OVERVIEW 1
Catalyst 1
Summary 1
Table of Contents 2
LIST OF FIGURES 3
LIST OF TABLES 4
INTRODUCTION 5
Reasons to purchase 5
MOBILE MARKET - ANALYSIS OF REVENUE AND CONNECTIONS TO 2014 11
Overview 11
Mobile market - analysis of connections to 2014 13
Mobile market technologies 15
Mobile market - analysis of revenues to 2014 23
Revenue by data 25
Revenue by voice 27
Likely market scenario: mobile forecast 29
WIRELESS CONTENT FORECASTS TO 2014 30
Wireless content analysis to 2014 30
Analysis of personalization in the mobile market 33
Analysis of games in the mobile market 35
Analysis of music in the mobile market 37
Analysis of TV/video in the mobile market 39
Likely market scenarios: wireless content forecasts 41
Operator strategy 41
Personalization 41
Games 41
Music 41
Mobile TV and video 41
Other 41
Market scenarios 2011-14 42
Operator strategy 42
Personalization 42
Games 42
Music 42
Mobile TV and video 42
Other 42
MOBILE MESSAGING FORECASTS TO 2014 43
Mobile messaging analysis to 2014 43
Analysis of messaging traffic to 2014 45
Analysis of messaging revenues to 2014 46
Likely market scenarios: messaging forecasts 48
Market scenarios: SMS (2008-09) 48
Market scenarios: SMS (2010-14) 48
Market scenarios: MMS (picture and video) (2008-09) 48
Market scenarios: MMS (picture and video) (2010-14) 48
APPENDIX 49
Forecast methodology 49
Further reading 54
Disclaimer 54
List of Tables
Table 1: Mobile market definitions 6
Table 2: Wireless content definitions 9
Table 3: Mobile messaging definitions 10
Table 4: Mobile market, Indonesia, revenues ($m) and connections (000s), 2008-14 12
Table 5: Mobile market, Indonesia, connections (000s), penetration (%) and prepaid connections (000s), 2008-14 14
Table 6: Mobile market, Indonesia, connections (000s) split by key technologies (3GPP, 3GPP2 and Mobile WIMAX), 2008-14 16
Table 7: 3GPP connections, Indonesia, split by 3GPP family, (000s), 2008-14 18
Table 8: 3GPP2 connections, Indonesia, split by 3GPP2 family, (000s), 2008-14 21
Table 9: Mobile market, Indonesia, revenues ($m) and annual ARPU ($), 2008-14 24
Table 10: Data connections, Indonesia, revenue ($m) and annual ARPU ($), 2008-14 26
Table 11: Voice connections, Indonesia, revenue ($m) and annual ARPU ($), 2008-14 28
Table 12: Wireless content analysis, Indonesia, connections (000s) and revenues ($m), 2008-14 31
Table 13: Wireless content analysis, Indonesia, personalization connections (000s) and revenues ($m), 2008-14 34
Table 14: Wireless content analysis, Indonesia, games connections (000s) and revenues ($m), 2008-14 36
Table 15: Wireless content analysis, Indonesia, music connections (000s) and revenues ($m), 2008-14 38
Table 16: Wireless content analysis, Indonesia, TV/video connections (000s) and revenues ($m), 2008-14 40
Table 17: Mobile messaging market, Indonesia, traffic (m) and revenues ($m), 2008-14 44
Table 18: Mobile messaging traffic (m), Indonesia, 2008-14 45
Table 19: Mobile messaging revenues ($m), Indonesia, 2008-14 47
Table 20: Forecast process: mobile 49
Table 21: Forecast process: wireless content revenues 51
Table 22: Research parameters: basic text and multimedia messaging 52
List of Figures
Figure 1: Mobile market, Indonesia, revenues ($m) and connections (000s), 2008-14 11
Figure 2: Mobile market, Indonesia, connections (000s) and prepaid connections (000s), 2008-14 13
Figure 3: Mobile market, Indonesia, connections (000s) split by 3GPP and 3GPP2 technologies, 2008-14 15
Figure 4: 3GPP connections, Indonesia, split by 3GPP family, (000s), 2008-14 17
Figure 5: 3GPP connections, Indonesia, split by 3GPP family, (%), 2014 19
Figure 6: 3GPP2 connections, Indonesia, split by 3GPP2 family, (000s), 2008-14 20
Figure 7: 3GPP2 connections, Indonesia, split by 3GPP2 family, (%), 2014 22
Figure 8: Mobile market, Indonesia, revenues ($m) and annual ARPU ($), 2008-14 23
Figure 9: Data connections, Indonesia, revenue ($m) and annual ARPU ($), 2008-14 25
Figure 10: Voice connections, Indonesia, revenue ($m) and annual ARPU ($), 2008-14 27
Figure 11: Wireless content analysis, Indonesia, connections (000s) and revenues ($m), 2008-14 30
Figure 12: Wireless content analysis, Indonesia, connections and revenues, (%), 2014 32
Figure 13: Wireless content analysis, Indonesia, personalization connections (000s) and revenues ($m), 2008-14 33
Figure 14: Wireless content analysis, Indonesia, games connections (000s) and revenues ($m), 2008-14 35
Figure 15: Wireless content analysis, Indonesia, music connections (000s) and revenues ($m), 2008-14 37
Figure 16: Wireless content analysis, Indonesia, TV/video connections (000s) and revenues ($m), 2008-14 39
Figure 17: Mobile messaging market, Indonesia, traffic (m) and revenues ($m), 2008-14 43
Figure 18: Mobile messaging revenues ($m), Indonesia, 2008-14 46
Figure 19: Flowchart of forecast model: mobile 50
Figure 20: Flowchart of forecast model: wireless content 51
Figure 21: Messaging model logic flowchart 53
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