BMI View: This quarter we have updated our forecasts for Nigeria to include recent developments and trends which have emerged following the release of the new data. New historical data show that in 2010 – due to both extremely low growth in Q2 and Q3 and unexpected higher inflation – the country suffered negative real growth of -0.5. However, the positive outcome of the election should further stimulate the development of new projects causing the construction industry value to rise in 2012. In light of this, we maintain that roads and railways will continue to account for the lion’s share of transport infrastructure industry value. Energy and utilities also hold upside potential, given the government’s ambitious plans for the sector. As such, BMI is now forecasting Nigeria’s construction industry to reach a value of US$2.9bn in 2011, and US$6.4 by 2015.
Key developments include:
?? The immediate aftermath of the elections has been characterised by political stability, and we believe that, if maintained, these conditions will help to foster investor confidence. Furthermore, the re-election of Goodluck Jonathan is very positive, as the newly appointed administration is likely to be keen to advance projects that were approved before the elections.
?? The re-election of Jonathan will likely benefit the energy sector. His national Integrated Power Project (NIPP) forms a core part of the electricity sector recovery plan and early successes will certainly encourage a bullish outlook for Nigeria's energy infrastructure prospects.
?? US energy holding company PGI Energy, along with its joint venture (JV) partners J & L Instrumentation and Power and Knox J & L Energy Solutions, is to begin construction work on several planned power plants, reports Power-Technology. The plants, to be built in Ajaokuta, are to have a capacity of 1,000MW. PGI Energy is to provide the required US$700mn to fund the project through the American investment bank Pythagoras Group.
?? The Nigerian Federal Executive Council (FEC) has approved NGN22bn-worth of contracts for the construction of a new terminal building at the Aminu Kano International Airport in Kano and the upgrade of the Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport in Abuja. Meanwhile, the FEC ratified anticipatory approval for the construction of a new terminal building at the Mallam Aminu Kano International Airport (MAKIA), according to Minister of Information and Communication Labaran Maku. In addition, the council also approved the ratification of the Bilateral Air Services Agreement (BASA) between Nigeria and Cameroon.

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Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Nigeria Infrastructure SWOT 6
Market Overview 7
Nigeria 7
Building Materials 9
Global Materials 9
Africa Overview 16
Industry Forecast Scenario 21
Table: Nigeria Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data 21
Table: Nigeria Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data 22
Construction and Infrastructure Forecast Scenario 24
Transport Infrastructure 27
Table: Nigeria Transport Infrastructure Industry Data 27
Table: Nigeria Transport Infrastructure Industry Data 29
Transport Infrastructure Forecast Scenario 31
Transport Infrastructure Overview 34
Key Projects – Transport Infrastructure 36
Table: Major Infrastructure Projects – Transport 36
Energy and Utilities 41
Table: Nigeria Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Industry Data 41
Table: Nigeria Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Industry Data 43
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Forecast Scenario 45
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Overview 47
Table: List of IPPs in Nigeria 49
Key Projects – Energy and Utilities Infrastructure 54
Table: Major Infrastructure Projects – Energy & Utilities 54
Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure 56
Table: Nigeria Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data 56
Table: Nigeria Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data 57
Residential/Non-Residential Construction Forecast Scenario 58
Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure Overview 59
Business Environment 61
Nigeria Business Environment 61
Rewards 61
Risks 61
Regional Overview 62
Africa Infrastructure Business Environment Ratings 62
Table: Regional Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings 63
Company Monitor 68
Julius Berger Nigeria Plc 68
Setraco Nigeria Limited 70
Global Overview 71
2011 Global Infrastructure Outlook: Assessing The Risks Ahead 71
Methodology 78
Industry Forecasts 78
Construction Industry 79
Data Methodology 79
New Infrastructure Data Sub-sectors 79
Construction 80
Capital Investment 81
Construction Sector Employment 82
Infrastructure Business Environment Rating 83
Table: Infrastructure Business Environment Indicators 84
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