OVERVIEW 1
Catalyst 1
Summary 1
Table of Contents 2
LIST OF FIGURES 3
LIST OF TABLES 4
INTRODUCTION 5
Reasons to purchase 5
MOBILE MARKET - ANALYSIS OF REVENUE AND CONNECTIONS TO 2014 11
Overview 11
Mobile market - analysis of connections to 2014 13
Mobile market technologies 15
Mobile market - analysis of revenues to 2014 22
Revenue by data 24
Revenue by voice 26
Likely market scenario: mobile forecast 28
WIRELESS CONTENT FORECASTS TO 2014 29
Wireless content analysis to 2014 29
Analysis of personalization in the mobile market 32
Analysis of games in the mobile market 34
Analysis of music in the mobile market 36
Analysis of TV/video in the mobile market 38
Wireless content market likely scenario: Asia-Pacific 40
Market scenarios 2009-10 40
Operator strategy 40
Personalization 40
Games 40
Music 40
Mobile TV and video 40
Other 40
Market scenarios 2011-14 41
Operator strategy 41
Personalization 41
Games 41
Music 41
Mobile TV and video 41
Other 41
MOBILE MESSAGING FORECASTS TO 2014 42
Mobile messaging analysis to 2014 42
Analysis of messaging traffic to 2014 44
Analysis of messaging revenues to 2014 45
Likely market scenarios: messaging forecasts 47
Market scenarios: SMS (2008-09) 47
Market scenarios: SMS (2010-14) 47
Market scenarios: MMS (picture and video) (2008-09) 47
Market scenarios: MMS (picture and video) (2010-14) 47
APPENDIX 48
Forecast methodology 48
Further reading 53
Disclaimer 53
List of Tables
Table 1: Mobile market definitions 6
Table 2: Wireless content definitions 9
Table 3: Mobile messaging definitions 10
Table 4: Mobile market, New Zealand, revenues ($m) and connections (000s), 2008-14 12
Table 5: Mobile market, New Zealand, connections (000s), penetration (%) and prepaid connections (000s), 2008-14 14
Table 6: Mobile market, New Zealand, connections (000s) split by key technologies (3GPP, 3GPP2 and Mobile WIMAX), 2008-14 16
Table 7: 3GPP connections, New Zealand, split by 3GPP family, (000s), 2008-14 18
Table 8: 3GPP2 connections, New Zealand, split by 3GPP2 family, (000s), 2008-14 21
Table 9: Mobile market, New Zealand, revenues ($m) and annual ARPU ($), 2008-14 23
Table 10: Data connections, New Zealand, revenue ($m) and annual ARPU ($), 2008-14 25
Table 11: Voice connections, New Zealand, revenue ($m) and annual ARPU ($), 2008-14 27
Table 12: Wireless content analysis, New Zealand, connections (000s) and revenues ($m), 2008-14 30
Table 13: Wireless content analysis, New Zealand, personalization connections (000s) and revenues ($m), 2008-14 33
Table 14: Wireless content analysis, New Zealand, games connections (000s) and revenues ($m), 2008-14 35
Table 15: Wireless content analysis, New Zealand, music connections (000s) and revenues ($m), 2008-14 37
Table 16: Wireless content analysis, New Zealand, TV/video connections (000s) and revenues ($m), 2008-14 39
Table 17: Mobile messaging market, New Zealand, traffic (m) and revenues ($m), 2008-14 43
Table 18: Mobile messaging traffic (m), New Zealand, 2008-14 44
Table 19: Mobile messaging revenues ($m), New Zealand, 2008-14 46
Table 20: Forecast process: mobile 48
Table 21: Forecast process: wireless content revenues 50
Table 22: Research parameters: basic text and multimedia messaging 51
List of Figures
Figure 1: Mobile market, New Zealand, revenues ($m) and connections (000s), 2008-14 11
Figure 2: Mobile market, New Zealand, connections (000s) and prepaid connections (000s), 2008-14 13
Figure 3: Mobile market, New Zealand, connections (000s) split by 3GPP and 3GPP2 technologies, 2008-14 15
Figure 4: 3GPP connections, New Zealand, split by 3GPP family, (000s), 2008-14 17
Figure 5: 3GPP connections, New Zealand, split by 3GPP family, (%), 2014 19
Figure 6: 3GPP2 connections, New Zealand, split by 3GPP2 family, (000s), 2008-13 20
Figure 7: Mobile market, New Zealand, revenues ($m) and annual ARPU ($), 2008-14 22
Figure 8: Data connections, New Zealand, revenue ($m) and annual ARPU ($), 2008-14 24
Figure 9: Voice connections, New Zealand, revenue ($m) and annual ARPU ($), 2008-14 26
Figure 10: Wireless content analysis, New Zealand, connections (000s) and revenues ($m), 2008-14 29
Figure 11: Wireless content analysis, New Zealand, connections and revenues, (%), 2014 31
Figure 12: Wireless content analysis, New Zealand, personalization connections (000s) and revenues ($m), 2008-14 32
Figure 13: Wireless content analysis, New Zealand, games connections (000s) and revenues ($m), 2008-14 34
Figure 14: Wireless content analysis, New Zealand, music connections (000s) and revenues ($m), 2008-14 36
Figure 15: Wireless content analysis, New Zealand, TV/video connections (000s) and revenues ($m), 2008-14 38
Figure 16: Mobile messaging market, New Zealand, traffic (m) and revenues ($m), 2008-14 42
Figure 17: Mobile messaging revenues ($m), New Zealand, 2008-14 45
Figure 18: Flowchart of forecast model: mobile 49
Figure 19: Flowchart of forecast model: wireless content 50
Figure 20: Messaging model logic flowchart 52
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