The latest Nigeria Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 8.95% of African regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 24.22% of supply. African regional oil use of 3.06mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 3.63mn b/d in 2010. It should average 3.62mn b/d in 2011 and then rise to around 4.09mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 8.08mn b/d in 2001, and in 2010 averaged an estimated 10.74mn b/d. After dropping to an estimated 9.66mn b/d in 2011 because of the loss of Libyan volumes, it is set to rise to 12.91mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging behind the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 6.02mn b/d. This total rose to an estimated 8.15mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 9.85mn b/d by 2015. Nigeria has the greatest production growth potential, with Angolan exports also set to climb significantly.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 consumed an estimated 120.6bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 162.3bcm forecast for 2015. Production of an estimated 208.7bcm in 2010 should reach 295.2bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 105bcm to 151bcm in 2015. In 2010, Nigeria consumed an estimated 10.79% of the region’s gas, with its market share forecast at 14.63% by 2015. It contributed an estimated 16.29% to 2010 regional gas production and by 2015 will account for 19.99% of supply.
The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45 per barrel (bbl) for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34/bbl and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year.
We set our 2011 supply, demand and price forecasts in early January, targeting global oil demand growth of 1.53% and supply growth of 1.91%. With OECD inventories at the top of their five-year average range, we set a price forecast of US$80/bbl average for the OPEC basket in 2011. The unprecedented wave of popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that followed the removal of Tunisian President Ben Ali on January 14 has obviously fundamentally altered our outlook, particularly since the unrest spread to Libya in mid-February.
Taking into account the risk premium that has been added to crude prices in response to actual and perceived threats to supply, we have now raised our benchmark OPEC basket price forecast from US$80 to US$101.90/bbl for 2011 and from US$85 to US$95/bbl for 2012. Based on our expectations for differentials, this gives a forecast for Brent at US$106.00/bbl in 2011 and US$97.62/bbl in 2012. We have kept our long-term price assumption of US$90/bbl (OPEC basket) in place for the time being while we wait to see what path events in the MENA region take.
Nigeria’s GDP rose 7.9% in 2010 and BMI forecasts average annual growth of 7.7% in 2010-2015. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 280,000b/d in 2010 to 367,000b/d in 2015, representing 6-7% average annual growth. State-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) accounts for more than 50% of oil production and more than 40% of gas supply, but a large number of international oil company (IOC) partners contribute to a forecast rise in oil and liquids production from an estimated 2.46mn b/d in 2010 to 3.13mn b/d by 2015 – subject to fresh rebel attacks on infrastructure and OPEC quota policy. Gas production should reach 59bcm by 2015, up from an estimated 34bcm in 2010.
Consumption is expected to rise dramatically to around 23.75bcm by the end of the forecast period, allowing exports of no more than 35.25bcm. This threatens the country’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) export business unless fresh supplies can be located and developed.
Between 2010 and 2020 we forecast an increase in Nigerian oil and gas liquids production of about 36%, with volumes rising steadily to 3.35mn b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption is set to increase by 87.6%, with growth slowing to an assumed 7.5% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 525,000b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise to 80bcm by the end of the period. With demand rising by 315% between 2010 and 2020, export potential should increase to 39bcm, largely in the form of LNG, though some exports will be through the West Africa Gas Pipeline and potentially through the ambitious proposed Trans Saharan Gas Pipeline. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Nigeria now holds second place in BMI’s composite Business Environment Ratings (BERs) table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. The country now shares third place with Ghana in BMI’s updated upstream ratings. Nigeria’s score benefits from its substantial oil and gas reserves, its oil and gas production growth outlook, and high reserves-to-production ratios (RPR). The competitive landscape features numerous non-state companies, and licensing terms are generally acceptable, although potentially under review. However, negative country risk factors undermine the hydrocarbons-specific strength.
Nigeria is in the upper half of the league table in BMI’s downstream ratings, with a few high scores but near-term progress further up the rankings unlikely. It is ranked fourth, behind Algeria, thanks largely to poor country risk factors that undermine further a regulated and largely state-controlled industry.

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Executive Summary . 7
SWOT Analysis 9
Nigeria Political SWOT . 9
Nigeria Economic SWOT 10
Nigeria Business Environment SWOT .. 11
Nigeria Energy Market Overview 12
Regional Market Overview . 15
Oil Supply and Demand .. 15
Table: Africa’s Oil Consumption, 2008-2015 (000b/d) 16
Table: Africa’s Oil Production, 2008-2015 (000b/d) 17
Oil: Downstream 18
Table: Africa’s Oil Refining Capacity, 2008-2015 (000b/d) . 18
Gas Supply And Demand 19
Table: Africa’s Gas Consumption, 2008-2015 (bcm) 19
Table: Africa’s Gas Production, 2008-2015 (bcm) 20
Liquefied Natural Gas . 21
Table: Africa’s LNG Exports, 2008-2015 (bcm) . 21
Business Environment Ratings .. 22
Composite Scores 22
Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating 22
Upstream Scores 23
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Ratings 23
Nigeria’s Upstream Rating – Overview .. 24
Nigeria’s Upstream Rating – Rewards 24
Nigeria’s Upstream Rating – Risks 24
Downstream Scores . 25
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Ratings .. 25
Nigeria’s Downstream Rating – Overview. 26
Nigeria Downstream Rating – Rewards .. 26
Nigeria Downstream Rating – Risks . 26
Business Environment 27
Legal Framework .. 27
Infrastructure .. 29
Labour Force .. 30
Foreign Investment Policy 31
Tax Regime .. 31
Security Risk 32
Industry Forecast Scenario 34
Oil And Gas Reserves . 34
Oil Supply and Demand . 34
Gas Supply And Demand .. 35
LNG . 37
Refining And Oil Products Trade .. 37
Revenues And Import Costs . 39
Table: Nigeria Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts .. 40
Other Energy .. 41
Table: Nigeria Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts 42
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario .. 43
Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook .. 43
Oil and Gas Infrastructure .. 44
Oil Refineries .. 44
Table: Refineries In Nigeria . 44
Oil Terminals/Ports . 46
LNG Terminals .. 46
Table: LNG Projects In Nigeria .. 49
Gas Pipelines .. 49
Macroeconomic Outlook . 51
Table: Nigeria – Economic Activity, 2007-2015 . 53
Competitive Landscape .. 54
Executive Summary .. 54
Table: Key Players – Nigerian Oil And Gas Sector .. 56
Overview/State Role . 57
Licensing And Regulation .. 57
Petroleum Industry Bill And NNPC Reform .. 57
Government Policy 59
Licensing Rounds 65
Table: Key Nigerian Upstream Players .. 67
Table: Key Nigerian Downstream Players. 67
Company Monitor 68
Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) . 68
Royal Dutch Shell .. 72
ExxonMobil 77
Chevron .. 80
Eni . 84
Total . 87
Afren . 91
ConocoPhillips – Summary 95
ONGC Mittal Energy (OMEL) – Summary 96
Petrobras – Summary .. 97
BG Group – Summary .. 97
Gazprom – Summary 98
Addax Petroleum – Summary 99
Oando – Summary 100
Sinopec – Summary ..101
Korea National Oil Corporation (KNOC) – Summary 101
Septa Energy – Summary ..102
Sunrise – Summary ..102
Maurel & Prom – Summary .102
Others – Summary 103
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts 105
Regional Oil Demand 105
Table: Africa’s Oil Consumption, 2013-2020 (000b/d) ..105
Regional Oil Supply .106
Table: Africa’s Oil Production, 2013-2020 (000b/d) ..106
Regional Refining Capacity .107
Table: Africa’s Oil Refining Capacity, 2013-2020 (000b/d) .107
Regional Gas Demand 108
Table: Africa’s Gas Consumption, 2013-2020 (bcm) ..108
Regional Gas Supply 109
Table: Africa’s Gas Production, 2013-2020 (bcm) ..109
Nigeria Country Overview 109
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts .110
Glossary Of Terms .. 111
BMI Methodology . 112
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ..112
Energy Industry .112
Cross Checks ..113
Oil And Gas Ratings Methodology113
Table: Structure Of BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings .115
Indicators ..116
Table: BMI’s Upstream Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Methodology .116
Table: BMI’s Downstream Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Methodology 117
Sources ..118
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