Core View:
Peruvian growth will be among the strongest in Latin America over the medium term. Our real GDP growth forecasts come in slightly below consensus as we believe central bank cooling measures will begin to take effect in H211 and 2012.
Domestic demand will be a larger drive of growth going forward. Accordingly, the telecoms, utilities and financials sectors look set to outperform in 2011.
We expect Peru’s fiscal accounts to move into surplus in 2011 based on strong revenue growth and the government’s commitment to fiscal retrenchment, although consensus is for a slight deficit.
Major Forecast Changes:
We have revised our PEN /US $ average exchange rate forecast for 2011 to PEN 2.5500/US $ from PEN 2.7200/US $ on the back of strong growth, robust investment inflows and high commodity prices. The presidential election remained wide open in early 2011. We now expect former president Alejandro Toledo to win, although a first-round victory is unlikely given the number of candidates.
Key Risks To Outlook:
Upside Risks To Inflation/Interest Rate Forecasts: Rapidly rising global commodity prices pose a risk to our monetary policy outlook (as Peru is a net food and fuel importer).
Downside Risks To Fiscal Outlook: The potential for expenditure on food and fuel subsidies to increase could delay the expected move into fiscal surplus.
Political Risks With Election Approaching: Recent strong showing for ultra-nationalist candidate Ollanta Humala suggests he may win a place in the run-off, which could unsettle markets.

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Executive Summary 5
Core View: 5
Major Forecast Changes: 5
Key Risks To Outlook: 5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Political Risk Ratings 7
Domestic Politics 8
Presidential Election: Likely Implications
Former president Alejandro Toledo looks increasingly likely to emerge victorious from Peru’s presidential
election on April 10
TABLE: Political Ov erview 8
Long-Term Political Outlook 10
Mining Disputes Main Threat To Stability
Peru’s long-term political stability is undermined by key structural risks, most prominently associated with
mining and hydrocarbon exploration in the Amazon region
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook 13
SWOT Analysis 13
BMI Economic Risk Ratings 13
Economic Activity 14
Shifting Into Consumption-Driven Growth
While surging fixed investment will continue to buoy Peruvian economic growth in the near term, economic
expansion will be driven increasingly by private consumption going forward
TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY 14
Balance Of Payments 15
FDI Inflows To Ensure Balance Of Payments Stability
Despite Peru’s persistent current account deficits, driven both by rampant import growth and profit repatriation
of foreign firms, huge surpluses in the financial account will be enough to cover the shortfalls
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT 16
Monetary Policy 17
More Tightening Ahead As Economy Booms
As we expected, on February 10 the Peruvian central bank hiked the policy rate by 25 basis points to 350%
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY 18
Exchange Rate Policy 19
PEN : Interventions To Stem Further Appreciation
TABLE: BMI PERU CURRENCY FORECASTS 19
TABLE: EXCHANGE RATE 20
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast 21
The Peruvian Economy To 2020 21
Coming Off The Export Boom
Economic growth in Peru will moderate to an average growth rate of 52% over the next 10 years
TABLE: PERU Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts 21
Chapter 4: Business Environment 23
SWOT Analysis 23
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings 23
Business Environment Outlook 24
TABLE: BMI Business And Operation Risk Ratings 24
Institutions 24
TABLE: BMI Legal Framework Rating 25
Infrastructure 26
TABLE: Labour Force Quality 26
Market Orientation 27
TABLE: LATIN AMERICA , ANNUA L FDI IN FLOWS 27
TABLE: Trade And Investment Ratings 29
Operational Risk 29
TABLE: TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS 29
Chapter 5: Key Sectors 31
Telecoms 31
TABLE: Telecoms Sector – Internet, 2008-2015 31
TABLE: Telecoms Sector – Fixed-Line, 2008-2015 32
TABLE: Telecoms Sector – Mobile, 2008-2015 33
Food & Drink 34
TABLE: Peru Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts 35
TABLE: Hot Drink Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts 36
TABLE: Soft Drink Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts 37
TABLE: Al coholic Drink Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts 37
Other Key Sectors 39
Latest Forecast Data
TABLE: PERU Autos Sector Key Indicators 39
TABLE: PERU Infrastructure Sector Key Indicators 39
TABLE: PERU Ph arma Sector Key Indicators 39
TABLE: PERU Oil and Gas Sector Key Indicators 39
TABLE: PERU freigh t Sector Key Indicators 40
Chapter 6: BMI Global Assumptions 41
Global Outlook 41
Oil Risks
TABLE: Global Assumptions 41
TABLE: GLOBAL & RE GIONA L REA L GDP GRO WTH % CHG Y-O-Y 42
TABLE: CONSENSUS FORECASTS 42
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