Core Views The UAE's reputation as a 'safe haven' in a volatile region will continue to serve the economy well, although growth wi

Core Views Rising security concerns, both domestically amid various feuding factions and internationally between Sudan and South S

Core Views We believe the South African economy will continue its uneven recovery over the medium term, with real GDP growth forec

Core Views We expect robust growth in the years ahead, bolstered primarily by the non-oil sectors, which will benefit from burgeon

Core Views We retain our broadly sanguine outlook on Kuwait's economic prospects for 2012. Elevated global hydrocarbon prices will

Core Views: We believe that Kenyan economic activity will pick up over the course of 2012 as inflation falls and monetary policy i

Core Views Despite heightened rhetoric, we do not believe Iran’s threats to close the Strait of Hormuz are credible. Any cut-off i

Core Views Not only is real GDP growth expected to surge in 2012 as the economy recovers from the 2011 crisis, but long-term growt

Core Views We are forecasting real GDP growth in Botswana of 4.2% in 2012 and 5.4% in 2013. The solid outlook is driven by growing

Core Views Venezuela faces major political and economic uncertainty in the run-up to and immediate aftermath of the October 2012 p

Core Views The below-par but sustained US recovery continues, in line with our view that the economy would avoid a double-dip rece

Core Views We have turned cautiously optimistic regarding Mexico's growth story, bumping up our average real GDP growth forecast f

Core Views Robust economic growth will continue to be driven primarily by strong private consumption levels, with consumer-focused

Core Views Blessed with favourable demographics, a large consumer base and a wealth of natural resources, Brazil offers some of th

Core Views The economy is recovering, but with fiscal cuts looming and unemployment stubbornly high, the rate of growth will be fa

Core Views We have revised our 2012 forecast for Swiss real GDP growth. Following estimated 2011 growth of 1.9%, our significantly

Political Ratings The political ratings are an indicator of political stability, seen as a prerequisite for a stable economy and b

Core Views We still expect the Hungarian economy to contract in real GDP terms in 2012 despite the strong Q411 growth figure. All

Core Views Germany’s manufacturing base will remain weighed down by weak foreign orders, while the fragility surrounding the respo

Core Views Estonia's economic growth will slow to 2.7% in 2012 in real GDP terms, from 7.6% in 2011. While this remains the strong

Core Views The outlook for Croatia's economy in 2012 remains dour and we forecast a full-year contraction of 1.5% in real terms. A

Composite Rating The composite rating is an unweighted geometric mean of the short-term political and short-term economy ratings,

Core Views We expect Bulgaria’s economic growth to be weighed down by significantly weaker aggregate demand in the eurozone and pe

Core Views Following 2011's disappointing GDP growth of 3.7%, we estimate that the Philippine economy will bounce back only increm

Core Views Looking ahead at the next fiscal year (FY2012/13, July-June), we expect a recovery in economic growth as domestic deman

Core Views Latest indicators continue to point towards a slowdown in economic activity over the coming months, supporting our view

Core Views The Indian National Congress (INC) lost heavily in the country's recent state elections. The ruling United Progressive

Core Views We have revised our 2012 growth forecast downwards and expect real GDP growth to slow from 5.0% to 2.2%, compared with

Core Views China's real GDP came in at 8.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) and 7.2% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) on a seasonally adjusted basi

Core Views: France's economy is showing signs of a sharp economic slowdown in light of the deteriorating global macroeconomic back

Core Views / We reiterate that Turkey's economy is set to undergo a sharp slowdown / in 2012. A combination of weak external activ

Core Views / Although growth opportunities exist across a range of consumeroriented / sectors, Argentina's investment environment

Core Views / We remain generally optimistic that Iceland's economy can pull itself / out of its present malaise. However, there wi

Core Views / The Greek economy will remain mired in depression through 2012 as / deep fiscal retrenchment and internal devaluation

Core Views / We are forecasting Ethiopian real GDP growth of 7.8% in 2012 and / 7.2% in 2013, a moderation from the estimated 8.8%

Core Views / Despite increasing inflation, a difficult business environment, and / an unstable political situation, BMI is predict

Core Views / We expect weakened external demand to hit the Czech Republic's / economic growth hard in 2012. The Czech economy rema

Core Views / Broadly in line with consensus, we believe Colombia will become a / regional outperformer in 2012. / Private consumpt

Composite Rating / The composite rating is an unweighted geometric mean of the short-term political and short-term economy ratings

Core Views / Elevated risks of instability in Israel's neighbours, including Jordan, / Lebanon, Syria, and the West Bank and Gaza,

Core Views / I ndonesia is likely to continue to outperform its peers in 2012, as we / are pencilling in strong 5.8% growth follow

Core Views / Qatar’s short-term political risk profile remains among the most / stable in the region. Despite enjoying little in t

Core Views / Belarus will avoid recession this year owing to Russian financial / support and positive trade dynamics. However, the

Core Views / Public unrest owing to heightened tensions between the ruling Awami / League (AL) and its main opposition, the Bangla

Core Views / After a robust showing in 2011, with growth at 3.1%, we forecast / the Austrian economy to post significantly slower

Core Views / The new technocratic government led by Mario Monti will embark on / a last-ditch attempt to restructure the economy a

Core Views / With households still in the midst of deleveraging and weakening / external conditions, New Zealand's real GDP growth

Core Views / The Lithuanian economy will continue along its road of gradual economic / recovery following its painful internal dev

Composite Rating / The composite rating is an unweighted geometric mean of the short-term political and short-term economy ratings

Core Views / We believe that economic recovery in Thailand will remain relatively / subdued in 2012 as a return to full production

Core Views / We believe that real GDP growth in Tanzania will slow to 5.5% in / 2012, from an estimated 6.2% in 2011, as high infl

Composite Rating / The composite rating is an unweighted geometric mean of the short-term political and short-term economy ratings

Core Views / We believe that a full resolution to the name dispute with Greece is / highly unlikely in the foreseeable future. The

Core Views / Zambia will post strong growth in the years ahead, although our / below-consensus view on external factors, particula

Core Views / Ukraine's economic recovery lost some momentum heading into the / second quarter of 2011 and a deteriorating global g

Composite Rating / The composite rating is an unweighted geometric mean of the short-term political and short-term economy ratings

Core Views / Sweden's status as an open trade-oriented economy means that / the ongoing European economic crisis poses significant

Core Views / We expect South Korea's real GDP growth to slow to a belowconsensus / 1.9% in 2012. China has recently lowered its GD

Core Views / We are forecasting Rwandan real GDP growth of 7.5% in 2012 and / 7.6% in 2013, a slight moderation from the estimated

Core Views / Romania's return to growth has so far been driven primarily by / external demand for Romanian exports. As the eurozon

Core Views / Portugal is in the midst of a deep recession that will last until at least / 2013. We do not see substantially higher

Core Views / Peruvian growth will be among the strongest in Latin America over / the medium term. Our real GDP growth forecasts ar

Core Views / D riven by strong investment in its promising subsalt oil reserves / and by a boom in exports from its already develo

Core Views / The Dutch economy's growth outlook is set to seriously deteriorate / in the coming quarters, as the eurozone sovereig

Core Views / Growth in 2012 is expected to pick up from 2011 as agricultural / output hampered by flooding recovers and mining pro

Composite Rating / The composite rating is an unweighted geometric mean of the short-term political and short-term economy ratings

Core Views / We expect real GDP growth to fall significantly to 8.1% in 2012, from 9.2% in 2011 as the investment boom comes to an

Core Views / Our forecast for Hong Kong’s 2011 real GDP growth is 5.0%, which falls at the lower end of the government’s projectio

Core Views / The growth slowdown in India is now well under way, led by a downturn in the country’s investment cycle. Gross fixed

Core Views / The earthquake and tsunami should have tipped the economy back into recession in the middle of this year as destroyed

Core Views / We believe that private consumption and investment growth will support domestic demand in Malaysia 2011. This should

Core Views / We are projecting a recovery of 3.8% real GDP growth for FY 2011/12 (July-June), which is below consensus. Investment

Core Views / We maintain our view that the Philippine economy will register respectable growth of 5.0% in 2011, driven by resurgen

Core Views / Bulgaria’s economic recovery will continue to be primarily export-led, driving the economic expansion to our forecast

Core Views / Tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia continue to rise, and increases in military spending and more incidents of is

Core Views / Our long-held view that Croatia will join the EU in 2013 has been reaffirmed by the European Commission’s proposal to

Core Views / Estonia is well on the road to recovery, with real GDP growth forecast to accelerate to 5.0% in 2011, before falling

Core Views / France’s economic recovery continues to prove broad-based, with industry and manufacturing supporting the already str

Core Views / Although the German economy continues to fire on all cylinders, underpinning our constructive (above-consensus) outlo

Core Views / Hungary’s pace of economic growth will not pick up considerably over the coming years as fiscal austerity and debt de

Core Views / Switzerland will enjoy continued economic expansion through the coming quarters, driven by robust private consumption

Core Views / The economy is recovering, but with fiscal cuts looming and inflation running at double the official target rate, the

Core Views / Robust economic growth will continue to be driven primarily by strong private consumption levels, with consumer-focus

Core Views / Following disappointing economic data in the first half of 2011, we expect a modest acceleration of growth in the sec

Core Views / Mexico will remain an EM underperformer for the duration of our 10-year forecast period, with our growth projections

Core Views / After two consecutive years of recession we believe that Venezuela will post positive real GDP growth in 2011. Petrol

Core Views / Blessed with favourable demographics, a wealth of natural resources, and a stable banking sector Brazil offers some o

Core Views / Diamond production and export values continue to expand, headlining economic growth that we expect to reach 4.8% in 2

Core Views / Real GDP growth will surge in 2012 as the economy recovers from 2011 crisis before settling into average growth above

Core Views / The uptick in crude oil prices since the start of 2011 will benefit Iran’s economy substantially through investment-f

Core Views / Rising food prices, the slow implementation of the constitution, uncertainty about the date of the elections and the

Core Views / We reiterate our long-held view that inflationary pressures in Kuwait will remain subdued throughout 2011, and mainta

Core Views / Nigeria is set to experience strong growth, underpinned by the oil sector, private consumption, and increasing invest

Core Views / BMI sees the South African economy continuing its uneven recovery over the medium term, with real GDP growth forecast

Core Views / Post-secession military clashes along the disputed border between Sudan and South Sudan are likely to continue over t

Core Views / We are broadly in line with consensus in our forecast that sees real GDP expanding by 3.3% in 2011, and averaging 3.7

Core Views / The crux of Serbia’s economic recovery continues to rest on external demand and, to a growing extent, investment expe

The risks to the global economy are mounting, following the earthquake and tsunami in Japan in March and the spike in oil prices o

Core Views: / Owing to favourable base effects, increased investment and a stronger business environment, we see the French econo

Core View: / Thailand’s real GDP growth will moderate in 2011 as the inventory restocking cycle starts to wind down. A robust lab

Core Views / We do not envision real GDP returning to 2008 levels within our five-year forecast horizon. / Lithuania’s internal

Core Views: / While strong industrial activity and exports will keep growth well supported, household consumption will be constra

Core Views / Record demand for Romanian exports is catalysing robust expansion in Romania’s manufacturing and industrial sectors.

Oman – Impact Of Unrest Minimal, But Risks Remain / Although social protests were not priced into our GDP growth forecasts for Om

Core Views / Economic expansion should gather pace in the early part of 2011, with the rebound in personal consumption and privat

Core Views / Sweden will remain a European outperformer, with growth forecast to come in at 4.4% in 2011. S weden is among the be

Core Views / The Italian economy will continue to recover in 2011, but the rate of growth will remain anaemic. / With the scanda

Core Views: / Tanzania’s economy is expected to see strong real economic growth in 2011 and 2012 of 6.5% and 6.6% respectively.

Stellar Growth For Resource-Based Economies / The Q2 2011 Kazakhstan and Central Asia Business Forecast report highlights the str

Core Views / We expect South Korea’s real GDP growth to slow to 4.0% in 2011, missing the government’s 5.0% growth target . / In

Core View: / The Czech Republic will continue to benefit from an export-led recovery bolstered by buoyant demand in key export ma

Insulated From Social Upheaval? / The outlook across the Levant looks increasingly fragile, as unprecedented unrest sweeping acro

Core View: / Peruvian growth will be among the strongest in Latin America over the medium term. Our real GDP growth forecasts com

Risks Rising / I n our Q211 Central America Business Forecast Report we focus on the growing risks facing the region over the nex

Core Views / The domestic consumer will lead the way in terms of driving growth, but exports and fixed investment will provide in

Core Views: / Zambia will be see strong growth in the coming years, and BMI’s forecasts for 2011 and 2012 real GDP growth are bot

Core Views / We are roughly in line with consensus in our forecast for 4.3% real GDP growth in Turkey in 2011 and see growth aver

Core Views / Qatar’s economy will continue to grow rapidly in 2011, despite the very high base set by the 15.9% real expansion re

Core Views / The Greek economy will remain mired in depression through 2011 as deep fiscal retrenchment and internal devaluation

Core View: / We expect Angola’s long-awaited recovery to take shape in 2011 as high oil prices and broad macro stability set the

Core Views: / Broadly in line with consensus, we believe that Colombia will become a regional outperformer by 2012. Gross fixed c

Core Views / We expect a marginal slowdown in Bangladesh’s economy for FY 2010/11, with real GDP growth coming in at 5.6% from 5.

Core Views: / We forecast real GDP growth of 4.5% driven by a strong recovery in the mining and construction sectors. I ncrease o

Core Views: / Indonesia will remain a key outperformer within the South East Asian region / Rising consumer price inflation is w

Core Views / We are below consensus in our growth forecasts for Ukraine, with real GDP forecast to expand by 3.6% in 2011, compar

Risk Of MENA -Style Political Unrest Still Low A key question following the outburst of political unrest and instability in the Mi

Core Views / We believe the damages caused by the second Christchurch earthquake, ongoing property correction and debt deleveragi

Core Views: / Ethiopia will be see strong growth in the coming years, and BMI’s forecasts for 2011 and 2012 real GDP growth will

Recovery In Full Swing, But Political Risks Elevated / Israel faces a number of political and economic challenges heading into 20

The New Age Of Uncertainty / T he political landscape across the Middle East and North Africa is / changing at a remarkable speed.

Still Waters Run Deep / While Cameroon may appear calm on the surface, long-simmering / discontent could suddenly boil over. Aware

Life After Mubarak: Now Comes The / Hard Part / E gypt has been thrown into the global spotlight after unprecedented / demonstr

Economy Returns To Form, / But Slowdown Still On Course / A lthough West Africa continues to benefit from the strengthening / glob

A Transformative Year / T he coming year should be a transformative one for the Ghanaian / economy. The onset of oil production sh

Government Formation and Oil Output / Gains Bode Well For The Economy / I raq continues to face significant challenges, but the co

Economy To Surge In Spite Of Inflation / Risks / T he scene is set for Mozambique to flourish over the coming years. / The country

North Africa: Moderate Contagion Risks / T he four frontier markets of North Africa (Algeria, Libya, Morocco / and Tunisia) certai

Robust Growth, But Politics Could / Raise Risks / We continue to highlight further growth potential for Saudi Arabia, / underpinne

Political Risks Precede Economic / Opportunity / With immense oil revenue on the horizon providing a potentially / huge boost to a

Finding A Recipe For Broad-Based / Growth / Zimbabwe faces some uncertainty in 2011. Most notably, it is not / clear when and in w

ALP Government Increasingly / Challenged / T he Australian economy experienced a slowdown in Q310, growing / by a sluggish 0.2% qu

Fiscal Crisis Risks Growing / Japan’s economy is likely to experience a strong H111 as the / export engine revs in response to a p

External Demand To Buoy Economy In / 2011 / A dvance estimates by the Ministry of Trade and Industry indicate / that Singapore’

Investing For The Future / S ri Lanka is poised for another strong year in 2011. Even though we / remain below consensus with our

Healthy Growth Ahead / T aiwan’s growth outlook has improved, with recent indicators / pointing to a steady momentum. However, we

Strained Relations With China Set To / Continue / Vietnam’s real GDP growth came in at a better-than-expected 6.8% / in 2010, led

Power-Sharing Agreement Remains / Elusive / Bosnia’s economy is recovering, aided by an improvement in external / demand, with a s

Post-Depression Recovery: Far From / Robust / T he Latvian economy may have emerged from its three-year / depression, but the rele

Ramping Up For The Boom Years / We retain our bullish outlook on Mongolia’s long-term prospects, / with rising investment and surg

Fiscal Position Tarnishes Rosy / Outlook / With Poland’s Central Statistical Office releasing a preliminary estimate / of 2010 rea

Recovery Firmly On Course / T he Russian recovery will continue to strengthen through 2011, with / the economy forecast to expand

Growth Set To Strengthen / With greater macroeconomic stability returning to the Balkan region / over the course of 2010, we see e

Economy To Outperform Eurozone / Growth Over Medium Term / In this Q211 Slovakia Business Forecast we caution that 2011 will / be

Expect Lower Growth Over Long Term / A weak economic recovery, continuation of tight credit markets and / high unemployment sugges

The Fallout From Fiscal Austerity / I n our Q2 2011 Spain Business Forecast we highlight the downside / risks to Spain’s medium-te

No Easy Way Back From Recession / A lthough most East Caribbean economies will exit recession in / 2011, the region remains mired

Structural Problems Emerging / I n our last Business Forecast Report, we argued that the extent of / challenges facing Trinidad &

Hope For Some, Not For Others / I n the West Caribbean Business Forecast Report Q211, we consider / which economies are best-place

A Pivotal Moment / History In The Making / The wave of popular protests that has swept across the / Middle East and North Africa (

Applying The Brakes / A fter finishing 2010 on a strong note, economic policy priorities in China will increasingly shift towards

Moderation In Growth / Malaysia’s real GDP growth came in at a respectable 5.3% year-onyear (y-o-y) in Q310, which was slower tha

Growing Risks To An Attractive Story / T he forceful nature of Indian economic growth has dominated the headlines in recent month

Improving Outlook / We believe Hong Kong ended 2010 on a strong note and the solid momentum should have a positive spillover effe

Political Turmoil Holding Back Recovery / E arlier in January, the ruling government in Pakistan headed by the Pakistan People’s

More Upbeat For 2011 And 2012 / We have become more optimistic about the Philippine economy in 2011 on the back of recent upgrade

Elections in 2011 To Shape Political Outlook / T he general election outcome in 2011 is expected to set the tone for Thailand’s e

EU Membership / A lthough Prime Minister Sali Berisha’s government will now be under even more scrutiny from both the public and

Outlook To Remain Subdued / Bulgaria has slowly returned to positive economic growth as surging exports have driven an economic r

Motoring On / We expect robust growth in all three Caucasus states over the next five years, with real GDP expected to expand by

Weak Growth In 2011 / We maintain our view that 2011 will see a return to positive real GDP growth for Croatia, driven largely by

Inflation Rears Its Ugly Head Again / I nflation is likely to be a major theme in 2011, both in a global and country-specific con

Euro Entry: A Start, But No Panacea / T his will be a year of continued recovery for Estonia, with real GDP growth accelerating t

Lining Up For Another Strong Year / Germany has entered 2011 on a strong note, with the economy continuing to fire on all cylinde

Power Consolidation To Remain On The Agenda / T he Q2 2011 Hungary Business Forecast Report paints a fairly lacklustre picture fo

Steady Economic Expansion To Continue / We maintain our relatively upbeat take on Switzerland’s economic outlook, with the Q310 G

Recovery Still Fragile / D espite a mixed start to 2011, we believe that the UK economy is on course to post stronger growth this

The Challenge Of Maintaining Growth / A fter a barnstorming 2010, the challenge for Brazil in 2011 will be to turn this strength

From Good To Better / T he Q2 2011 Chile Business Forecast Report highlights our increasingly positive outlook for the country’s

Outlook Brighter… For Now / Mexico’s medium-term economic outlook has brightened somewhat since our last Mexico Business Forecast

A Brighter Economic Outlook In 2011 / T he US economy is finally showing signs of a stronger recovery. We believe that the expans

Supporting The Economic Resurgence / R ecent months have demonstrated that Botswana’s economic recovery is in full swing, with st

Gbagbo For Life? / T he November 2010 presidential elections in Côte d’Ivoire have been a disaster, achieving the opposite of the

Subsidy Cuts And Sanctions Weigh On Growth / T he commencement of subsidy cuts in December 2010 will add to the weight of interna

Consumption, Finance And Infrastructure Hold The Keys For Kenya / Kenya shares many of the same challenges and opportunities with

Government Spending Crucial For Growth / BMI’s positive outlook for oil prices in 2011 underpins our sanguine outlook on Kuwait’s

The Road To Elections / A s the African growth story gains greater prominence among international investors, few other countries

A Consumer-Led Recovery / T he South African economy continued its somewhat subdued recovery in Q310, growing by 2.6% quarter-on-

Birth of A New Nation? / S udan has reached a crossroads. During 2011, the country will likely split into two entities, with the