Oman Oil and Gas Report Q1 2012

The BMI global oil supply and demand assumptions for 2011 and beyond have again been revisited, reflecting changes in the oil market and broader macroeconomic trends.
The second half of 2011 saw much of the market’s focus shift from concerns over supply, following the loss of Libyan volumes in February, to worries over the demand outlook, as macroeconomic conditions worsened across Western and emerging economies.
In our view, the focus on demand-side dynamics will continue into 2012 as macroeconomic weakness feeds through into oil demand. We have downgraded our 2011 US real GDP growth forecast to 1.6% and the medium-term outlook offers little hope for a strong recovery. We expect even slower growth in the eurozone – of around 1.8% – and we see mounting risks to growth in China.
There is already evidence that worsening macroeconomic conditions and demand destruction resulting from high oil prices have started to hit oil consumption. In the US, we now forecast that liquids consumption will have grown by just 0.57% in 2011, compared to a growth rate of 2.01% in 2010. With signs that a disappointing summer driving season in the US was carrying on into the autumn, risks to this forecast are firmly to the downside, with potential for demand to actually shrink. The demand outlook for 2012 is only slightly higher, again with risk to the downside if macroeconomic conditions continue to deteriorate.
While growth has disappointed in Western economies, demand remained robust in emerging economies over H111, more than making up for slower-than-expected consumption in the West. China, of course, has been driving emerging market demand. However, government measures to counter inflation and address pollution concerns – by limiting car sales and raising fuel prices – look to be taking hold.
Demand, although still robust, started to slow in the June and July 2011 and continued to fall in August. Apparent oil demand grew by 7% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 8.98mn barrels/day (b/d). While those are strong numbers, 8.98mn b/d was the lowest figure since October 2010 and the underlying growth trend is showing signs of slowing. With government efforts to rein in inflation and address environmental concerns set to continue, we expect further deceleration in consumption growth through to the end of 2011 and into early 2012.
However, even with a weakening demand outlook, supply in the market remains very tight. Our forecasts show the global market running at a supply deficit of about 1.7mn b/d for 2011. The primary factor behind this deficit was Libya; but production from Latin America, the UK North Sea and Emerging Europe also disappointed.

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BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Oman Oil and Gas SWOT 6
Global Energy Market Outlook 7
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2009-2016 10
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d), 2009-2016 11
Regional Energy Market Outlook 12
Oil Supply And Demand 12
Table : Middle East Region Oil Consumption, (000b/d) 2008-2016 13
Table : Middle East Region Oil Production, (000b/d) 2008-2016 14
Oil: Downstream 15
Table : Middle East Region Refining Capacity, (000b/d) 2008-2016 15
Gas Supply And Demand 16
Table : Middle East Region Gas Consumption, (bcm) 2008-2016 16
Table : Middle East Region Gas Production, (bcm) 2008-2016 17
Liquefied Natural Gas 18
Table: Middle East Net LNG Exports (bcm) 18
Oman Energy Market Overview 19
Table: Oman – Upstream Projects Database 20
Industry Forecast Scenario 21
Table: Oman Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 21
Oil and Gas Reserves 22
Oil Supply and Demand 23
Gas Supply And Demand 25
LNG 26
Refining And Oil Products Trade 26
Revenues/Import Costs 26
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario 26
Oil and Gas Infrastructure 27
Oil Refineries 27
Table: Refineries In Oman 27
LNG Terminals 28
Table: LNG Terminals In Oman 28
Gas Pipelines 28
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings 29
Middle East Region 29
Composite Scores 29
Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating 29
Upstream Scores 30
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating 30
Downstream Scores 31
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating 31
Competitive Landscape 32
Executive Summary 32
Table: Key Companies In Oman’s Energy Sector 33
Overview/State Role 33
Licensing And Regulation 33
International Energy Relations 34
Table: Key Upstream Players 34
Table: Key Downstream Players 35
Company Monitor 36
Petroleum Development Oman (PDO) 36
Shell Oman Marketing Company 39
Oman Oil Company (OOC) 41
Occidental Petroleum (Oxy) 44
RAK Petroleum 46
CNPC 49
Oman Refineries And Petrochemicals Company – Summary 51
OOCEP – Summary 51
Total – Summary 51
BP – Summary 51
MOL – Summary 52
PTTEP – Summary 52
Petrogas – Summary 53
Tethys Oil – Summary 53
Circle Oil – Summary 53
Petroci/Rex Oil and Gas – Summary 54
Others – Summary 55
Appendix: Oil And Gas Long-Term Forecasts 56
Regional Oil Demand 56
Table : Middle East Region Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2014-2021 56
Regional Oil Supply 57
Table : Middle East Region Oil Production (000b/d), 2014-2021 57
Regional Refining Capacity 58
Table : Middle East Region Refining Capacity (000b/d), 2014-2021 58
Regional Gas Demand 59
Table : Middle East Region Gas Consumption (bcm), 2014-2021 59
Regional Gas Supply 60
Table : Middle East Region Gas Production (bcm), 2014-2021 60
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 61
Glossary Of Terms 62
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 63
Ratings Overview 63
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure 64
Indicators 64
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology 65
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology 66
BMI Methodology 68
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 68
Energy Industry 68
Cross checks 69
Sources 69
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