Freight in the Netherlands receives a huge boost from the fact that it has the largest container port in Europe in the form of the port of Rotterdam. The port performed strongly in 2010 and looks set to experience strong growth both in 2011 and over the forecast period.
The port of Amsterdam is set to grow even more strongly in 2011 - by 11% - and over the forecast period between 2011 and 2015, tonnage throughput is expected to average 10% year-on-year (y-o-y), compared to the 5% average expected at the port of Rotterdam.
The port of Rotterdam links into road and rail transport networks, and rail freight in particular is set to have strong growth in 2011. For the overland transport modes, rail freight is set to lead the way and is expected to perform strongly over the forecast period and in total tonnage terms, we forecast a volume growth by an annual average of 9%. The road sector will not perform as well as rail and over the forecast period, in tonnage terms we forecast average annual growth of 2%.
The air cargo industry, is expected to perform strongly in 2011 with 5% growth as the Netherlands captures new business with emerging markets and across the forecast period to 2015, average annual growth is predicted to be 5%.
BMI predicts that total trade growth in real terms in the Netherlands will slow in 2011 to 4.65%, down from 5.6% in 2010 but up from the -3.9% decline in recession-dominated 2009. Over the forecast period, exports are expected to average 3% y-o-y, imports will average 6% and total trade will average 4%. BMI forecasts only a modest uptick in real GDP growth from 1.7% in 2010 to 2.2% in 2011 and expect that household budgets will remain constrained by deleveraging and a weak job market by historical standards.
Prime Minister Rutte's right-wing coalition will face significant challenges in 2011 due to a wafer-thin majority in parliament, as well as our expectation that the economic environment will remain challenging.
With Rutte's Liberal Party (PVVD) and Christian Democrats (CDA) only able to muster 52 seats between them, support from the Geert Wilders' Party For Freedom (PVV) with its 24 seats will provide a parliamentary majority of just one seat. The slenderness of this majority, coupled with the unpredictability of Geert Wilders and the PVV, leads BMI to believe this will be a precarious arrangement.
Headline Industry Data
.. 2011 Port of Rotterdam throughput forecast is +5.9% following projected growth of 11.1% in 2010.
.. 2011 Port of Amsterdam throughput forecast is +11% following projected growth of 4.3% in 2010.
.. 2011 y-o-y rail freight total tonnage volume growth is forecast to grow 10% following growth of 32.8% in 2010.
.. 2011 total trade growth forecast is +4.65%.
Key Industry Trends
Schiphol Airport And Incheon International Enter Into E-Freight Agreement Netherlands-based Schiphol Airport in mid March 2011 entered into an e-freight agreement with South Korea's Incheon International Airport, which will enable both parties to jointly promote paperless air cargo transportation.
Air France-KLM Cargo Sees Strong Recovery In 2010 Air France-KLM's cargo unit had a US$81.6mn operating profit in the final three months of 2010, a strong recovery from the US$39.5mn loss in 2009, extending a year-long recovery that has been driven by sharply higher margins.
Port Of Rotterdam's Trade With Russia Now Rivals Hamburg Rotterdam's increasing trade with Russia presents upside risk to our forecasts for the port, which is Europe's biggest in terms of container throughput. Rotterdam is capitalising on the lack of direct calls to Russian ports on the Asia to Europe route and it is doing so at the expense of the port of Hamburg, the traditional transhipment hub for Eastern Europe.
Port Of Rotterdam Will Help Develop China's Nangang Industrial Port Complex The trend of major European ports offering their expertise to ports in emerging states continues with the Port of Rotterdam signing an agreement to help develop China's Nangang Industrial Port Complex in early March. The port of Rotterdam will help manage the port for five years which is currently being developed. The port of Rotterdam is the first foreign port authority to become active at a Chinese port.
TNT Innight Launched New Time Critical Delivery Service TNT Innight launched its MannedPudoSolutionTM service in late April to offer customers more dynamic and strategic schedules. TNT Innight, which is part of TNT Express, provides a time-critical service in the Netherlands as well as many other European countries.
Risks To Outlook
Contagion from the weaker European economies, a renewal of the banking crisis and austerity measures being implemented by governments across Europe following the global economic downturn of 2009 are all downside risks to our forecasts.
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