Shaky Start To 2011 Data released by Secretaría de Turismo (the Ministry of Tourism, Sectur) in May 2011 showed that the year began slowly, with arrivals growing by only 1.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) in January. Tourist arrivals totalled 1.96mn in that month, up from 1.32mn in the same month the previous year. Interestingly, the frequency of tourism data releases has slowed, with data for February onwards still not having been released by mid-2011. This suggests that the rate of tourism arrivals has remained weak, potentially falling back below the 4.4% y-o-y growth seen in full-year 2010.
There are significant factors that could be undermining the tourism sector in Mexico. Primarily, the ongoing drug-related violence continues to act as a major disincentive to tourism, particularly in the violent border areas with the US. Moreover, increasing violence in the tourist destinations of Acapulco and Cancún may have deterred tourists from outside the region from booking beach and package holidays. At the same time, the slow economic recovery in the US is weighing on tourists to Mexico, particularly the potential for short breaks. BMI will wait for more data to be released before reassessing current 2011 arrivals forecasts, which predict a further decline in 2011.
Focus On Jalisco
The central western state of Jalisco is one of Mexico’s most populated areas and boasts a wide variety of tourist attractions. These range from the attractive city of Guadalajara to beach resorts on the state’s western coast. Jalisco’s central position and Pacific beaches make it a popular location for both international and domestic visitors. While Guadalajara has experienced rising crime rates in recent years, in line with many other Mexican cities, the major tourist destinations and coastal areas have remained relatively peaceful, allowing Jalisco to continue building up its position as one of Mexico’ emerging tourist destinations.
AeroMexico Booms In Q1 Leading Mexican airline AeroMexico announced extremely positive results in Q111, marking its best first quarter in 15 years. The airline’s revenues rose by a stellar 40% y-o-y, which was all the more impressive as tourist arrivals themselves remained sluggish. AeroMexico has benefited from the collapse in 2010 of its main rival Mexicana, whose operations remain grounded pending an increasingly unlikely looking rescue bid. AeroMexico moved swiftly to take over many of Mexicana’s routes and has decided to launch a major expansion plan to consolidate this new market share. The company plans to invest US$1.3bn by 2013, with the bulk of this funding directed towards expanding its fleet of aircraft.

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Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Mexico Tourism SWOT .. 6
Mexico Political SWOT.. 6
Mexico Economic SWOT .. 7
Mexico Business Environment SWOT . 7
Industry Forecast Scenario .. 8
Arrivals . 9
Table: Arrivals Data, 2007-2015 .. 9
Accommodation . 10
Table: Accommodation Data, 2007-2015 .. 10
Expenditure .. 11
Table: Tourist Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2007-2015 11
Focus: Jalisco .. 11
Inbound Tourism 12
Table: Arrival Of Tourists At National Borders, 2007-2015 . 12
Outbound Tourism 13
Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2007-2015 (‘000, unless stated) .. 13
Market Overview – Travel 14
Commercial Airlines 14
Low-Cost Airlines .. 15
Cruises 17
Global Oil Products Price Outlook .. 17
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q410-Q411 (US$/bbl) 18
Table: Oil Product Price Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 (US$/bbl) .. 21
H1N1 Update .. 23
Market Overview – Hospitality . 24
Accommodation . 24
Business Environment Outlook .. 27
Latin America Tourism Business Environment Ratings . 27
Table: Latin America Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings. 27
BMI’s Security Ratings .. 28
Table: Latin America Security Ratings 28
Table: Latin America State Vulnerability To Terrorism Ratings. 28
Mexico’s Security Risk Ratings 29
City Terrorism Ratings .. 31
Table: BMI Americas City Terrorism Index .. 32
Latin America Security Overview . 33
Latin America In A Global Context 33
Challenges And Threats To Security . 34
Global Assumptions, Q311 47
Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015 .. 47
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 48
Table: Selected Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average) .. 48
Developed States 49
Table: Developed States’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) . 49
Emerging Markets. 50
Table: Emerging Markets’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) .. 51
Consensus Forecasts 52
Table: Bloomberg Consensus GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2012 (% change y-o-y) .. 52
Company Profiles 53
Aeroméxico 53
Grupo Posadas 55
Mexicana de Aviación .. 56
Sol Meliá . 58
BMI Methodology 59
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .. 59
Tourism Industry . 59
Tourism Ratings – Methodology . 60
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators . 61
Table: Weighting Of Components .. 62
City Terrorism Ratings .. 62
Table: City Terrorism Rating Methodology .. 64
Sources .. 64
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