The latest Papua New Guinea Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 0.14% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 0.39% of supply. Regional oil use of 20.6mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 26.4mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to rise to around 29.6mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was around 7.6mn b/d in 2001 and averaged an estimated 8.0mn b/d in 2010. It is set to increase to 8.2mn b/d by 2015. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was importing an average of 12.99mn b/d. This total rose to an estimated 18.37mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 21.3mn b/d by 2015. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2015 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.
In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region consumed around 511.5bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 653.9bcm is targeted for 2015. Production of an estimated 405.8bcm in 2010 should reach 556.7bcm in 2015, implying net imports falling from around 105.7bcm to 97.2bcm. Papua New Guinea’s share of gas consumption in 2010 was an estimated 0.03%, while its share of production is put at 0.04%. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 0.03%, however the country will then account for nearly 6.5% of supply.
Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.6%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in both the US and eurozone should be marginally higher than last year, while Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan’s growth will slump to 0.7% as a result of the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. PNG’s real GDP growth in 2010 is assumed by BMI to have risen by 8.0%, with an average annual increase of 6.8% forecast for 2010-2015.
There is indirect state involvement in the upstream oil and gas industry, as the government is a minority owner of leading producer Oil Search, which is responsible for the country’s current oil and gas supply, as well as being a partner in a planned gas export scheme that is due to enter production by 2013/14. We are assuming that oil and gas liquids production will shortly rebound, but then fall to around 31,800b/d by 2015. Consumption is forecast to increase by around 5% per annum, implying demand of at least 40,600b/d by 2015. The import requirement will therefore be around 8,800b/d by the end of the forecast period.
Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting a decrease in PNG oil production of 15.1%, with crude volumes falling to 25,800b/d by the end of the period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 62.9%, with growth averaging around 5% per annum during the forecast period and the country using some 51,800b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise rapidly, from an estimated 0.2bcm in 2010 to a possible 38.0bcm by 2019/20. Even with demand growth of 135.3%, this provides export potential rising to 37.6bcm, all in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Details of BMI’s longterm oil and gas outlook can be found at the rear of this report, including regional and country-specific forecasts to 2020.
PNG now holds fifth place, ahead of the Philippines and Malaysia, in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) league table. The country is now ranked fourth, ahead of Malaysia, in BMI’s updated upstream Business Environment ratings, benefiting from its strong gas production/export potential, an attractive licensing environment and a lack of state involvement. PNG is considerably further down the league table in BMI’s downstream Business Environment ratings, reflecting its limited size as an energy market with its more restricted growth potential. It holds 14th place, above only Taiwan, but may be able to challenge Malaysia above and make a near-term move up the rankings.

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Executive Summary 5
PNG Energy Market Overview 7
Regional Energy Market Overview 9
Oil Supply And Demand 9
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d) 10
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d) 11
Oil: Downstream 12
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) 12
Gas Supply And Demand 13
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm) 13
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm) 14
Liquefied Natural Gas 15
Table: Asia Pacific LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) 15
Business Environment Ratings 16
Asia Pacific Region 16
Composite Scores 17
Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating 17
Upstream Scores 18
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating 18
PNG Upstream Rating – Overview 19
PNG Upstream Rating – Rewards 19
PNG Upstream Rating – Risks 19
Downstream Scores 20
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating 20
PNG Downstream Rating – Overview 21
PNG Downstream Rating – Rewards 21
PNG Downstream Rating – Risks 21
Industry Forecast Scenario 22
Oil And Gas Reserves 22
Oil Supply And Demand 22
Gas Supply And Demand 23
LNG 24
Refining And Oil Products Trade 25
Revenues/Import Costs 25
Table: PNG Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts 27
Other Energy 28
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario 28
Long-Term Energy Outlook 28
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 29
Oil Refineries 29
Service Stations 29
Oil Storage 29
LNG Terminals 29
Gas Pipelines 30
Competitive Landscape 31
Executive Summary 31
Table: Key Players – PNG Oil And Gas Sector 31
Table: Upstream Players 32
Table: Downstream Player 32
Overview/State Role 32
Licensing And Regulation 32
Government Policy 32
International Energy Relations 33
Company Monitor 34
Oil Search 34
InterOil 37
Esso Highlands – Summary 41
Santos ? Summary 41
Talisman Energy ? Summary 41
Horizon Oil ? Summary 42
Papua Petroleum ? Summary 42
Blue Energy – Summary 43
Eaglewood Energy – Summary 43
Others – Summary 43
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts 44
Regional Oil Demand 44
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d) 44
Regional Oil Supply 45
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d) 45
Regional Refining Capacity 46
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) 46
Regional Gas Demand 47
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm) 47
Regional Gas Supply 48
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm) 48
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 49
Glossary Of Terms 50
Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings 51
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 51
Ratings Overview 51
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure 52
Indicators 53
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology 53
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology 54
BMI Methodology 56
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 56
Energy Industry 56
Cross Checks 57
Sources 57
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