Netherlands Telecommunications Report Q1 2012

BMI’s Q112 update to the Netherlands Telecoms Report contains extended forecasts through to 2016 for the mobile, fixed-line and broadband subscriber markets, as well as for mobile monthly blended ARPU.
The report on the Netherlands telecommunications market provides a comprehensive overview of the latest trends and the developments that have occurred within the country’s mobile, fixed-line telephony, and internet sectors. This quarter sees only minor changes to our forecasts, with our assumptions about the underlying trends impacting the market over the medium term unchanged. We have, however, made minor changes on the basis of regulatory data that cover the period to the end of June 2011, as well as operator data for the mobile, fixed-line and broadband markets for the period to the end of September 2011. Our new forecast for the mobile market incorporates the latest subscriber data, published by the country’s three largest operators, KPN, Vodafone and T-Mobile, for Q311. Our new wireline forecasts incorporate data from OPTA, and from leading wireline operators such as KPN, UPC and Zesko Holding (Ziggo), T-Mobile and Tele2.
Strong growth in the mobile market continued in Q311, although performance dipped from the 2.2% growth in Q211 to 1.4% q-o-q growth, taking penetration to over 120% at the end of September 2011. In addition to achieving a fast rate of growth, the Netherlands market has seen a high quality of subscriber, with 7.2% y-o-y growth in postpaid subscriptions to Q311, compared to 1.4% y-o-y growth in prepaid subscriptions. For 2011 as a whole, we now predict full-year growth of just over 5.8%.
The key recent developments in the mobile sector were the actual and potential changes to the dynamics of competition. On one hand, led by KPN, mobile operators moved away from unlimited data tariffs and raised prices for mobile services in the wake of the passing of strict net neutrality legislation. The market will also be impacted by the September 2011 announcement that the Dutch government was looking to reserve one-third of new wireless spectrum for new market entrants. The government plans to auction off a number of blocks of spectrum in 2012, including frequencies in the 800MHz band suitable for 4G mobile data services. The state’s move to ring fence a significant portion of the spectrum on offer is welcomed by the likes of Tele2 and local cable broadband operators – Ziggo and Liberty Global Inc’s UPC – but has reportedly angered Dutch incumbent operator KPN, which is said to be considering a legal challenge against the government’s plan. Tele2 Netherlands has already expressed an interest in bidding for 800MHz spectrum, which it sees as a way of providing 4G services based on LTE services, in competition against the established mobile network operators.
The most recent data from the regulator OPTA show that the Dutch broadband market had almost 6.4mn fixed connections at the end of June 2011 with a further 768,000 dedicated mobile broadband subscriptions, slightly lower than we had expected in our previous forecast. By the end of 2011, BMI now expects the Netherlands to have almost 7.3mn broadband connections, reflecting full-year growth of 3.4%, a minor downgrade from our earlier forecast, as mobile broadband growth failed to substitute for plateauing growth in fixed subscriptions as penetration approached 40%.
The Netherlands maintained third position in BMI’s latest set of Risk/Reward Ratings for Western Europe, and saw its score rise, embedding its position and its lead over fourth place. However, due to the smaller size of its market, it continues to trail regional leaders the UK and France. This quarter sees the country’s Telecoms Rating increase from 67 to 68.1, an increase that is largely due to a stronger performance in the Industry Rewards category. The Netherlands continues to score above the regional average in all the categories evaluated by BMI.

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Executive Summary 7
SWOT Analysis 9
Netherlands Mobile Industry SWOT 9
Netherlands Wireline Industry SWOT 10
Netherlands Political SWOT 11
Netherlands Economic SWOT 12
Netherlands Business Environment SWOT 13
Business Environment 14
Table: Western Europe Business Environment Ratings, Q112 16
Netherlands 17
Industry Forecast Scenario 19
Mobile 19
Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts 19
Mobile ARPU 21
Table: Telecoms Sector – ARPU (EUR) – Historical Data & Forecasts 21
Fixed Line 23
Table: Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data & Forecasts 23
Internet 25
Table: Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts 25
Market Data Analysis 27
Mobile 27
Table: Netherlands Mobile Subscribers Q310-Q311 (‘000) 29
Table: Subscriber Net Additions, Q310-Q311 (‘000) 29
Customer Divisions 30
Table: Subscriber Mix, Q310-Q311 (‘000) 31
ARPU 31
MVNOs 33
Mobile Internet 35
Mobile Contract Wins 36
Table: Mobile Contract Wins 36
Mobile Operator Data 37
Table: Market Overview 37
Table: KPN 37
Table: T-Mobile 38
Table: Vodafone 39
Mobile Content 41
Industry Trends And Developments - Software And Content To Drive Revenues 41
Smart Meter Race Is On 45
Country Outlook 46
Value-Added Services Timeline 50
Table: Selected VAS Services 50
Fixed Line 51
Internet 54
Table: Netherlands Retail Broadband Connections By Technology (‘000) 54
Netherlands Telecoms Report Q1 2012
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FTTH 57
IPTV 59
WiMAX 61
Long-term Evolution (LTE) 61
Table: Wireline developments 62
Regulatory Environment & Industry Developments 64
Netherlands: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities 64
Overview 64
Legislation 65
Market Analyses 65
Interconnection And Access 67
Market Development 67
Regulatory Developments 67
Competitive Landscape 71
Market Overview 71
Key Players 71
Table: Key Players: Netherlands Telecoms Sector 71
Table: Selected Operators Financial Indicators, 2005-2010 72
Company Monitor 73
Company News Alert - Security and Machines - Gemalto Product Portfolio Ready For The Future 73
Table: Recent Contracts 76
Company Profile 77
Royal KPN NV 77
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview 85
Fixed Line 85
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview 86
Mobile 87
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview 88
Internet 89
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview 90
Country Snapshot: Netherlands Demographic Data 91
Section 1: Population 91
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 91
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 92
Section 2: Education And Healthcare 92
Table: Education, 2002-2005 92
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 92
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power 93
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power 93
Table: Employment Indicators, 2000-2005 93
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) 93
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 94
Glossary Of Terms 95
Table: Glossary Of Terms 95
BMI Methodology 96
Netherlands Telecoms Report Q1 2012
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How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 96
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts 96
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings 98
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 98
Table: Ratings Indicators 99
Weighting 100
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 100
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