OVERVIEW 1
Catalyst 1
Summary 1
Table of Contents 2
LIST OF FIGURES 3
LIST OF TABLES 4
INTRODUCTION 5
Reasons to purchase 5
MOBILE MARKET - ANALYSIS OF REVENUE AND CONNECTIONS TO 2014 12
Overview 12
Mobile market - analysis of connections to 2014 14
Mobile market technologies 16
Mobile market - analysis of revenues to 2014 24
Revenue by data 26
Revenue by voice 28
Likely market scenario: mobile forecast 30
WIRELESS CONTENT FORECASTS TO 2014 31
Wireless content analysis to 2014 31
Analysis of personalization in the mobile market 34
Analysis of games in the mobile market 36
Analysis of music in the mobile market 38
Analysis of TV/video in the mobile market 40
Likely market scenarios: wireless content forecasts 42
Market scenarios 2009-10 42
Operator strategy 42
Personalization 42
Games 42
Music 42
Mobile TV and video 42
Other 42
Market scenarios for developed market 2011-14 43
Operator strategy 43
Personalization 43
Games 43
Music 43
Mobile TV and video 43
Other 43
MOBILE MESSAGING FORECASTS TO 2014 44
Mobile messaging analysis to 2014 44
Analysis of messaging traffic to 2014 46
Analysis of messaging revenues to 2014 48
Likely market scenarios: messaging forecasts 50
Market scenarios: SMS (2008-09) 50
Market scenarios: SMS (2010-14) 50
Market scenarios: MMS (picture and video) (2008-09) 50
Market scenarios: MMS (picture and video) (2010-14) 50
APPENDIX 51
Forecast methodology 51
Further reading 56
Disclaimer 56
List of Tables
Table 1: Mobile market definitions 6
Table 2: Wireless content definitions 9
Table 3: Mobile messaging definitions 10
Table 4: Mobile market, US, revenues ($m) and connections (000s), 2008-14 13
Table 5: Mobile market, US, connections (000s), penetration (%) and prepaid connections (000s), 2008-14 15
Table 6: Mobile market, US, connections (000s) split by key technologies (3GPP, 3GPP2 and Mobile WIMAX), 2008-14 17
Table 7: 3GPP connections, US, split by 3GPP family, (000s), 2008-14 19
Table 8: 3GPP2 connections, US, split by 3GPP2 family, (000s), 2008-14 22
Table 9: Mobile market, US, revenues ($m) and annual ARPU ($), 2008-14 25
Table 10: Data connections, US, revenue ($m) and annual ARPU ($), 2008-14 27
Table 11: Voice connections, US, revenue ($m) and annual ARPU ($), 2008-14 29
Table 12: Wireless content analysis, US, connections (000s) and revenues ($m), 2008-14 32
Table 13: Wireless content analysis, US, personalization connections (000s) and revenues ($m), 2008-14 35
Table 14: Wireless content analysis, US, games connections (000s) and revenues ($m), 2008-14 37
Table 15: Wireless content analysis, US, music connections (000s) and revenues ($m), 2008-14 39
Table 16: Wireless content analysis, US, TV/video connections (000s) and revenues ($m), 2008-14 41
Table 17: Mobile messaging market, US, traffic (m) and revenues ($m), 2008-14 45
Table 18: Mobile messaging traffic (m), US, 2008-14 47
Table 19: Mobile messaging revenues ($m), US, 2008-14 49
Table 20: Forecast process: mobile 51
Table 21: Forecast process: wireless content revenues 53
Table 22: Research parameters: basic text and multimedia messaging 54
List of Figures
Figure 1: Mobile market, US, revenues ($m) and connections (000s), 2008-14 12
Figure 2: Mobile market, US, connections (000s) and prepaid connections (000s), 2008-14 14
Figure 3: Mobile market, US, connections (000s) split by 3GPP and 3GPP2 technologies, 2008-14 16
Figure 4: 3GPP connections, US, split by 3GPP family, (000s), 2008-14 18
Figure 5: 3GPP connections, US, split by 3GPP family, (%), 2014 20
Figure 6: 3GPP2 connections, US, split by 3GPP2 family, (000s), 2008-14 21
Figure 7: 3GPP2 connections, US, split by 3GPP2 family, (%), 2014 23
Figure 8: Mobile market, US, revenues ($m) and annual ARPU ($), 2008-14 24
Figure 9: Data connections, US, revenue ($m) and annual ARPU ($), 2008-14 26
Figure 10: Voice connections, US, revenue ($m) and annual ARPU ($), 2008-14 28
Figure 11: Wireless content analysis, US, connections (000s) and revenues ($m), 2008-14 31
Figure 12: Wireless content analysis, US, connections and revenues, (%), 2014 33
Figure 13: Wireless content analysis, US, personalization connections (000s) and revenues ($m), 2008-14 34
Figure 14: Wireless content analysis, US, games connections (000s) and revenues ($m), 2008-14 36
Figure 15: Wireless content analysis, US, music connections (000s) and revenues ($m), 2008-14 38
Figure 16: Wireless content analysis, US, TV/video connections (000s) and revenues ($m), 2008-14 40
Figure 17: Mobile messaging market, US, traffic (m) and revenues ($m), 2008-14 44
Figure 18: Mobile messaging traffic (m), US, 2008-14 46
Figure 19: Mobile messaging revenues ($m), US, 2008-14 48
Figure 20: Flowchart of forecast model: mobile 52
Figure 21: Flowchart of forecast model: wireless content 53
Figure 22: Messaging model logic flowchart 55
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