This latest Mexico Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 24.43% of Latin America regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 21.86% of supply. Latin American regional use averaged an estimated 8.41mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010. It should rise to 8.63mn b/d in 2011 and reach 9.30mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production in 2010 averaged an estimated 9.92mn b/d. It is set to rise to 12.47mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports have been slipping, because demand growth has exceeded the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.24mn b/d. This total fell to an estimated 1.52mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to rebound to 3.17mn b/d in 2015. The principal exporters will be Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia and Brazil.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 consumed an estimated 189.5bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 230.8bcm targeted for 2015. Production of an estimated 203bcm in 2010 should reach 254bcm in 2015, and implies more than 20bcm of net exports at the end of the period. Mexico consumed an estimated 33.08% of the region’s gas in 2010, with its market share for 2015 forecast at 29.47%. In 2010, the country produced an estimated 25.32% of the region’s gas and is expected to contribute 21.07% by 2015.
The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45 per barrel (bbl) for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34/bbl and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year.
Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.6%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in the eurozone should be marginally higher than 2010, while Chinese and US economic expansion will slow and Japan’s growth will slump to 0.7% as a result of the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. BMI calculates Mexican real GDP increased by 5.5% in 2010, with average annual growth of 3.2% forecast for 2010- 2015.
Unless the government introduces a radical shift in energy policy, we expect state-owned Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) to retain full responsibility for oil production, without international oil company (IOC) involvement. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than around 2.7mn b/d by 2015, with the country pumping an estimated 2.95mn b/d in 2010. Beyond the weakness of 2009, consumption is forecast to increase by no more than 1.5% per annum to 2015, implying demand of 2.3mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. The net export capability would therefore be approximately 450,000b/d by 2015. Gas production is forecast to increase from an estimated 51.4bcm in 2010 to 53.5bcm over the period, with 14.5bcm of net imports required by 2015.
Between 2010 and 2020, we forecast a decline in Mexican oil production, with crude volumes falling steadily to 2.29mn b/d in 2020. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 11%, with growth slowing to an assumed 1% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 2.39mn b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise gradually, from an estimated 51.4bcm in 2010 to 61bcm in 2020. With demand growth of 55%, this implies a need for imports to rise from an estimated 11.5bcm to 15.4bcm between 2010 and 2020. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Mexico holds eighth place, behind Ecuador, in BMI’s composite Business Environment Ratings (BERs), which combine upstream and downstream scores. The country now shares ninth and last place with Chile in BMI’s updated upstream ratings, in spite of its vast hydrocarbons resource base. It lags well behind Bolivia and Ecuador, so is unlikely to move further up the league table over the short term. Although the absolute resource base may be large, the output growth outlook is poor, reserves-to-production ratios (RPR) are low, state ownership of oil assets is absolute and country risk is relatively high. Mexico ranks equal fifth with Trinidad in BMI’s downstream ratings, reflecting its high levels of oil and gas consumption, refining capacity and moderate country risk, plus low levels of forecast oil and gas demand growth. Chile is six points behind and unlikely to mount a near-term challenge.
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Executive Summary 7
SWOT Analysis 9
Mexico Political SWOT 9
Mexico Economic SWOT 9
Mexico Business Environment SWOT 10
Mexico Energy Market Overview 11
Regional Energy Market Overview 14
Oil Supply And Demand 14
Table: Latin America Oil Consumption (000b/d) 15
Table: Latin America Oil Production (000b/d) 16
Oil: Downstream 17
Table: Latin America Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) 17
Gas Supply And Demand 18
Table: Latin America Gas Consumption (bcm) 18
Table: Latin America Gas Production (bcm) 18
Liquefied Natural Gas. 19
Table: Latin America LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) 19
Business Environment Ratings 20
Latin America Region 20
Composite Scores 20
Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating 20
Upstream Scores 21
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating 21
Mexico Upstream Rating – Overview 22
Mexico Upstream Rating – Rewards 22
Mexico Upstream Rating – Risks 22
Downstream Scores 23
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating 23
Mexico Downstream Rating – Overview 24
Mexico Downstream Rating – Rewards 24
Mexico Downstream Rating – Risks 24
Business Environment 25
Legal Framework 25
Infrastructure 26
Labour Force 27
Foreign Investment Policy 27
Tax Regime 28
Security Risk 29
Industry Forecast Scenario 30
Oil And Gas Reserves 30
Oil Supply And Demand 30
Gas Supply And Demand 31
LNG 33
Refining And Oil Products Trade 33
Revenues/Import Costs 34
Table: Mexico Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts 35
Other Energy 36
Table: Mexico Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts 39
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario 39
Long-Term Energy Outlook 39
Oil and Gas Infrastructure 40
Oil Refineries 40
Table: Refineries In Mexico 40
Service Stations 42
Oil Storage Facilities 42
Oil Terminals/Ports 42
Oil Pipelines 43
LNG Terminals 43
Table: LNG Import Terminals In Mexico 44
Gas Pipelines 45
Macroeconomic Outlook 47
Table: Mexico - Economic Activity, 2006-2015 48
Competitive Landscape 49
Executive Summary 49
Table: Key Energy Player 49
Overview/State Role 50
Licensing and Regulation 50
Government Policy 52
International Energy Relations 54
Table: Upstream Players 54
Table: Downstream Players 54
Company Monitor 55
Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) 55
Repsol YPF Mexico 61
Shell – Summary 64
Chevron – Summary 64
Petróleo Brasileiro – Summary 64
Total – Summary 64
Sinopec – Summary 65
Others – Summary 65
Service Companies 65
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts 67
Regional Oil Demand 67
Table: Latin America Oil Consumption (000b/d) 67
Regional Oil Supply 68
Table: Latin America Oil Production (000b/d) 68
Regional Refining Capacity 69
Table: Latin America Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) 69
Regional Gas Demand 70
Table: Latin America Gas Consumption (bcm) 70
Regional Gas Supply 71
Table: Latin America Gas Production (bcm) 71
Mexico Country Overview 71
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 72
Glossary Of Terms 73
Oil And Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology 74
Introduction 74
Ratings Overview 74
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure 75
Indicators 76
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology 76
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology 77
BMI Methodology 79
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 79
Energy Industry 79
Cross Checks 80
Sources 80
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