BGN14.89bn (US$11.

BMI View: Zimbabwe currently replies upon hydropower and coal for its energy provision, with its power deficit covered by energy

BMI View: Zambia’s power industry continues to depend heavily upon electricity generated in hydroelectric plants, although the qu

BMI View: Tanzania's power sector is suffering from chronic energy shortages, partly due to the impact of recurring drought on th

BMI View: Namibia faces a potential energy deficit of 80MW in 2012, and as this deficit is set to climb in the short-term, the go

BMI View: With a growing economy, there is considerable pressure on Mozambique to meet increasing energy demands. As such, a numbe

BMI View: Kenya's power sector continues to introduce a more diversified energy-generation capability. Although hydropower generat

BMI View: Uzbekistan’s pharmaceutical market remains one of the fastest growing in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region an

BMI View: Angola depends upon hydroelectricity for the majority of its requirements, which means the country is over-dependent up

BMI View: Botswana has experienced outages that have outraged businesses and reduced productivity, thereby illustrating that the

BMI View: Uganda's pharmaceutical market is typical of developing markets: defined by an absence of a clear regulatory framework,

BMI View: Thailand is a moderately attractive pharmaceutical market for multinationals. On the positive side, rewards are potentia

BMI View: We continue viewing Iran as one of the less attractive regional markets. Imposition of more stringent international san

BMI View: The pharmaceuticals and healthcare sector will be a target of further cost containment, particularly as National Health

BMI View: The attractiveness of Jordan’s pharmaceutical and healthcare markets in the short term will be shaped by the prevailing

BMI View: Gabon’s pharmaceutical and healthcare market represents a small but growing opportunity to drugmakers and producers of

BMI View: Despite the threat of austerity measures and the government's focus on cost-containment within the pharmaceuticals and

BMI View: We maintain our view that the outlook for Sudan and South Sudan's pharmaceutical markets will be more dependent on the

BMI View: While South Korea's research and development (R&D) environment may be attractive to investors, its pharmaceutical marke

BMI View: Despite the fact a significant number of multinationals are present in Pakistan, and the country's significant market p

BMI View: New Zealand has slipped ranks in our latest Risk/Reward Ratings – falling behind India due to the fact its small pharma

BMI View: Some changes have been made to the original March 2011 proposal to reduce costs in the pharmaceutical market, represent

BMI View: Given the precedent for political gridlock and the resulting project delays, foreign investor and private sector player

BMI View: While Egypt’s healthcare and pharmaceuticals industry outlook continues to be dominated by macroeconomic themes, such a

BMI View: Based on Croatia’s deteriorating macroeconomic outlook, combined with our expectations that the new Kukuriku coalition

BMI View: Botswana has a relatively well-developed healthcare market. Despite its small population, the country has one of the hi

The country’s turbulent environment is having a direct impact on the Egyptian petrochemicals industry. Civil unrest temporarily fo

We maintain our view that the Algerian economy will experience moderate rates of real GDP expansion with growth rates of 4.7% and

BMI View: Gas, in particular coal bed methane (CBM), may be the future for Australia’s energy export industry. Conventional gas a

Despite having large natural resources for key mineral commodities such as coal, copper, gold, zinc and lead, we expect modest gro

We expect Kazakhstan's mining industry value to reach US$41.3bn by 2016, down from our previous forecast in light of our view of a

As 2012 ushers in the second year of China's 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015), we expect the changes and reforms enacted in 2011 t

BMI View: Zambia’s construction industry is anticipated to experience strong growth over the next five years – driven by investmen

BMI View: The adverse monetary conditions in Vietnam are set to see a reversal, with the constant decline in inflation providing

BMI View: We noticed an easing in the pace of contraction in South Korea's construction activity towards the end of 2011 - an ind

BMI View: Namibia’s construction industry value real growth is expected to accelerate to 9.1% y-o-y in 2012 and average 8.6% y-o-

BMI View: Mozambique’s construction sector is the most dynamic in the southern African region and the country’s huge mining and e

BMI View: Ghana has a nascent oil and gas sector which, as it grows, will drive demand for auxiliary infrastructure. This is full

BMI View: Despite the fact Gabon is one of West Africa's oil producing countries, with respectable output of 250,000b/d in 2011,

BMI View: Our view on the unwinding of spending on railways is playing out, with the latest figures emerging from China suggesting

BMI View: The broader economic situation in Cameroon is stable and generally positive. Growth was forecast to accelerate slightly

BMI View: Botswana's construction industry is in line for robust average annual growth of 5% between 2012 and 2016, as economic d

BMI View: A severe infrastructure deficit and the number of projects currently underway in Angola – particularly in the transport

Although the UAE’s economy is set to slow in 2012, the outlook for the food industry remains strong. The UAE is set for another y

BMI View: We believe the Greek economy will remain mired in depression through 2012 as deep fiscal retrenchment and internal deva

With dynamic consumer growth, a population of nearly 200mn and a relatively favourable business environment, it is clear to see w

We continue to remain cautious regarding Bahrain’s consumer sector in particular as the country continues to suffer from sluggish

The Queensland floods, a strong Australian dollar and declining consumer spending have darkened our Australian retail picture in

The Islamic Republic of Iran was at the centre of the world’s most pressing security crisis in early 2012, as Tehran refused to b

BMI View: Slovenia's pharmaceutical market outlook remains broadly unchanged in our Q212 assessment. While weak economic data and

In the period to September 2011, Belgium's mobile and broadband internet markets recovered some of the momentum lost in the first

BMI's Q2 2012 report on the telecoms market of Bosnia & Herzegovina includes analyses of the country's mobile, fixed-line and bro

The Q212 update to the Bulgaria telecommunications report contains BMI’s revised forecasts for the mobile market based on latest

The Q212 update to BMI’s Swiss telecoms market report contains analyses of major developments in the telecoms market, including t

Tourism Overview Last year will go down as a success story for Croatia in terms of foreign tourism. Preliminary data for January-

BMI View: Indonesia will continue to represent a high-risk but high-reward pharmaceutical market for multinationals, on account o

The Indonesian IT market should grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18% over 2012- 2016, with Indonesia forecast to b

Market Overview / Chilean IT spending is expected to reach US$3.5bn in 2012, with robust but slower growth compared with a stron

BMI expects the Philippine IT market will grow by around 10% in 2012, slightly slower than in 2011. Over our five-year forecast pe

BMI View: The government must make a serious effort in 2012 to inject renewed momentum into its water sector, focusing on critical

Uganda’s defence expenditure is estimated to have risen 37.21% y-o-y in 2010, accounting for 12.9% of government spending. BMI exp

Japan’s arrival numbers have grown steadily since 2001. Although they took a hit in 2009, falling to less than 6.66mn after reachi

The Q112 update to the UK Telecommunications Report contains an analysis of market trends and data using the latest data released

This quarter, BMI has extended through to 2016 its forecasts for the fixed-line, mobile and broadband sectors in all four North Af

BMI’s Q112 report on Denmark’s telecommunications market provides a comprehensive overview of the latest developments to occur wit

BMI’s Q112 report on the telecommunications market of Cambodia and Laos provides a comprehensive overview of the latest developmen

Strong underlying economic growth, the world’s fourth-largest population (which is growing), rising per capita incomes and the con

The Q212 BMI Hungary Retail Report forecasts that the country’s total retail sales will increase by 15% between 2012 and 2016, gro

The Q212 BMI Hong Kong Retail report forecasts that total retail sales in the special administrative region will grow from HKD329.

The Q212 BMI Czech Republic Retail Report forecasts that the country’s retail sales will grow by 10% between 2012 and 2016, from a

BMI is below consensus in its forecast that sees the UAE’s real GDP expanding 3.3% in 2011 and averaging 4.1% through to 2016. Nev

In late 2011, BMI conducted its latest round of interviews with in-country sources on India’s commercial real estate sector. The o

BMI View: While the Turkish pharmaceutical industry has achieved some concessions following additional price cuts and public disco

BMI View: Sweden’s high public expenditure on health (SEK252bn, or US$39bn, in 2011), accounting for 79% of total healthcare expen

BMI View: As the most populous country on the African continent, Nigeria should be of interest to multinational drugmakers. Howeve

BMI View: Theoretically, Mexico offers one of the most favourable intellectual property (IP) environments in Latin America, which

BMI View: The Kenyan pharmaceuticals and healthcare market presents significant revenue-earning opportunities for drug companies.

BMI View: Australia’s pharmaceutical sector will get increasingly more regulated as the government seeks to make improvements for

BMI View: Measured in local currency and in US dollars, the value of Argentina’s pharmaceutical market is expected to grow at doub

BMI View: Algeria is a high-risk market for multinational drugmakers because of the combination of regional uncertainty and state

In 2011, petrochemicals and downstream industries reported stellar growth as the industry enjoyed an influx of fresh investment an

BMI View: Crude output will struggle to grow over the short term as disruption to oil production is likely to continue in the wake

The BMI global oil supply and demand assumptions for 2011 and beyond have again been revisited, reflecting changes in the oil mark

BMI View: With production in terminal decline and few new projects expected to come onstream over the next decade, the Republic of

BMI View: Oil and gas output will bounce back strongly in 2012 with production set to reach pre-war levels by year-end. Over the l

BMI View: Ghana’s nascent oil and gas industry is set to undergo a transformation over the next five years as the Jubilee and Grea

BMI View: Gabon must tempt new investment in exploration and production or face a rapid decline in output as fields mature. We exp

BMI View: On the one hand, Egypt is a significant LNG exporter and its Nile Delta and Western Desert prospects have attracted inde

BMI View: With declining production output and few new projects expected to come onstream over the next decade, the outlook for Ca

BMI View: Crude and gas output is expected to rise over the course of our forecast period, although oil production is likely to be

Global demand for metals and minerals will drive growth in Canada's mining sector as historical production has focused primarily o

Demand for Russian mining output will remain sensitive to the potential for renewed economic recession in Europe and possibly the

With US growth construction activity still faltering and the automotive market under pressure, US metals production is set for a s

In line with our positive outlook for the Mexican steel industry, the sector has performed well in 2011, with output reaching leve

Pakistan’s construction and infrastructure forecast is negative for 2012, based on declining investor confidence. The energy and u

BMI View: We believe that the adverse global investor sentiment in 2012 will keep near-term construction growth muted in Indonesia

BMI View: The Czech Republic’s construction and infrastructure industry value has become a victim of limited cash flow, restraint

Market Overview / The Hong Kong IT market is forecast by BMI to grow from around US$5.5bn in 2012 to US$6.8bn in 2016. Economic e

Thailand was thrown into disarray in late 2011 not, as many had predicted, by its dysfunctional politics but by the forces of natu

BMI estimates that Canada’s defence spending totalled US$20.89bn in 2010, or US$614 per capita. Overall, this was an 8.6% increase

BMI View: We are confident that 2011 was another weak year for the construction industry and are therefore maintaining our 1.7% es

Market Overview / The Vietnamese IT market is estimated to report 17% growth in 2012. In January – August 2011, PC imports grew b

Market Overview The addressable IT market in Sri Lanka is forecast at US$444mn in 2012, just 2% of the size of India's market. It

Market Overview / South Korea's IT market has a forecast value of US$18.7bn in 2012, with slower growth compared to 2011. BMI exp

BMI continues to estimate double digit growth in IT spending for Brazil. Brazil stands out as the largest IT market in the region,

BMI View: Crude output will remain fairly steady as Noble Energy’s new Aseng and Alen projects come onstream, offsetting declines

The Czech consumer outlook remains very challenging. As austerity measures continue, both household and government spending are ex

BMI View: South Korea’s consumption spending in 2012 will remain constrained by high household debt burden and a deteriorating mac

The Government of Bulgaria remains focused on an armed forces modernisation initiative, which was launched to enhance compatibilit

As 2011 unfolded, the US defence industry became increasingly disturbed at the scope of spending cuts that could have a significan

BMI’s Q112 update on the telecoms markets of Kazakhstan and its four Central Asian neighbours incorporates new mobile subscriber d

Market Overview The Canadian addressable domestic market for IT products and services is forecast by BMI to reach US$52.4bn by 201

Peru has one of the smaller IT markets in the Latin American region, but spending is projected to grow at a CAGR of 11% over the 2

Market Overview / Singapore's IT market is projected to record 6% growth in 2012, with slower growth compared with 2011. BMI expe

Market Overview The Thai IT market is the largest in the South East Asia region and despite a serious impact from the recent flood

Market Overview / .. US spending on IT products and services is forecast to reach US$669bn by 2016. US spending on IT products an

BMI View: BMI has made a modest upwards adjustment to its 2012 IT spending forecast due to macroeconomic factors. Venezuela is one

The UAE's reputation as a 'safe haven' in a volatile region will continue to serve the economy well, although growth will begin to

Economic activity for both Sudan and South Sudan will be subdued in 2012 owing to ongoing challenges regarding the oil sector, hig

BMI sees the South African economy continuing its uneven recovery over the medium term, with real GDP growth forecast expected to

Our forecasts for Nigerian growth remain unchanged at 7.6% for both 2012 and 2013, buoyed by an anticipated surge in investment as

We remain broadly sanguine about Kuwait’s growth prospects in 2012. Heavy government spending is likely to boost the prospects for

Although the Kenyan economy faces a great deal of uncertainty in 2012, we forecast real GDP growth will register 5.0%, up from an

Despite heightened rhetoric, we do not believe Iran’s threats to close the Strait of Hormuz are credible. Any cut-off in oil expor

Not only should real GDP growth surge in 2012 as the economy recovers from the 2011 crisis, but long-term growth should benefit fr

We are forecasting real GDP growth in Botswana of 5.4% in 2012 and 5.5% in 2013. The solid outlook is driven by growing interest i

Petroleum-related economic activity will drive the majority of growth, but increased government consumption in the run-up to the 2

Despite fairly strong economic activity at the tail end of 2011 and in the early part of 2012, the US economic recovery will remai

Mexico will remain an emerging market under-performer for the duration of our 10-year forecast period, with our growth projections

Robust economic growth will continue to be driven primarily by strong private consumption levels, with consumer-focused industries

Blessed with favourable demographics, a large consumer base and a wealth of natural resources, Brazil offers some of the most exci

The economy is recovering, but with fiscal cuts looming and unemployment stubbornly high, the rate of growth will be fairly tepid.

We have revised our 2012 forecasts for Swiss real GDP growth. Following estimated 2011 growth of 1.9%, our significantly bleaker o

The deferral of the decision regarding Serbia’s EU candidate status on December 9 2011 will have significant domestic political co

Ireland’s economy will post negative growth in 2012 as fiscal austerity, household deleveraging and a recession in Europe weigh on

Hungary’s economy is set to re-enter recessionary territory in 2012 as a combination of slowing economic activity across Western E

Although Germany's export sector has only limited exposure to the eurozone periphery, we caution that a recession in the single cu

France’s economy is showing signs of a sharp economic slowdown in light of the deteriorating global macroeconomic backdrop, and wh

Ethnic relations in Estonia are set to remain tense over the course of our forecast period. We expect that the Estonian government

We expect economic growth in Croatia to weaken in 2012 owing to the country's high degree of exposure to the ongoing eurozone sove

Georgia's economy is vulnerable to a deteriorating global economic climate and remains at a disadvantage to its regional peers owi

We expect Bulgaria’s economic growth to be weighed down by significantly weaker aggregate demand in the eurozone and persistent co

After a difficult year in 2011, the Pakistan People’s Party-led government will find no respite in 2012. Fragile US-Pakistani rela

Despite recent encouraging Purchasing Managers' Index data, we continue to believe that real GDP growth will come in at a three-ye

Malaysia's real GDP growth is set to slow over the coming quarters as global economic headwinds continue to drag on exports. We be

Core Views / With China’s economy heading towards a hard landing, we believe it will become increasingly difficult for Beijing to

Core Views / We estimate that economic growth in 2011 came to 3.7% as reduced government spending and collapsing exports dragged

Our projection for Hong Kong’s 2011 real GDP growth is 5.0%, which falls at the lower end of the government’s expectation of 5.0-6

While Japanese real GDP growth is projected to rebound in 2012, we doubt that it will feel like an economic recovery on the ground

2011 was a momentous year for Libya. A 10-month civil war sparked by the Arab Spring in February saw Libyan dictator Muammar Qadha

The Moroccan construction industry is estimated to have experienced real growth of around 7.4% in 2011, with the sector recovering

The recent depreciation of the real should assist growth in Brazilian metals production which struggled to compete with a flood of

The scenario going into 2012 is mixed for Canada’s metals industry. While y-o-y growth was consistent throughout H111, sales began

Although the vehicle ownership rate in Angola is significantly lower than that in other southern African counterparts such as Bots

BMI View: One of the world’s largest holders of oil and natural gas resources, Iran is a significant producer of both. However, in

BMI View: Iraq has the greatest potential for oil production growth in the Middle East region. We forecast over 8mn b/d of crude o

BMI View: Kuwait - one of OPEC’s key oil producers – will experience a relatively slow and steady rise in output. We see Kuwait pr

The Q212 BMI China Retail Report forecasts that the country’s total retail sales will increase by 29% in local currency terms by t

The Q212 BMI Croatia Retail Report forecasts that the country’s total retail sales will rise by 13% between 2012 and 2016, growing

BMI’s Q112 update on Kuwait’s telecommunications market contains the latest operational data from mobile market leader Zain and se

The mobile market continued to grow in Q311, recording 5,433 net additions, including those of MVNO Tracfone. While up on Q211, it

BMI’s Q212 report on the Philippines telecommunications market provides a comprehensive overview of the latest developments n the

Iraq’s reconstruction has resulted in significant contract awards, with US$124bn of projects currently underway or in the pipeline

Saudi Arabia’s tourism industry is unique in that despite the limitations of strict entrance visa regulations, the industry has st

If security fears dominated Vietnam’s strategic attention in the middle of 2011, economic fears had supplanted them by the end of

As Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff completes her first full year in power, the country shows every sign of retaining its place a

BMI View: Enhanced oil recovery (EOR) schemes and investments from both IOCs and NOCs underscore our bullish view of the UAE’s oil

Tourism Overview / The tourism sector in the UAE looks set to record another good year in 2011, after a strong recovery in the pr

Egypt's near-term growth outlook remains weak. Nevertheless, in an outlook pertinent for our food and drink forecasts, household a

Our outlook for Ireland's long-term growth requires a rebalancing of the economy towards exports. We are fairly optimistic that Ir

We are cautiously optimistic on the near-term domestic demand outlook of Malaysia. A deteriorating macroeconomic outlook is expect

Growing macroeconomic headwinds in Europe and the government's firm adherence to additional fiscal consolidation will see the Lith

BMI View: Domestic demand conditions in the Philippines are expected to soften in 2012. While remittance growth has held up well i

While significant downside political and economic risks remain in play, the stability provided by the functional unity government

Market Overview In 2012, BMI forecasts Austalian IT market growth of 5%, with spending of US$21.8bn, compared with US$20.8bn in 20

IT spending is forecast to reach US$124.4bn in 2012, increasing to US$192.3bn by 2016. Despite an expected moderation in investmen

India's potentially vast IT market appears set to continue a strong recovery in 2012 owing to a growing economy and healthy consum

Market Overview / Malaysian IT spending is expected to grow to US$5.2bn in 2012, from US$4.9bn in 2011. BMI forecasts 9% overall

Market Overview / Mexico's IT spending is expected to grow at a CAGR of 10.7% over 2012-2016, but with strong variation between s

The total size of the Omani IT market in 2012 is forecast by BMI to be worth US$363mn, up from an estimated US$339mn in 2011. BMI

We expect 2012 to be a challenging year for Slovak consumers and businesses, with both domestic and external risks becoming increa

The Greek government has announced another round of spending cuts, with the axe falling heavily on defence spending once again. On

Following the death of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il, the Korean peninsula appears to be in a state of calm as both North and So

There has been slow progress in relations between the governments of Juba and Khartoum since our last update with unstable relatio

Growth in organised retailing is playing a major role in the development of Central America’s consumer sector, with the local unit

While the lives of Japanese consumers are slowly returning to normal after the March tragedy, they are now facing growing external

We continue to retain our bullish outlook for Qatar owing to its enviable hydrocarbon-based economy. We are pencilling in a 28.0%

South Africa is an established regional powerhouse, standing out as an attractive destination among other emerging markets given t

The middle class in the US has struggled over the past decade as its share of the country’s wealth fell. We expect consumption gro

Argentina's IT spending is forecast by BMI to grow at a CAGR of 8% between 2012-2016, consolidating a strong performance in 2011.

Market Overview Kuwait, the third-largest computer market in the Gulf, has recovered from the economic slowdown, and local IT spen

Market Overview / With its booming economy and ambitious ICT investment programme, Qatar is expected to be the fastestgrowing IT

Saudi Arabia has the biggest IT market in the Gulf region, with a forecast value of US$3.8bn in 2011 expected to rise to US$5.7bn

Market Overview BMI expects South African IT spending to increase from US$11.9bn in 2012 to about US$20.0bn in 2016, faster than r

Market Overview / The UAE's spending on IT products and services is projected to reach nearly US$3.8bn in 2012 with slower growth

Market Overview / The total size of the addressable Bahrain IT market in 2012 is forecast by BMI to be US$373mn, up from an estim

BMI's Middle East and Africa (MEA) IT Business Environment Ratings compare the potential of the key regional markets over our fore

BMI View: Hong Kong’s construction sector continues to enjoy the fiscal measures aimed at combating the global recession in 2008 a

The German steel market is losing momentum and steel-makers are likely to review their operations in the country over coming month

Indian metals production will hit headwinds in 2012 as market growth moderates in the face of a slowdown in the automotive industr

The Italian steel industry continues to enjoy one of the strongest performances in the EU, contributing a fifth of overall EU grow

The Malaysian steel industry is developing apace and will continue to grow over the next five years, despite economic headwinds, a

Korean metals consumption growth is set to moderate sharply in 2012 as the country’s exports of manufactured goods are hit by a gl

The Swedish steel industry is set for a sharp decline in output in 2012 as export markets deteriorate and the domestic market cont

The situation facing the Taiwanese steel industry has declined markedly over recent months as Chinese economic growth slows, promp

We forecast Peru's mining sector to grow by 13.6% in 2012, reaching US$20.6bn, as investment continues to flow into the country. W

Poland's mining sector looks likely to change fundamentally over the coming years owing to the government's privatisation drive. I

BMI View: Without the price reforms and improvements in the broader operating environment needed to spur development of Argentina’

BMI View: Bahrain has a far smaller oil and gas resource base than its neighbours, but is a leading regional refined products expo

BMI View: The discovery of billions of barrels of oil in the so-called subsalt oil province offshore Brazil has been one of the mo

BMI View: With limited domestic oil and gas resources and rapidly rising demand, Chile is set to become increasingly reliant on im

BMI View: Colombia’s oil sector has seen impressive levels of growth since the mid-2000’s, and we expect that positive trend to co

BMI View: Oil has flowed at a fairly consistent rate from Ecuador over recent years and this should continue until least 2014. How

BMI View: Over the next decade, Israel is set to benefit from one of the Middle East’s most exciting hydrocarbon growth stories. W

The BMI global oil supply and demand assumptions for 2011 and beyond have again been revisited, reflecting changes in the oil mark

BMI View: Peru's burgeoning oil and gas sector is undergoing a period of transition after the election of President Ollanta Humala

BMI View: Trinidad & Tobago’s vital LNG sector faces an uncertain future. The industry was largely developed to deliver gas to the

BMI View: Venezuela’s oil sector operates at the extremes. Few, if any, countries can match it in terms of untapped growth potenti

BMI View: Both industry-specific and macroeconomic factors continue to underpin our view that Canada's mature electricity market w

BMI View: Colombia continues to turn to hydropower as its key source of energy, and while droughts are considered to be the key ri

BMI View: In spite of substantial renewables potential, particularly in solar and wind sectors, Egypt looks set to remain over-dep

BMI View: While France continues its commitment to nuclear technology for energy production, there are changes ahead for the secto

BMI View: Germany stands at the crossroads of a new energy future. No path is without issues, as finding a suitable and rapid repl

BMI View: The prospect that Iran will develop its nuclear capacity is central to the country’s power industry and its ability to m

BMI View: As the public says no to nuclear, Italy resigns itself to a future of greater import dependency, a continued high-level

BMI View: Nuclear energy may be on the distant horizon for Kuwait, but its near- to medium-term power future depends almost exclus

BMI View: Unlikely as it may seem, Qatar has struggled to ensure adequate electricity supply in spite of its vast natural gas reso

BMI View: Saudi Arabia is facing up to the realities of its power generation situation and has recognised the need to wean itself

BMI View: Several factors have prompted us to revise our forecasts for South Africa's power sector. Following the release of some

BMI View: Spain is considering a nuclear and renewables-based future rather than continued dependence on fossil fuels, but there i

BMI View: Clean coal, nuclear and renewables all form part of the long-term energy plan, although it would be a surprise to see th

BMI View: In Britain, the power clock is ticking. Key decisions must be reached and new policies implemented. Nuclear is to be a k

The most prevalent development in Argentina’s overall real estate market in recent months has been the restriction that the govern

The outlook for Peru’s property market is positive, underpinned by strong economic growth and rising domestic consumption combined

The Q112 BMI Saudi Arabia Retail Report forecasts that the country’s retail sales will grow from an estimated SAR275.19bn (US$73.4

BMI’s Q112 South Africa Retail Report forecasts that the country’s retail sales will grow by 50.7% from an estimated ZAR622.91bn (

The Q112 BMI UAE Retail report forecasts that the country’s retail sales will grow from an estimated AED113.37bn (US$30.87bn) in 2

For another quarter, the Canadian telecommunications market continues along its steady growth trajectory, and no major adjustments

In this quarter's update of BMI's Finland Telecommunications Market report, we have extended our forecasts for the country's fixed

BMI’s Q112 update to the Netherlands Telecoms Report contains extended forecasts through to 2016 for the mobile, fixed-line and br

BMI’s Q112 report on South Korea’s telecommunications market provides a comprehensive overview of the latest developments to occur

In this quarter’s update on Taiwan’s telecoms market, we have incorporated the latest available data from Taiwanese telecoms opera

Another Strong Year Tourist arrivals to Singapore remained strong during 2011. Looking at data for January-October, a total of 10,

Tourism Overview The rate of growth in foreign tourism broadly slowed during the course of 2011, after an impressive start earlier

Market Overview / The Czech Republic's IT market is forecast to increase from US$4.9bn in 2012 to around US$6.2bn in 2016. Consum

The earthquake in Japan in March 2011 will have a significant bearing on the country's metals industry for years to come. In the s

In late October 2011 France concluded its support of NATO military operations over Libya and around the country’s coastline, follo

The eurozone debt crisis has continued to roll on, posing a major challenge for the German government. While domestically any move

Defence spending is being severely impacted by the scale of Italy’s economic crisis and the resultant austerity measures. In Augus

The outcome of presidential elections in January 2012 will set the tone of cross-strait relations for the next few years. / While

The latest results from Canadian retailers suggest that the consumer market continues to be something of an outperformer in terms

The ongoing global headwinds, particularly the poor outlook for growth in the US and sovereign debt concerns in the eurozone, pose

The rate of growth remains anaemic in Italy. The onset of fiscal austerity amid a deterioration in eurozone economic activity will

We remain cautious on the near-term retail outlook for Taiwan. A bleak outlook on the global economic environment, especially that

Market Overview / Egypt's IT spending is expected to increase from US$1.7bn in 2012 to US$3.2bn by 2016. The Egyptian IT market g

Hungarian IT spending is forecast to grow modestly in 2012 against the backdrop of a still-difficult domestic political and econom

Market Overview / BMI projects that the Israeli IT market will grow to a value of US$6.1bn in 2012, consolidating a recovery in 2

Slovenia's IT market is forecast to stabilise in 2012 as the market recovers from the effects of the economic crisis. Slovenian IT

Market Overview / The Swedish IT market is the largest in the Nordic region and despite the economic problems it is projected to

Market Overview The size of the strategically located Turkish IT market is forecast to increase from US$7.9bn in 2012 to US$14.4bn

The total size of the Bulgarian IT market in 2012 is estimated by BMI at around US$1.1bn, up from US$1.0bn in 2011. BMI expects a

Overview / Croatian IT spending is estimated by BMI at around US$1.1bn in 2012, up from US$1.0bn in 2011, when the IT market was

Market Overview / Serbian spending on IT products and services is estimated by BMI at around US$738mn in 2012, up from US$696mn i

BMI View: The number of approved projects in Cambodia's construction sector grew rapidly in 2011, supporting our robust outlook fo

BMI View: With construction and energy projects worth US$125bn planned over the coming years, Qatar's construction industry will s

BMI View: The UAE's infrastructure sector is, to a great extent, buttressing the growth we are forecasting for the Emirates. Howev

BMI’s view that UK construction industry growth would slow significantly in 2011 has fully played out and we maintain this subdued

Although Latvia’s construction industry made significant strides in emerging from sharp contractions through 2011, BMI’s calculati

Lithuania’s infrastructure sector has suffered severely from the knock-on effects of the country’s financial situation. The countr

New data illustrating the weighting of infrastructure in construction illustrates the driving force that infrastructure has provid

The outlook for the Spanish steel industry is poor, with the repercussions of the current adverse economic circumstances likely to

We maintain our view that Ukrainian steel production growth will be more subdued in 2011 and 2012 following strong growth in 2010.

We expect the sudden growth in steel production in the UK in H111 to be short-lived as the country experiences a sluggish domestic

BMI View: The Belarusian pharmaceutical market has strong long-term potential given its position bordering the EU and Russia, its

BMI View: Foreign pharmaceutical investors will place Cambodia low on their interest lists as the country is still plagued by corr

BMI View: Demographic considerations – in combination with concerted cost-containment pressures that form part of fiscal austerity

BMI View: South Africa's timescale for enacting its National Health Insurance (NHI) scheme is practical and achievable, as are the

BMI View: Sri Lanka’s pharmaceutical market is expected to post a 2010-2015 compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.2%, as measur

The Three Tiers Of The MEA Region The countries of the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region vary greatly in the regulation of their

BMI View: With the opening of Argentina’s Atucha II plant in late September 2011, and as work commenced to extend the Embalse plan

BMI View: Following the worst droughts in over 60 years, Chile has had to rethink its energy provision strategy, as water shortage

BMI View: Mexico continues to aim high in order to meet its ambitious targets for energy produced from renewable sources, with thi

BMI View: The government may claim that efforts over the past two years to encourage energy efficiency have been effective – the M

BMI’s Caribbean Telecommunications Report covers the nations of Barbados, the Bahamas, the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Haiti,

Hong Kong’s mobile industry grew by 1.6% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) to reach 14.42mn in September 2011. Excluding inactive prepaid

BMI’s Q112 report on the Russian telecommunications market contains updated and extended forecasts for the mobile, mobile ARPU, fi

BMI updated Lithuania report for 2012 contains revised and extended forecasts that predict how the country’s fixed-line, internet,

This quarter sees BMI extend its forecasts for Austria's fixed-line, mobile and broadband markets through to 2016 and these have b

BMI's Q112 update on Egypt's telecommunications market contains the latest operational and financial data for 9M11. The new data h

BMI's Q112 Iraq's telecommunications market report provides a comprehensive overview of the latest developments to occur within th

The Q112 update of the BMI report on Sweden's telecommunications market utilises the latest data published by the country's incumb

Fall In Tourism Arrivals Expected For 2011 Speaking in parliament in November 2011, deputy tourism minister James Dawos Mamit said

The medium-term macroeconomic outlook across emerging Europe has improved considerably since the beginning of H209, when Central a

Brazil reported impressive growth in Q311. Mobile subscriber net additions totalled 10mn, while the expansion of the PNBL has led

The second half of 2011 proved to be a transitional period in Japanese politics and also in defence, with new Prime Minister Yoshi

Pakistan’s security outlook remained severe in the closing stages of 2011, as terrorists continued to stage bomb attacks in Peshaw

The consumer outlook for Belarus will remain extremely challenging, largely on account of massive currency devaluation and skyrock

Sub-Saharan Africa has done relatively well post-2008 in comparison with the rest of the global economy, with many countries in th

There is no question that the past few years have been difficult, but recently Ukraine had started to look better on the consumer

Market Overview / The French IT market is the third largest in Europe and, despite current economic headwinds, is projected to gr

Market Overview / The German IT market is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 3% over 2012-2016, with a continued impact on business an

Market Overview / Polish IT spending is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% between 2012 and 2016, wi

Market Overview / Romanian IT spending is forecast to grow strongly over BMI's 2012-2016 forecast period as the economy recovers.

Market Overview Russian IT spending is expected to record double-digit growth in 2012, following a strong performance in 2011 acro

Market Overview The UK IT market is the largest in Europe but, due to a faltering economic recovery, trading conditions remain tou

BMI View: Double-digit contractions in the Bulgarian construction sector during H111 have done little to bolster our outlook for t

Forecasting Restrained / Following the Egyptian Revolution in February 2011, construction activity resumed relatively quickly, wi

BMI View: Kazakhstan’s construction industry remains buoyant this quarter, with year-on-year (y-o-y) growth expected to come in at

Our forecast that Mexico’s construction industry would post robust, if not spectacular, growth over 2011 remains firmly in place,

BMI View: The potential of the Slovakian pharmaceutical market in the short term has been subdued by recent legislative changes. T

Despite fundamental and deep-rooted problems in Venezuela’s construction industry, 2011 should see it return to growth, following

The Austrian steel industry will contract in 2012 due to the deterioration in external markets, but will not experience a collapse

A decline in demand growth in export markets has dealt a blow for the Belgian steel industry, according to BMI’s latest Belgium Me

With Czech export performance a major determinant of the performance of the country’s steel industry, the crisis in the eurozone c

In terms of growth, the Polish steel industry is one of the best performing in Europe, but output remains well below pre-recession

The decline in the Romanian steel industry seen in 2011 will deepen in 2012 as the external environment deteriorates, but the coun

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)'s vast mineral resources continue to attract international interest, with a number of inter

We expect Indonesia's mining industry value to reach US$147bn in real terms by 2015, almost double that of 2010. The country will

Indigenisation Debate Becomes More Heated BMI believes that the Zimbabwean government may stand to lose significant amounts of inv

BMI View: Gas self-sufficiency will not last much longer, thanks to rising domestic consumption that could be boosted by power pro

BMI View: Brazil’s large population, combined with strong private consumption, bodes well for foreign drugmakers looking to capita

BMI View: At a value of CLP1,381bn (US$2.71bn), drug expenditure in Chile represented 1.32% of GDP in 2010, while per capita spend

BMI View: Ghana’s pharmaceutical market is expected to post double-digit year-on-year (y-o-y) growth again in 2011, which will par

BMI View: It is beyond doubt that drugmakers in Greece – particularly domestic producers primarily exposed to their home market –

BMI View: India’s pharmaceutical market will increasingly attract foreign drugmakers. The government has made a clear statement th

BMI View: According to the figures provided by l’Association Marocaine de l’Industrie Pharmaceutique (AMIP), drug expenditure in M

BMI View: Renewed liberalisation of Russia’s pharmaceutical market could follow the final approval of the country’s membership of

BMI View: We believe the Spanish government's austerity measures are a necessary and prudent course of action. The country still h

BMI View: Healthcare spending in the US will continue to account for a disproportionately large percentage of its GDP. Citizens of

BMI View: Despite strong growth potential, the government’s protectionist policy of preventing foreignowned companies from distrib

BMI View: The major players in Asian power supply are clamouring to invest in Cambodia, with the result being that huge expansion

BMI View: India has various options in terms of meeting rising power demand. As a result, capacity and supply growth will be sprea

BMI View: Pakistan has a potentially varied and rich menu of power options from which to choose. There is vast untapped hydro and

BMI View: Japan’s nuclear woes following the 2011 earthquake and tsunami appear to have done little to derail South Korea’s plans

BMI View: Thailand is capable of avoiding an increase in power import dependency if it attracts sufficient investment, but the cou

The Q112 BMI Mexico Retail report forecasts the country’s retail sales to grow from an expected MXN2,323bn (US$196.85bn) in 2011 t

BMI’s inaugural report on the telecommunications markets of East Africa contains five-year forecasts for the fixed-line telephony,

BMI’s Q1 2012 report on Ukraine’s Telecommunications Market contains revised and extended forecasts, which predict how the country

BMI’s Q112 update to the UAE’s telecommunications market report incorporates market data from the Telecommunications Regulatory Au

BMI’s Q112 update to Serbia’s telecommunications market report contains updated and extended forecasts that predict how the countr

BMI has introduced a new quarterly format for reporting on developments in Belarus’ telecommunications market. Our 2012 report con

BMI has introduced a new quarterly format for reporting on developments in Israel’s telecommunications market. Our first quarterly

BMI’s updated 2012 report contains revised and extended forecasts that predict how the country’s fixedline, internet, broadband an

Positive Growth Maintained In Late 2011 Data released by the Caribbean Tourism Organisation (CTO) showed the region maintained gro

In 2009, Egypt is estimated to have accounted for almost 41% of North African travel and tourism demand. The Egyptian tourism mark

Core Forecasts / Tourist arrivals into Indonesia for the first 10 months of 2011 continued to show strong growth, in line with BM

Slow Growth Continues In 2011 Data released by Secretaría de Turismo (Ministry of Tourism, Sectur) in December 2011 showed that to

Major Flooding Weighs On Tourist Arrivals Major flooding during Thailand’s monsoon season, particularly between October and Decemb

Strong Growth In Year To November Figures released by the Vietnam National Administration of Tourism (VNAT) in December showed tha

BMI View: Egypt’s descent into political turmoil must have serious consequences for the country’s critical infrastructure sectors,

BMI View: Saudi Arabia’s water sector is poised for a period of significant activity over the next year, as the government – under

BMI View: The UAE is consolidating its position as a major growth market for water developers. Dubai is expected to make significa

BMI View: While India’s upstream oil prospects appear to be limited, the discovery and ongoing development / of significant gas r

BMI View: Construction activity for the first quarter of FY2011/12 (April-June) was weak, with inflation / and interest rates in

In 2011 India began to realise its potential as the world’s most important emerging market for defence / equipment, announcing a

Indonesia found itself at the heart of Asian – if not world – diplomacy in November 2011, as Bali played / host to back-to-back g

With Libyan leader Colonel Muammar Qadhafi now dead, and the rebel Transitional National Council / (TNC) now the de facto governm

The Spanish defence industry is seeing an increasing spending squeeze, in line with general budgetary trimming and austerity measu

Syria continues to crack down brutally on anti-regime protesters with the most recent (July 2011) assaults / on Hama and the east

The UK’s defence budget cuts, announced in 2010 as part of a wider policy of fiscal retrenchment to / address the country’s defic

Bosnia is still without a government, despite parliamentary elections having taken place in October / 2011,with the country showi

In 2011 BMI estimates that defence spending fell by 1.12% in Jordanian dinar terms, to JOD1.01bn. This / fall is viewed as tempor

Over the course of 2011, two significant trends have lent themselves to a renewed interest in the activities / of North Korea, an

In 2012 BMI expects a significant rise in dollar spending on the Ukrainian defence forces – up to / US$4.65bn from 2011’s figure

Although it is yet to be seen what effect (if any) the killing of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi by antigovernment / militants wil

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has maintained political and economic stability in a region fraught with / turbulence. High living

The Dutch economy returned to growth in 2010, with full-year GDP coming in at 1.8% year-on-year (yo-y). However, in the second hal

BMI View: While Romania’s plans to greatly expand its nuclear generation capacity are in disarray, / there is growing support for

While the domestic economy will find strength in Singapore’s job and tourism market, consumption is / typically hit hard as expor

Chile-based retailer Cencosud has revealed that it remains committed to Peru following the election of / left-leaning President O

BMI View: Chile's construction industry is due to record a bumper year in 2011. While we do not / anticipate this high growth rat

BMI’s overall forecast for France’s infrastructure sector remains positive, and we expect the industry to / report annual growth

Greece’s ongoing economic crisis has continued to have a considerably negative effect on the country’s / construction sector and

BMI View: Although construction activity in the third quarter of 2011 has seen a recovery, this was / weaker than anticipated and

BMI View: The growing number of risks facing the Taiwanese construction industry are dampening our / expectations for a robust re

The present situation is that political stability in Yemen is deteriorating quickly. Large-scale anti-regime / protests have turn

Latest data suggest that the rebound seen in H111 weakened significantly in the second half of the year. / Indeed, slower real GD

China's consumption and supply of copper, steel, aluminium, lead, nickel and tin increased substantially / in 2011 due to base ef

2011 will be a lost year for Egyptian metals production, with the civil unrest and political uncertainty / undermining performanc

In the first 10 months of the 2011 calendar year, Iranian crude steel output grew 10.6% y-o-y, to 10.9mn / tonnes, continuing the

The Turkish steel industry is being supported by a dynamic economy that made it one of the fastest / growing in the world in 2011

Zambia's mining sector is set to continue the recovery seen over the last decade. The country had / declining copper output throu

BMI View: Oil sands-based liquids supply and shale gas production form the foundation of Canada’s energy / supply outlook. Conven

BMI View: Squabbles over ownership of the Karachaganak project have threatened to undermine IOC / involvement in Kazakhstan, alth

BMI View: Given Romania’s long history of oil/gas reserves and production, it would be surprising if renewed / exploration effort

The US saw key developments in Q3 with its downgrade by S&P for US debt and the lifting of the / debt ceiling by the US governmen