Peru Oil and Gas Report Q1 2012

BMI View: Peru's burgeoning oil and gas sector is undergoing a period of transition after the election of President Ollanta Humala in June 2011. Although the industry watched Humala's successful campaign with a certain degree of trepidation because of his reputation as a leftist in the mould of Hugo Chavez, his move to the centre is a positive sign for the future of the country's oil and gas sector. Moreover, we believe his political ties with local indigenous groups may lead to a breakthrough with regard to the Camisea gas controversy, which threatens to hamper the export of gas. There remains a risk that Humala will break to the left and implement policies that could undermine Peru's attractiveness as an investment destination, but we do not believe this is significant at this point in his young administration. As a result, we have retained our positive medium-term outlook for the sector.
?? BMI forecasts that oil production will more than double over the coming five years, from a forecast 156,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2011 to 350,000b/d in 2016, as investment in exploration and production (E&P) continues to rise. Over the same period strong economic growth is expected to see consumption rise from 194,000b/d to 222,000b/d. With the rate of production growth outpacing consumption, Peru will become a net exporter of oil in 2014.
?? The country’s gas sector outlook is similarly bright. Gas production is forecast to jump from 7.5bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2011 to 13bcm in 2016. Gas consumption, meanwhile, is expected to grow modestly, rising from 5.95bcm in 2011 to nearly 8.2bcm by 2016. That will mean increasing volumes of gas available for export, and we forecast liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports rising to 4.8bcm by 2016.
?? Investment and exploration success will be needed to maintain oil export volumes. We forecast oil production peaking at 350,000b/d in 2016 before slipping back to 335,000b/d by 2021. Consumption, however, is expected to continue rising, hitting 245,000b/d. That will see the country’s net export capacity fall from its peak of 127,000b/d in 2016 to around 90,000b/d in 2020. Oil exploration in Peru is at an early stage and further success over the coming years could very well improve the long-term outlook.
?? Peru performs well in BMI’s Business Environment Rating on the back of much-improved fiscal terms and a positive growth outlook. The country sits in third place in BMI’s composite Business Environment Rating (BER), which combines upstream and downstream scores. This reflects the country’s third place in our updated upstream Business Environment ratings, behind Brazil and Colombia. Its gas resources, largely privatised oil sector, licensing regime and competitive landscape work in the country’s favour. Peru sits in the middle of BMI’s downstream BER, reflecting its privatised refining segment and a relatively open but small market. It holds sixth place, behind Colombia, in the regional ratings.

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BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Peru Oil and Gas SWOT 6
Global Energy Market Outlook 7
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2009-2016 10
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d), 2009-2016 11
Regional Energy Market Outlook 12
Oil Supply And Demand 12
Table: Latin America Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2009-2016 14
Table: Latin America Oil Production (000b/d), 2009-2016 15
Table: Latin America Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d), 2009-2016 16
Gas Supply And Demand 17
Table: Latin America Gas Consumption (bcm), 2009-2016 18
Table: Latin America Gas Production (bcm), 2009-2016 18
Liquefied Natural Gas 19
Table: Latin America LNG Exports (bcm), 2009-2016 19
Peru Energy Market Overview 20
Table: Peru – Upstream Projects Database 22
Industry Forecast Scenario 23
Oil And Gas Reserves 23
Oil Supply And Demand 24
Gas Supply And Demand 25
LNG 25
Refining And Oil Products Trade 26
Revenues/Import Costs 27
Table: Peru Oil and Gas Forecasts and Historical Data, 2009-2016 27
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 29
Oil Refineries 29
Table: Refineries In Peru 29
Oil Pipelines 30
LNG Terminals 30
Gas Pipelines 31
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings 32
Latin America Region 32
Composite Scores 32
Table: Regional Composite Risk/Reward Ratings 32
Upstream Scores 33
Table: Regional Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings 33
Downstream Scores 34
Table: Regional Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings 34
Competitive Landscape 35
Executive Summary 35
Table: Key Players: Peru Oil And Gas Sector 36
Overview/State Role 37
Licensing And Regulation 37
Peru Oil & Gas Report Q1 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Government Policy 40
Licensing Rounds 41
Table: Key Upstream Players 42
Table: Key Downstream Players 42
Company Monitor 43
Petróleos Del Perú (Petroperú) 43
Repsol YPF Peru 45
Sapet Peru/CNPC – Summary 47
Maple Gas – Summary 47
Pluspetrol – Summary 47
Hunt Oil – Summary 47
Perenco – Summary 48
SK Corporation – Summary 48
Petrobras – Summary 49
ConocoPhillips – Summary 49
Savia Perú – Summary 50
Talisman Energy – Summary 50
BPZ Energy/Shell – Summary 51
Others – Summary 52
Appendix: Oil And Gas Long-Term Forecasts 54
Regional Oil Demand 54
Table: Latin America Long-term Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2014-2021 54
Regional Oil Supply 55
Table: Latin America Long-term Oil Production (000b/d), 2014-2021 55
Regional Gas Demand 56
Table: Latin America Long-Term Gas Consumption (bcm) 2014-2021 56
Regional Gas Supply 57
Table: Latin America – Long-Term Gas Production (bcm), 2014-2021 57
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 58
Glossary Of Terms 59
Table: Glossary Of Terms 59
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 61
Ratings Overview 61
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure 62
Indicators 63
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology 63
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology 64
BMI Methodology 66
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 66
Energy Industry 66
Cross checks 67
Sources 67
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