The latest Pakistan Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 1.47% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 0.73% of supply. Regional oil use of 26.07mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010 is forecast to rise to around 30.22mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was around 7.92mn b/d 2010. It is set to decrease to 7.88mn b/d by 2015. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2010, the region was importing an average 18.15mn b/d. This total rises to an estimated 22.34mn b/d in 2015. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2015 the only net exporter will be Malaysia. In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region consumed around 513.3bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 664.9bcm is targeted for 2015. Production of 406.0bcm in 2010 should reach 556.7bcm in 2015, implying net imports falling from around 112.3bcm to 111.8bcm. Pakistan’s share of gas consumption in 2015 is put at 6.74%, while its share of production is estimated at 7.55%.
Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.2%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in the eurozone should be marginally higher than 2010, while US and Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan’s growth will be negative, reflecting the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. Our oil price assumption for 2011 is US$101.90 per barrel (bbl) for the OPEC basket, falling to US$97.50/bbl in 2012.
BMI forecasts that Pakistan’s real GDP will grow by 2.4% in 2011, with an average annual increase of 3.24% forecast for 2011-2015. Several state-controlled oil and gas companies are in the throes of privatisation, and already work with international oil companies (IOCs) in the upstream segment. We foresee oil and gas liquids production of 57,500b/d by 2015, with the country able to pump around 67,200b/d in 2011. Consumption beyond 2010 is forecast to increase by around 2% per annum to 2015, implying demand of 444,900b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be approximately 387,400b/d by 2015. Gas demand is set to rise from an estimated 39.5bcm in 2011 to 44.8bcm by 2015, requiring imports of 2.8bcm.
Between 2011 and 2020, we forecast a decrease in Pakistani oil production of 39.5%, with crude volumes falling steadily to 40,680b/d in 2020. Oil consumption between 2011 and 2020 is set to increase by 18.8%, with growth slowing to 1.5-2% per annum during the period and the country using 488,080b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise from an estimated 39.5bcm in 2010 to a possible 48.0bcm by 2020. With demand growth of 37.7%, this will require imports rising to 6.4bcm by the end of the forecast period. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts, which provide regional and country-specific projections, can be found later in this report.
Pakistan is now ranked in 10th place in BMI’s composite Risk/Reward Ratings table. It ranks sixth, above Malaysia and Papua New Guinea, in the updated upstream ratings, reflecting a reasonable resource position, better-than-average growth outlook and falling state involvement. The country now sits just one point behind Thailand, but is unlikely to make further progress over the medium term. Pakistan ranks joint 10th, alongside Malaysia, in BMI’s downstream ratings, reflecting its refinery capacity expansion plans, average oil and gas demand growth outlook and low level of retail site intensity.

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Executive Summary 7
SWOT Analysis 9
Pakistan Political SWOT 9
Pakistan Economic SWOT 10
Pakistan Business Environment SWOT 11
Pakistan Energy Market Overview 12
Regional Energy Market Overview 13
Oil Supply And Demand 13
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d) 13
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d) 14
Oil: Downstream 15
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) 15
Gas Supply And Demand 16
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm) 16
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm) 17
Liquefied Natural Gas 18
Table: Asia Pacific LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) 18
Regional Risk/Reward Ratings 19
Asia Pacific Region 19
Composite Scores 20
Table: Regional Composite Risk/Reward Rating 20
Upstream Scores 21
Table: Regional Upstream Risk/Reward Rating 21
Pakistan Upstream Rating – Overview 22
Pakistan Upstream Rating – Rewards 22
Pakistan Upstream Rating – Risks 22
Downstream Scores 23
Table: Regional Downstream Risk/Reward Rating 23
Business Environment 24
Legal Framework 24
Property Rights 24
Intellectual Property Rights 25
Corruption 25
Physical Infrastructure 26
Labour Force 27
Industrial Unrest 27
Foreign Investment Policy 28
FDI Regime 28
Foreign Trade Regime 29
Tax Regime 30
Security Risk 31
Industry Forecast Scenario 33
Oil And Gas Reserves 33
Oil Supply And Demand 33
Gas Supply And Demand 34
LNG 34
Refining And Oil Products Trade 35
Revenues/Import Costs 35
Table: Pakistan Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 36
Other Energy 37
Table: Pakistan Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 37
Key Risks To Forecast Scenario 37
Long-Term Energy Outlook 37
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 38
Oil Refineries 38
Table: Refineries In Pakistan 38
Oil Storage Facilities 39
Oil Terminals/Ports 39
Oil Pipelines 39
LNG Terminals 39
Gas Storage Facilities 40
Gas Pipelines 40
Macroeconomic Outlook 43
Table: Pakistan – Economic Activity, 2008-2015 45
Competitive Landscape 46
Executive Summary 46
Table: Key Players – Pakistan Oil And Gas Sector 47
Overview/State Role 47
Licensing And Regulation 47
Government Policy 48
Licensing Rounds 49
Table: Key Upstream Players 50
Table: Key Downstream Players 51
Company Monitor 52
Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDCL) 52
Pakistan Petroleum Ltd (PPL) 55
Pakistan State Oil (PSO) 58
Pakistan Oilfields Ltd 61
Shell Pakistan 63
BP – Summary 65
Petroleum Exploration Ltd (PEL) – Summary 66
Mari Gas Company – Summary 66
Chevron – Summary 66
Eni – Summary 67
Premier Oil – Summary 68
National Refinery Ltd – Summary 68
Pakistan Refinery Ltd – Summary 68
OMV – Summary 68
MOL – Summary 69
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts 71
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d) 71
Regional Oil Supply 72
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d) 72
Regional Refining Capacity 73
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) 73
Regional Gas Demand 74
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm) 74
Regional Gas Supply 75
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm) 75
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 76
Glossary Of Terms 77
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings 78
Ratings Overview 78
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure 79
Indicators 79
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology 79
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology 80
BMI Methodology 82
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 82
Energy Industry 83
Cross Checks 83
Sources 83
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