After the turmoil in the first quarter of 2011, it is unsurprising that the picture in North African telecoms markets remains unclear. At the time of writing, the conflict continued in Libya, while Tunisia has achieved substantial progress in its political transitions. Our Country Risk analysts have increased the short-term political risk ratings for Tunisia, but we anticipate continued risks to a successful political transition.
Political risks weigh heavily on the region, although we anticipate continued growth in the mobile sector in particular. In the short term, BMI has noted little real impact on the market, with the exception of Libya where rebels have reportedly built their own mobile network. The impact of the upheaval will be more long term, particularly in encouraging future outside investment and overall ICT policy. That said, investment in Algeria's Djezzy still remains under question after the valuation deadline passed without resolution. Although Algeria may not have been affected by as much upheaval as its neighbours, signs of resistance to outside investment were already apparent and concerning to BMI. That the issue goes on is equally concerning, and BMI does not see a quick or easy solution to the problem. North African markets remain at the bottom of our Business Environment Ratings, with only Iran showing weaker scores. The low rating is from a combination of weak Industry Rewards and Country Risk scores. Libya has the dubious honour of holding the poorest score for Industry Risks, a score which considers the independence of the national regulator.
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Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
North Africa Mobile SWOT 6
North Africa Fixed-Line And Broadband SWOT 7
Business Environment 8
Middle East And North Africa 8
North Africa 10
Table: Regional Telecoms Business Environment Ratings 13
Industry Forecast Scenario 14
Mobile 14
Table: North Africa Telecoms Sector – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2008-2015 14
Fixed Line 17
Table: North Africa – Fixed-Line Sector – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2008-2015 17
Internet And Broadband 19
Table: North Africa – Internet And Broadband Sectors – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2008-2015 19
Market Data Analysis 22
Mobile 22
Algeria 22
Table: Algeria Mobile Market, Q111 25
Table: Algeria – Mobile Blended ARPUs, 2009-2010 (user/month) 26
Libya 27
Table: Libya Mobile Market, Q111 28
Morocco 30
Table: Morocco Mobile Market, Q111 33
Tunisia 33
Table: Tunisia – Mobile Market, Q111 35
3G 36
Algeria 36
Morocco 37
Tunisia 37
Libya 38
Mobile Operator Data 39
Table: Mobilis 39
Table: Nedjma 40
Table: Djezzy 41
Table: Maroc Telecom 42
Table: Meditel 42
Table: Tunisie Telecom 43
Table: Tunisiana 43
Fixed Line 44
Algeria 44
Table: Growth Of Fixed Lines By Technology, 2000-2008 (‘000) 44
Libya 45
Morocco 46
Table: Moroccan Fixed-Line Market, 2009-2010 47
Tunisia 48
Internet 50
Algeria 50
Libya 51
Morocco 52
Tunisia 53
Regulatory Environment & Industry Developments 55
Table: North African Regulatory Environment 55
Algeria 55
Libya 56
Morocco 57
Tunisia 57
Competitive Landscape 59
Key Players 59
Table: Key Players – North Africa Telecoms Sector 59
Company Monitor 60
Nokia Siemens Networks: Steady Performance In Africa 60
Table: Nokia Siemens Networks Financial Results, 2009 Vs 2010 61
Table: Nokia Siemens Networks - Selected Agreements, 2009-2011 64
Company Profiles 65
Algérie Télécom 65
Maroc Télécom 67
Tunisie Télécom 70
Orascom Telecom 72
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview 74
Fixed-Line 74
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview 74
Mobile 75
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview 75
Broadband 76
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview 76
Macroeconomic Data Tables 77
Table: Algeria – Economic Activity, 2006-2014 77
Table: Morocco – Economic Activity, 2006-2014 77
Table: Tunisia – Economic Activity, 2006-2014 78
Glossary Of Terms 79
Table: Glossary Of Terms 79
BMI Methodology 80
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 80
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts 80
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings 82
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 82
Table: Ratings Indicators 83
Weighting 84
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 84
Sources 84
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