Oman’s tourism sector has been one of this oil rich country’s real success stories. Faced with the prospect of its oil reserves running out faster than many of its Gulf neighbours, the Sultanate has needed to broaden its economic base. The path taken by its tourism industry has been to emphasise its genuine historical and natural attractions. It is, in many ways, a foil to its glitzy neighbour in Dubai.
There are a number of key positives that favour the industry in Oman:
?? There are very significant investments being made in facilities and supporting infrastructure.
?? The economy is solidly based and in a position to support the planned investments in its tourism sector.
?? Oman Air, as an indicator for the industry is presently thriving. In its 2010 profit announcement the company reported a 40% increase in revenues – at a time of very lacklustre growth for civil aviation globally. As the shadow from the Global Financial Crisis recedes, the company has resumed its services between Salalah and Dubai and between Muscat and Zanzibar. It has also announced that it is introducing daily flights between Colombo and Muscat.
Balancing these are a few risks to the generally optimistic outlook:
?? While Oman has avoided most of the political upheaval that has rocked the region there are still questions and many turn on the position of the Sultan. Sultan Qaboos has been in power for 40 years. He has done much to modernise the country and is popular to the point of unchallengeable. However, he is now ageing and there is no apparent succession plan.
?? The country has a young demographic. More than half the population is under 25 and the labour market is struggling to absorb the large number of relatively well educated people coming into the workforce each year. The present solution of creating ever more government jobs cannot continue forever.
Overall, though, we are predicting solid growth throughout the forecast period with visitor numbers growing 5-6% each year.

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Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Oman Tourism SWOT 6
Oman Political SWOT 6
Oman Economic SWOT 7
Oman Business Environment SWOT 7
Industry Forecast Scenario 8
Arrivals 10
Table: Arrivals Data, 2007-2015 11
Accommodation 11
Table: Accommodation Data, 2007-2015 11
Expenditure 12
Table: Tourist Expenditure & Economic Impact, 2007-2015 12
Inbound Tourism 13
Table: Tourist Arrivals, 2007-2015 14
Outbound Tourism 15
Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2007-2015 16
Market Overview – Travel 17
Commercial Airlines 17
Airports 17
Road Transport 18
Ferries 18
Rail 18
Global Oil Products Price Outlook 20
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q410-Q411 (US$/bbl) 20
Table: Oil Product Price Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 (US$/bbl) 23
Market Overview – Hospitality 25
Accommodation 25
Accommodation Developments 25
Tourism Infrastructure 28
Business Environment Outlook 29
Table: Middle East And Africa Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings 29
Middle East And Africa Security Overview 29
Global Assumptions, Q311 32
Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015 32
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 33
Table: Selected Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average) 33
Developed States 34
Table: Developed States’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 34
Emerging Markets 35
Table: Emerging Markets’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 36
Consensus Forecasts 37
Table: Bloomberg Consensus GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2012 (% change y-o-y) 37
Company Profiles 38
Al-Batinah Hotels 38
Oman Air 39
BMI Methodology 41
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 41
Tourism Industry 41
Tourism Ratings – Methodology 42
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators 43
Table: Weighting of Components 44
Sources 44
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