The Dutch economy returned to growth in 2010 with full-year GDP coming in at 1.8% year-on-year (y-oy). This growth has had a positive impact on consumer confidence, which has advanced significantly over the past 12 months. Spending remains on a gradually improving trend, which we expect to continue over the coming months. Leading indicators also provide some cause for optimism, with retail sales growth remaining positive, if erratic, and consumer confidence indicators continuing to grind higher.
Headline Industry Data
?? 2011 per capita food consumption = +3.1%; forecast to 2015 = +16.1%
?? 2011 alcoholic drink sales = +4.6%; forecast to 2015 = +22.8%
?? 2011 soft drink sales =+5.1%; forecast to 2015 = +24.3%
?? 2011 mass grocery retail sales = +6.3%; forecast to 2015 = +30.1%
Key Industry Trends & Developments
Heinz Centralises European Supply Chain in Netherlands – Global food leader HJ Heinz has recently announced plans to centralise its procurement operations and establish a European supply chain hub in the Netherlands. Manufacturing, logistics and inventory control will also be centralised at the hub. As well as the location for Heinz’ European HQ, Zeist has been chosen for its proximity to the company’s European ketchup factory and research centre. The group’s motivation for creating the hub is to improve speed and quality in the supply chain, to push innovation, to increase the expertise of the procurement function and to harness buying power more effectively.
Ahold Opens First Belgian Store/Ready for Acquisitions – Dutch retailer Ahold opened its first store in Belgium in mid-March 2011, the first of what the retailer hopes will be a portfolio of Albert Heijn stores in Flanders, the Dutch-speaking area of the country. CEO Dick Boer has also reiterated that the retailer is looking to expand the business in ‘existing and new markets’, including via acquisitions, emphasising that any targets would have to be businesses that could be integrated into the retailer’s current structure.
Having spent the last four years repositioning its banners in the USA and Europe, the company feels that it now has a ‘platform’ on both sides of the Atlantic to expand through M&A.
Key Risks to Outlook
Export Recovery – There are upside risks to our short-term forecasts as the timing of the anticipated slowdown in export growth is difficult to gauge. It is our core view that export growth, although remaining strong, has probably peaked as the rapid expansion in export orders seen in 2010 is now losing some steam. Over the longer run, the Netherlands’ relatively competitive external sector should allow it to take advantage of rising demand in emerging markets, boosting long-term growth.
Eurozone Debt Crisis – On the other hand, the ongoing eurozone crisis poses a threat to investor confidence towards the entire region. The risk of a major sovereign credit event in Europe would further damage confidence, putting significant pressure on export demand and, therefore, on the Netherland’s economic growth and consumption.

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BMI Industry View . 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Netherlands Food Industry SWOT 7
Netherlands Drink Industry SWOT . 8
Netherlands Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT 9
Business Environment . 10
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views 10
BMI Food & Drink Core Views 15
Western Europe Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings . 16
Table: Western Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q3 2011 20
Netherlands’ Food & Drink Business Environment Rating 21
Economic Outlook 22
Table: Netherlands - Economic Activity . 24
Industry Forecast Scenario . 25
Consumer Outlook . 25
Food. 27
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts 27
Confectionery . 28
Table: Confectionery Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts . 29
Drink 30
Soft Drinks And Bottled Water 30
Table: Soft Drink Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts 31
Alcoholic Drinks 32
Table: Alcoholic Drink Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts . 33
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales By Format (US$bn) – Historical Data & Forecasts . 35
Table: Food Sales By Format – Historical Data And Forecasts 35
Table: Alcohol And Tobacco Sales By Format – Historical Data And Forecasts 35
Trade . 36
Food 37
Key Industry Trends And Developments 37
Heinz Centralises European Supply Chain In The Netherlands . 37
Drop In Unilever’s Q4 Margin Point To Difficulties For Food Sector From Rising Commodity Prices . 38
Dairy Giant Poised For Growth . 39
Netherlands Positioned As R&D Hub . 41
Market Overview . 42
Food . 42
Dairy . 42
Drink . 44
Key Industry Trends & Developments 44
Heineken’s Results Highlight Strength Of Emerging Markets But More Expansion Still Needed 44
Refresco’s Consolidation Of Private Label Soft Drinks Has Long-Term Merit . 46
Market Overview . 47
Soft Drinks And Bottled Water 47
Alcoholic Drinks . 47
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Data . 48
Mass Grocery Retail 50
Key Industry Trends And Developments 50
Ahold Can Make Progress In Belgium With Low-Price Model 50
Consolidation Of Sector 51
Market Overview . 53
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets . 55
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Value (US$mn) 55
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Value (EURmn) . 55
Table: Annual Average Sales Per Outlet By Format – 2009 . 55
Competitive Landscape 56
Table: Key Players in Dutch Food Sector . 56
Table: Key Players in Dutch Drink Sector 57
Table: Key Players in Dutch Mass Grocery Retail Sector 58
Company Analysis 59
Food. 59
Unilever 59
FrieslandCampina 62
Drink 64
Heineken International . 64
Mass Grocery Retail 66
Ahold 66
BMI Food & Drink Methodology 68
Food And Drink Business Environment Ratings 68
Table: Rewards . 69
Table: Risks 70
Weighting . 70
Table: Weighting 71
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary . 72
Food & Drink . 72
Mass Grocery Retail . 72
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing . 74
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts . 74
Sourcing 75
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