ABOUT DATAMONITOR HEALTHCARE 2
About the PharmaVitae team 2
Chapter 1 About this profile 3
PharmaVitae Explorer database 3
Chapter structure 3
Executive summary 3
Quarterly update 3
Company introduction 3
Company sales 4
Company financials 4
Key products 4
Data sourcing 4
Sales data 4
Analyst consensus 4
Chapter 2 Executive summary 5
Key findings 5
Prescription pharmaceutical sales and growth rate performance, 2003-15 6
Financial performance, 2003-15 7
Novartis: PharmaVitae forecasts at a glance 8
Strategic insight 9
Novartis is forecast to deliver strongest organic growth within Big Pharma 2009-15 9
Diversified prescription pharma offering integral to sales growth performance 9
Exposure to generic competition will blunt branded pharmaceutical sales growth 10
Evolution of vaccine offering will drive steady revenue growth 12
Sandoz poised to exploit diverse segments of global generics market 13
Further diversification to be driven by Alcon acquisition 16
SWOT analysis 19
Strengths 19
Weaknesses 20
Opportunities 21
Threats 22
Table of Contents 23
Table of figures 25
Chapter 3 Quarterly update 26
Latest quarterly sales 26
Latest comment 27
Q2 2010 27
Novartis: blockbuster revenues beckon for multiple sclerosis pill 27
Lucentis shows potential in diabetic macular edema 27
AAN 2010: spotlight shines on Novartis' and Merck KGaA's oral MS candidates 28
Q1 2010 30
Novartis: Debiopharm deal strengthens hepatitis C pipeline 30
Novartis: Fanapt marks weak return to competitive antipsychotics market 31
Novartis eyes Alcon merger 32
Q4 2009 32
ASH 2009: Novartis looks to position Tasigna as an alternative to Gleevec in CML 32
Q2 2009 34
Novartis: Afinitor boasts considerable commercial potential 34
Q1 2009 35
Novartis: Extavia launch provides foothold in MS market 35
Latest prescription pharma product news 36
Q2 2010 36
Q1 2010 37
Q4 2009 38
Q3 2009 40
Q2 2009 40
Q1 2009 41
Latest corporate news 42
Q2 2010 42
Q1 2010 42
Q4 2009 43
Q3 2009 44
Q2 2009 45
Q1 2009 45
Chapter 4 Company introduction 46
Key findings 46
Background 47
Key corporate developments 47
M&A history 47
Push into generics market 48
Sandoz 48
Movement into vaccines/diagnostics 49
Chiron 49
Alcon deal demonstrates further diversification 50
One eye on Alcon: a strong fit with Novartis Ophthalmics 50
Recent M&A in branded prescription segment 51
Chapter 5 Company sales 52
Key findings 52
Prescription pharmaceutical sales and growth rate analysis, 2003-15 53
Product analysis 55
Product analysis, 2003-09 57
Product analysis, 2009-15 61
Product analysis, 2009-15 61
Therapy area analysis 65
Geographic analysis 68
Launch/core/expiry analysis 70
Explanation of launch/core/expiry analysis 70
Launch analysis, 2009-15 71
Core analysis, 2009-15 72
Expiry analysis, 2009-15 73
Generics analysis, 2009-15 74
Launch/core/expiry configuration, 2009-15 76
Molecule type analysis 77
Externalization analysis 80
Chapter 6 Company financials 83
Key findings 83
Reconciliation between PharmaVitae-formatted prescription pharma sales and company-reported total sales, 2003-09 84
Operating costs and profit analysis 85
Operating costs and profit analysis, 2003-09 86
Operating cost ratio and profit margin analysis, 2003-09 87
Operating cost ratio and profit margin analysis, 2009-15 88
Operating costs and profit analysis, 2009-15 89
Chapter 7 Key products 90
Overview 90
Glivec/Gleevec 91
Summary 92
Sales forecast 93
Gilenia 95
Summary 96
Sales forecast 97
QMF149 98
Summary 99
Sales forecast 100
QVA149 101
Summary 102
Sales forecast 103
Tasigna 104
Summary 105
Sales forecast 106
Diovan/Co-Diovan 107
Summary 108
Sales forecast 109
Co-Diovan 110
Summary 110
Sales forecast 111
Zometa (includes Aclasta/Reclast) 112
Summary 113
Sales forecast 114
Femara 115
Summary 116
Sales forecast 117
Sandostatin 118
Summary 118
Sales forecast 119
Chapter 8 Appendix 120
References 120
Abbreviations 120
Exchange rates 121
About Datamonitor 122
About Datamonitor Healthcare 122
Datamonitor consulting 122
Disclaimer 124
List of Tables
Table 1: Novartis - PharmaVitae forecasts at a glance 8
Table 2: Novartis quarterly sales ($m), Q109-Q110 26
Table 3: Novartis product portfolio overview ($m), 2003-09 57
Table 4: Novartis product portfolio overview ($m), 2009-15 61
Table 5: Novartis prescription pharmaceutical sales by therapy area ($m), 2009-15 67
Table 6: Novartis prescription pharmaceutical sales by geographic region ($m), 2009-15 69
Table 7: Novartis launch portfolio overview ($m), 2009-15 71
Table 8: Novartis core portfolio overview ($m), 2009-15 72
Table 9: Novartis expiry portfolio overview ($m), 2009-15 73
Table 10: Novartis (Sandoz) generics portfolio overview ($m), 2009-15 74
Table 11: Novartis prescription pharmaceutical sales by molecule type ($m), 2009-15 79
Table 12: Novartis prescription pharmaceutical sales by source ($m), 2009-15 82
Table 13: Total Novartis sales by business unit ($m), 2003-09 84
Table 14: Novartis operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2003-09 86
Table 15: Novartis operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2003-09 87
Table 16: Novartis operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2009-15 88
Table 17: Novartis operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2009-15 89
Table 18: Novartis Key products overview 90
Table 19: Glivec/Gleevec: overview 92
Table 20: Glivec/Gleevec: sales forecast ($m), 2009-15 93
Table 21: Gilenia: overview 96
Table 22: Gilenia: sales forecast ($m), 2009-15 97
Table 23: QMF149: overview 99
Table 24: QMF149: sales forecast ($m), 2009-15 100
Table 25: QVA149: overview 102
Table 26: QVA149: sales forecast ($m), 2009-15 103
Table 27: Tasigna: overview 105
Table 28: Tasigna: sales forecast ($m), 2009-15 106
Table 29: Diovan: overview 108
Table 30: Diovan: sales forecast ($m), 2009-15 109
Table 31: Co-Diovan: overview 110
Table 32: Co-Diovan: sales forecast ($m), 2009-15 111
Table 33: Zometa: overview 113
Table 34: Zometa: sales forecast ($m), 2009-15 114
Table 35: Femara: overview 116
Table 36: Femara: sales forecast ($m), 2009-15 117
Table 37: Sandostatin: overview 118
Table 38: Sandostatin: sales forecast ($m), 2009-15 119
Table 39: Exchange rates, 2010 121
List of Figures
Figure 1: The PharmaVitae Explorer 3
Figure 2: Novartis prescription pharmaceutical performance, sales ($m) and growth rate (%), 2003-15 6
Figure 3: Novartis's financial performance ($m), 2003-15 7
Figure 4: Novartis prescription pharmaceutical sales growth by business area ($m), 2009-15 10
Figure 5: Novartis prescription pharmaceutical sales growth by business area (branded portfolio segmented) ($m), 2009-15 11
Figure 6: Sandoz corporate structure demonstrating diverse growth opportunities 13
Figure 7: Sandoz M&A driven geographic expansion ($m), 2003-15 14
Figure 8: Synergies between Alcon and Novartis 17
Figure 9: Novartis SWOT analysis 19
Figure 10: Sandoz M&A history, 2001-09 48
Figure 11: Novartis prescription pharmaceutical performance, sales ($m) and growth rate (%), 2003-15 53
Figure 12: Novartis Key product sales ($m), 2003-15 55
Figure 13: Novartis key sales growth drivers and resistors ($m), 2003-09 58
Figure 14: Novartis key sales growth drivers and resistors ($m), 2009-15 63
Figure 15: Novartis prescription pharmaceutical sales by therapy area ($m), 2003-15 65
Figure 16: Novartis prescription pharmaceutical sales by geographic region ($m), 2003-15 68
Figure 17: Novartis launch/core/expiry configuration ($m), 2009-15 76
Figure 18: Novartis prescription pharmaceutical sales by molecule type ($m), 2003-15 78
Figure 19: Novartis prescription pharmaceutical sales by source ($m), 2003-15 81
Figure 20: Novartis operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2003-15 85
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