According to BMI’s Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model, combined sales of prescription drugs and over-the-counter (OTC) medicines in Pakistan will increase from PKR136.61bn (US$1.67bn) in 2009 to PKR153.22bn (US$1.74bn) in 2010. Due to the weakening rupee, this equates to growth of 12.2% in local currency terms and 4.0% in US dollar terms.
In BMI’s Asia Pacific Business Environment Ratings (BERs) for Q410, Pakistan has dropped one place compared with the previous quarter. However, this was due to addition of a more attractive market – Sri Lanka – to our proprietary ratings system. Nevertheless, Pakistan’s BER score decreased from 34.0 out of 100 in Q310 to 32.4 in Q410, primarily due to a downgrade in the country’s pharmaceutical market. The South Asian country is now the 16th most attractive pharmaceutical market in the region, behind Bangladesh and ahead of Cambodia.
In July 2010, the chairman and CEO of GlaxoSmithKline Pakistan, M. Salman Burney, said that financial performance had been impaired by a challenging business environment. He added that medicine price controls, ongoing conflict in the northwest of the country and the weakening rupee were major concerns. BMI believes this was an understatement and that the situation in Pakistan is very concerning for pharmaceutical companies and their investors. We would also highlight the country's underwhelming real GDP prospects and our bearish stance on the rupee.
Highlighting this deteriorating situation, it emerged in June 2010 that health infrastructure in the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and the Malakand division of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa had been destroyed as the result of increasing militancy in the region. Mustaqeem Shah, an official at the FATA health directorate, stated that the region requires US$11.7mn for the reconstruction of about 104 health facilities, while Khyber Pakhtunkhwa's health department requires about US$19mn for the restoration of the 55 Swat health facilities that have been destroyed by militants.
Despite the worsening operating environment, local firm Getz Pharma announced in July 2010 that it was planning to invest PKR4bn (US$46.4mn) in the production of pegylated interferon to treat hepatitis C over the next two years. The company stated that local production of the drug, which is currently imported at a high price, would reduce the cost of treatments for hepatitis C in the country. BMI notes that this development is in line with one of our Global Core Views for the Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare industry: Drugmakers based in emerging markets will increasingly produce hard-to-manufacture pharmaceuticals.


Report Highlights

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Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Pakistan Pharmaceutical Industry SWOT 6
Pakistan Political SWOT 7
Pakistan Economic SWOT 8
Pakistan Business Environment SWOT 9
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings 10
Table: Asia Pacific Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings, Q410 10
Rewards 11
Risks 12
Pakistan – Market Summary 13
Regulatory Regime 14
Recent Regulatory Developments 15
Intellectual Property Regime 16
Shortcomings Of The Intellectual Property Environment 17
Counterfeit Drugs 18
Pricing And Reimbursement Regime 19
Table: The Formulae For Pharmaceutical Pricing In Pakistan 21
Industry Trends And Developments 22
Epidemiology 22
Non-Communicable Diseases 23
Communicable Diseases 24
Recent Public Health Developments 24
Healthcare System 25
Table: Pakistan – Key Healthcare Statistics, 2007 (‘000 people, unless otherwise stated) 26
Healthcare Insurance 27
Medical Tourism 28
Traditional Medicine 28
Retail Sector 29
Research And Development 30
International Cooperation 31
Industry Forecast Scenario 33
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast 33
Key Growth Factors – Industry 35
Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic 36
Prescription Drug Market Forecast 38
Patented Drug Market Forecast 40
Generic Drug Market Forecast 41
OTC Medicine Market Forecast 42
Medical Device Market Forecast 43
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast 44
Other Healthcare Data Forecasts 46
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario 47
Competitive Landscape 48
Pharmaceutical Sector 48
2008 Financial Snapshot Of Pakistani Drugmakers Listed On The Karachi Stock Exchange (US$mn) 48
Domestic Pharmaceutical Industry 49
Foreign Pharmaceutical Industry 50
Recent Pharmaceutical Sector Developments 50
Company Monitor 51
Indigenous Manufacturers 51
Searle Pakistan 51
Hilton Pharma 53
Efroze Chemical Industries 54
Ferozsons Laboratories 56
Getz Pharma 58
Pacific Pharmaceuticals 60
Leading Multinational Manufacturers 62
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) 62
Pfizer 65
Abbott Laboratories 67
Novartis 69
Sanofi-Aventis 71
Wyeth 73
Country Snapshot: Pakistan Demographic Data 75
Section 1: Population 75
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 75
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 76
Section 2: Education and Healthcare 76
Table: Education, 2002-2005 76
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 76
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 77
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power 78
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) 78
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012 78
BMI Methodology 79
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts 79
Pharmaceuticals Business Environment Ratings 80
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 80
Ratings Overview 80
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators 81
Weighting 82
Table: Weighting Of Components 82
Sources 82
Forecast Tables 83
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