Core Views
Nigeria is set to experience strong growth, underpinned by the oil sector, private consumption, and increasing investment as meaningful reforms to the business environment take hold. We are forecasting real GDP expansion of 7.8% in 2011 and 7.6% in 2012.
The non-oil sectors have shown great promise, with telecoms leading the way in recent years and agriculture beginning to gather positive momentum.
Key Risk To Outlook
While investor sentiment has been bolstered by the political stability following a decisive general election, subsequent violence in the north, particularly from the terrorist organisation Boko Haram, threatens to damage Nigeria’s international reputation and constrain investment.
Oil prices, which have remained elevated from the beginning of 2011, are subject to volatility, posing both upside and downside risks to
Nigeria, Sub-Saharan Africa’s leading crude producer.
[Studien Infos ausblenden]

Executive Summary 5
Core Views5
Key Risk To Outlook5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Political Risk Ratings 7
Political Risk 8
Growing Boko Haram Threat To Be Contained
Boko Haram represents a significant threat to Nigerian security, as its loose organisation, hard-line ideology and violent tactics complicate diplomatic efforts of pacification
Long-Term Political Outlook 9
‘Failed State’ Or African Powerhouse?
Nigeria is facing a number of challenges over the coming decade in the wake of the elections held in April 2011
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook 13
SWOT Analysis 13
BMI Economic Risk Ratings 13
Economic Activity 14
Broader-Based Growth On The Horizon
While significant challenges remain, we believe that Nigeria’s momentum is building in a positive direction, and we reiterate our expectations of strong growth moving forward
Table: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, 2006-2015 14
Business Environment Reform 15
Reforms In Oil And Banking Take Centre Stage
Now that Nigeria’s general elections and subsequent unrest have come to an end, officials’ attention will be increasingly
turned to the longstanding need for reforms in the oil sector
Capital Markets 17
Capital Markets To Become ‘World-Class’?
In an exclusive interview with Arunma Oteh, the director of the Nigerian Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC ), we learned of significant initiatives to improve Nigeria’s capital markets
Encouraging Market Participation 18
Regulatory Changes Affecting Trade and Investment 19
Key Sector Agribusiness 19
Unlocking Agricultural Potential: A Success Story
Officials in the Nigerian state of Kwara are searching for ways to unlock the long-recognised potential of the country’s agricultural industry, and meeting with some success
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast 23
The Nigerian Economy To 2020 23
Infrastructure Investment Is Key
We forecast average annual real GDP growth of 74% over the next 10 years
Table: NIGERIA – LONG -TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS, 2013-2020 23
Chapter 4: Business Environment 25
SWOT Analysis 25
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings 25
Business Environment Outlook 26
Institutions 26
TABLE: BMI BUSINESS AND OPERATION RISK RATINGS 26
TABLE: BMI LEGAL FRAMEWORK RATING 27
Infrastructure 28
TABLE: LABOUR FORCE QUALITY 29
TABLE: MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA, ANNUAL FDI INFLOWS 30
TABLE: TRADE AND INVESTMENT RATINGS 31
Market Orientation 32
TABLE: TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS, US $MN 32
Operational Risk 33
Chapter 5: Key Sectors 35
Pharmaceuticals 35
Table: Generic Drug Sales Indicators, 2007-2015 36
Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators, 2007-2015 37
Table: Medical Devices Sales Indicators, 2007-2015 37
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, 2007-2015 38
Table: Prescription Drug Sales Indicators, 2007-2015 38
Telecommunications 39
Table: Telecoms Sector — Fixed Line — Historical Data & Forecasts, 2008-2015 40
Table: Telecoms Sector — Internet — Historical Data & Forecasts, 2008-2015 40
Table: Telecoms Sector — Mobile — Historical Data & Forecasts 41
Other Key Sectors 42
Table: NIGERIA Autos Sector Key Indicators 42
Table: NIGERIA Infrastructure Sector Key Indicators 42
Table: NIGERIA Food and Drink Sector Key Indicators 42
Table: NIGERIA Oil and Gas Sector Key Indicators 42
Chapter 6: BMI Global Assumptions 43
Global Outlook 43
Second Half Risks
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS 43
Table: EMERGING MARKETS AGGREGATE GROWTH 44
Table: DEVELOPED STATES REAL GDP GROWTH FORECAST 45
Table: REAL GDP GROWTH CONSENSUS FORECASTS 45

[Inhaltsverzeichnis ausblenden]