OVERVIEW 1
Catalyst 1
Summary 1
Table of Contents 2
LIST OF FIGURES 3
LIST OF TABLES 4
INTRODUCTION 5
Reasons to purchase 5
MOBILE MARKET - ANALYSIS OF REVENUE AND CONNECTIONS TO 2014 11
Overview 11
Mobile market - analysis of connections to 2014 13
Mobile market technologies 15
Mobile market - analysis of revenues to 2014 21
Revenue by data 23
Revenue by voice 25
Likely market scenario: mobile forecast 27
WIRELESS CONTENT FORECASTS TO 2014 28
Wireless content analysis to 2014 28
Analysis of personalization in the mobile market 31
Analysis of games in the mobile market 33
Analysis of music in the mobile market 35
Analysis of TV/video in the mobile market 37
Likely market scenarios: wireless content forecasts 39
Market scenarios 2009-10 39
Operator strategy 39
Personalization 39
Games 39
Music 39
Mobile TV and video 39
Other 39
Market scenarios 2011-14 40
Operator strategy 40
Personalization 40
Games 40
Music 40
Mobile TV and video 40
Other 40
MOBILE MESSAGING FORECASTS TO 2014 41
Mobile messaging analysis to 2014 41
Analysis of messaging traffic to 2014 43
Analysis of messaging revenues to 2014 45
Likely market scenarios: messaging forecasts 47
Market scenarios: SMS (2008-09) 47
Market scenarios: SMS (2010-14) 47
Market scenarios: MMS (picture and video) (2008-09) 47
Market scenarios: MMS (picture and video) (2010-14) 47
APPENDIX 48
Forecast methodology 48
Further reading 53
Disclaimer 53
List of Tables
Table 1: Mobile market definitions 6
Table 2: Wireless content definitions 9
Table 3: Mobile messaging definitions 10
Table 4: Mobile market, Norway, revenues ($m) and connections (000s), 2008-14 12
Table 5: Mobile market, Norway, connections (000s), penetration (%) and prepaid connections (000s), 2008-14 14
Table 6: Mobile market, Norway, connections (000s) split by key technologies (3GPP, 3GPP2 and Mobile WIMAX), 2008-14 15
Table 7: 3GPP connections, Norway, split by 3GPP family, (000s), 2008-14 17
Table 8: 3GPP2 connections, Norway, split by 3GPP2 family, (000s), 2008-14 19
Table 9: Mobile market, Norway, revenues ($m) and annual ARPU ($), 2008-14 22
Table 10: Data connections, Norway, revenue ($m) and annual ARPU ($), 2008-14 24
Table 11: Voice connections, Norway, revenue ($m) and annual ARPU ($), 2008-14 26
Table 12: Wireless content analysis, Norway, connections (000s) and revenues ($m), 2008-14 29
Table 13: Wireless content analysis, Norway, personalization connections (000s) and revenues ($m), 2008-14 32
Table 14: Wireless content analysis, Norway, games connections (000s) and revenues ($m), 2008-14 34
Table 15: Wireless content analysis, Norway, music connections (000s) and revenues ($m), 2008-14 36
Table 16: Wireless content analysis, Norway, TV/video connections (000s) and revenues ($m), 2008-14 38
Table 17: Mobile messaging market, Norway, traffic (m) and revenues ($m), 2008-14 42
Table 18: Mobile messaging traffic (m), Norway, 2008-14 44
Table 19: Mobile messaging revenues ($m), Norway, 2008-14 46
Table 20: Forecast process: mobile 48
Table 21: Forecast process: wireless content revenues 50
Table 22: Research parameters: basic text and multimedia messaging 51
List of Figures
Figure 1: Mobile market, Norway, revenues ($m) and connections (000s), 2008-14 11
Figure 2: Mobile market, Norway, connections (000s) and prepaid connections (000s), 2008-14 13
Figure 3: 3GPP connections, Norway, split by 3GPP family, (000s), 2008-14 16
Figure 4: 3GPP connections, Norway, split by 3GPP family, (%), 2014 18
Figure 5: 3GPP2 connections, Norway, split by 3GPP2 family, (%), 2014 20
Figure 6: Mobile market, Norway, revenues ($m) and annual ARPU ($), 2008-14 21
Figure 7: Data connections, Norway, revenue ($m) and annual ARPU ($), 2008-14 23
Figure 8: Voice connections, Norway, revenue ($m) and annual ARPU ($), 2008-14 25
Figure 9: Wireless content analysis, Norway, connections (000s) and revenues ($m), 2008-14 28
Figure 10: Wireless content analysis, Norway, connections and revenues, (%), 2014 30
Figure 11: Wireless content analysis, Norway, personalization connections (000s) and revenues ($m), 2008-14 31
Figure 12: Wireless content analysis, Norway, games connections (000s) and revenues ($m), 2008-14 33
Figure 13: Wireless content analysis, Norway, music connections (000s) and revenues ($m), 2008-14 35
Figure 14: Wireless content analysis, Norway, TV/video connections (000s) and revenues ($m), 2008-14 37
Figure 15: Mobile messaging market, Norway, traffic (m) and revenues ($m), 2008-14 41
Figure 16: Mobile messaging traffic (m), Norway, 2008-14 43
Figure 17: Mobile messaging revenues ($m), Norway, 2008-14 45
Figure 18: Flowchart of forecast model: mobile 49
Figure 19: Flowchart of forecast model: wireless content 50
Figure 20: Messaging model logic flowchart 52
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