Mortgages in Poland 2007 (Market Guide)

As well as the recent greater economic success of Poland and lower borrowing costs, awareness of mortgage loans has been one of the main contributors to the growth in new mortgage lending in the Polish market. What are the current issues facing the this sector? Who are the biggest lenders? What will be the size of the Polish mortgage market in the next five years? This report provides the answers.



Report Highlights
The mortgage market in Poland is relatively small compared to western European mortgage markets, but it has expanded rapidly due to strong demand for mortgages. The Polish market is witnessing strong demand from both nationals and foreign investors. Indeed, a buoyant economy, an increase in wages, lower borrowing costs and a shortage of properties are driving demand upward. After a subdued performance, house price growth in Poland has been relatively strong over the last couple of years—particularly in urban centers.


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Overview 1
Catalyst 1
Summary 1
Executive Summary 2
Market size 2
Market forecasts 3
Key issues 3
Key market players 4
Contents 5
Figures 6
Tables 7
Market Context 8
Country overview 8
Demographic and economic data of selected European countries 10
Demographic data 10
Economic data 11
Housing market 16
Dwelling stock 16
Age of dwelling 17
Percentage of dwellings in occupation 18
House prices 19
Government housing intervention 20
Housing subsidies 20
Local governments are responsible for housing allowances 21
Mortgage interest repayments are deductible from income tax 21
Interest rate caps for mortgages were introduced in 2002 21
The government is encouraging the automation of land and mortgage registrations 21
Market data 21
Mortgage interest rates 21
Market size 22
Balances outstanding 22
Net mortgage lending 24
Gross advances 25
Product lines 26
Market structure 26
Categories of banks 26
Commercial banks 27
Co-operative banks 27
Mortgage banks 28
Mortgage market structure 28
Market share by player type 28
Funding 28
Distribution 29
Regulatory environment 29
Industry regulators 29
The NBP 29
The CBS 30
The GINB 31
Industry associations 31
The Polish Bank Association 31
The Mortgage Credit Foundation 32
Credit bureaus 32
Regulatory issues and developments in the mortgage market 33
The birth of an integrated European mortgage market is still very far off 33
Basel II will mean a number of changes for lenders 33
Recent national mortgage-related legislation 34
Key issues in the mortgage market 35
Competitor and Product Overview 36
Top five mortgage lenders 36
Market share by balances outstanding 36
Product analysis 38
Typical product characteristics 38
Market Forecasts 39
Forecasting gross advances 39
Datamonitor forecasts a rapid rise in the Polish mortgage market 39
Future prospects 40
Market attractiveness 40
Market inhibitors 41
APPENDIX 42
Supplementary data 42
Data tables relating to Chapter 2: Market Context 42
Definitions 43
AAGR 43
Balances outstanding 43
CAGR 43
Fixed rate mortgage 44
Gross advances 44
Loan-to-value (LTV) 44
Mortgage intermediary 44
Remortgaging 44
Variable mortgage 44
Forecasting methodology 44
Research methodology 45
Further reading 45
European mortgages 45
Ask the analyst 46
Datamonitor consulting 46
Disclaimer 46

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Table 1: Forecast of mortgage gross advances in Poland, 2006-11f, (€m) 3
Table 2: Total population across European countries, 2002-06 10
Table 3: GDP at current rates across European countries, 2002-06, (€bn) 11
Table 4: GDP per capita at current rates across European countries, 2002-06, (€) 12
Table 5: GDP growth rates across European countries, 2002-06, (%) 13
Table 6: GDP composition by sector across European countries, 2006, (%) 14
Table 7: Inflation across European countries, 2002-06, (%) 15
Table 8: Unemployment rates across European countries, 2002-06, (%) 16
Table 9: Age of Poland's dwelling stock, 2002 18
Table 10: Residential mortgage balances outstanding compared to GDP of selected European countries, 2006 24
Table 11: Market share by competitor in the Polish residential mortgage market, 2005-06, (€m) 37
Table 12: Forecast of mortgage gross advances in Poland, 2006-11f, (€m) 40
Table 13: Number of dwellings in Poland, 2001-05 42
Table 14: Average annual house price growth in Poland, Q3 2004-Q4 2006 42
Table 15: Typical mortgage interest rate and reference rate in Poland, Q3 2004-Q4 2006 42
Table 16: Mortgage balances outstanding in the Polish mortgage market, 2002-06, (€m) 43
Table 17: Mortgage net lending in the Polish mortgage market, 2003-06, (€m) 43
Table 18: Mortgage gross advances in the Polish mortgage market, 2003e-06, (€m) 43


Figure 1: New mortgage lending in Poland has grown strongly but sporadically, 2003-06 2
Figure 2: PKO has the largest market share of the mortgage market in Poland, 2005-06 4
Figure 3: A snapshot of key statistics in Poland, 2006 9
Figure 4: Poland's dwelling stock stood at 12.9 million at the end of 2005 17
Figure 5: The majority of dwellings in Poland are owner-occupied, 2004 19
Figure 6: Quarterly house price growth in Poland shows in the most part strong growth, Q3 2004-Q4 2006 20
Figure 7: Typical mortgage interest rates in Poland have leveled off after falling rapidly , Q3 2004-Q4 2006 22
Figure 8: Mortgage balances outstanding in Poland have seen strong growth in the last five years 23
Figure 9: Net lending in Poland grew by a CAGR of 80.1% from 2003-06 25
Figure 10: New lending of mortgages in Poland has grown strongly, but sporadically, 2003-06 26
Figure 11: Categories of banks in the Polish banking industry, 2007 27
Figure 12: PKO has the largest market share of the mortgage market in Poland, 2005-06 36
Figure 13: Mortgage gross advances in Poland are predicted to rise rapidly, 2006-11f 40

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