Core Views:
We forecast real GDP growth of 4.5% driven by a strong recovery in the mining and construction sectors. I ncrease of private investment into mining sector. Political stability to remain unchanged.
Major Forecast Changes:
We have revised up our 2011 annual inflation average forecast to 5.2% year-on-year from 5.0% on account of rising global commodity prices. Interest rates are also expected to rise in 2011, with the Bank of Namibia expected to raise the rate to 6.50% from 6.00% by year-end.
Key Risks To Outlook:
Upside Risks: Rising commodity prices likely to push mining output higher and increase export earnings.
Short-Term Downside Risks To 2011 Growth: The appreciation of the Namibia Dollar against major currencies is a cause for concern mainly for exporters.
Long-Term Downside Risks: A potential slowdown in China or an escalation of European debt problems debt would dampen global demand for Namibian exports.
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Executive Summary 5
Core Views 5
Major Forecast Changes 5
Key Risks To Outlook 5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Political Risk Ratings 7
Domestic Politics 8
Stability To Continue Unperturbed
We forecast continued political stability in Namibia over the next decade, with the ruling South West Africa
People’s Organization party remaining in power after 2014 elections
Long-Term Political Outlook 9
Stability Likely To Prevail Over The Coming Decade
While Namibia’s enormous income inequality poses some risks to political stability, we believe the population
is likely to continue supporting the South West Africa People’s Organization government for the next 10 years,
ensuring broad political stability and continuity
TABLE: Namibia Political Ov erview 10
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook 13
SWOT Analysis 13
BMI Economic Risk Ratings 13
Economic Activity 14
Mining To Lead Recovery In Growth
We forecast real economic growth in Namibia to be 45% in 2011, driven by a strong resurgence in the mining
and construction sectors This could, however, be dampened if the recovery in Europe wanes
TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY 14
Monetary Policy 15
Interest Rates Kept Steady To Sustain Growth, But Concern Over Inflation
The Bank of Namibia is keeping interest rates unchanged to avoid choking off resurging economic growth
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY 15
Balance Of Payments 16
Exports To Increase, But SACU Receipts To Decline
Namibia’s current account deficit will continue to widen in 2011
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT 17
Regional Outlook 18
SSA Economic Outlook For 2011: Strong Growth, Higher Inflation
Sub-Saharan Africa is poised for strong growth in 2011, with our regional forecast standing at 52%
TABLE: Sub-Saharan Af rica: Policy Interest Rates 18
TABLE: Real GDP Growth, % 19
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast 21
The Namibian Economy To 2020 21
Robust Growth Expected To 2020
Thanks to the country’s strong primary sector, we expect growth to prove robust in the long run, averaging around
50% annually over 2011 to 2020
TABLE: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts 21
Chapter 4: Business Environment 23
SWOT Analysis 23
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings 23
Business Environment Outlook 24
Institutions 24
TABLE: BMI BUSINESS AN D OPERATION RIS K RATIN GS 24
TABLE: BMI LEGAL FRAME WOR K RATIN G 25
TABLE: LABOUR FORCE QUA LIT Y 26
Infrastructure 27
TABLE: MI DDLE EAST & AFRICA , ANNUA L FDI IN FLOWS 28
Market Orientation 29
TABLE: TRADE AND INVESTMENT RATINGS 29
Operational Risk 31
Chapter 5: BMI Global Assumptions 33
Global Outlook 33
Oil Risks
TABLE: Global Assumptions 33
TABLE: GLOBAL & RE GIONAL REAL GDP GROWTH % CHG Y-O-Y 34
TABLE: CONSENSUS FORECASTS 34
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