Pharmaceutical Company Outlook to 2014

Introduction

PharmaVitae universe Rx sales are forecast to expand at a 2008-14 CAGR of 1.2%, down 9.3 percentage points from 2002-08. The underlying cause of this falling rate is the much-discussed genericization of small molecule products. However, not all sectors are equally exposed, prompting a shake-up of the industry and an increasing pursuit of cost savings to sustain operating profit growth rates.

Scope

*Analysis of the sales outlook for the PharmaVitae universe of leading prescription pharma companies to 2014

*Assessment of the impact of future launches and patent expiries on sales growth compared to historical trends

*Segmentation of the market by therapy area and molecule type to assess high- and low-growth sectors of the industry

*Assessment of the impact of cost-cutting on operating profit growth in an environment of low and sometimes negative sales growth

Highlights

The increasing assault of generics on leading pharma players' staple diet of small molecule products will prompt a shake-up of the industry. Companies' success will be heavily linked to their exposure to this generic threat, with biologics and niche players enjoying the greatest insulation and therefore often the highest growth.

Many companies not in these hot sectors of the industry will be compelled to pursue cost-cutting to maintain previous levels of operating profit growth and some may resort to M&A activity to bolster sales performance and/or strategically realign themselves.

However, recourse to M&A should not be surprising when looked at in the historical context, as this has already acted as the PharmaVitae universe's primary growth driver in the period between 2002 and 2008, accounting for a greater proportion of growth than internal R&D operations.

Reasons to Purchase

*Gain a true understanding of the threats facing the pharmaceutical industry's sales performance and which sectors will be most heavily impacted

*Assess the effectiveness of cost-cutting programs on operating profit performance in a period of low sales growth

*Evaluate the impact of M&A on companies' historical performance and see how low top-line sales growth could prompt a further wave of consolidation


Report Highlights

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TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABOUT DATAMONITOR HEALTHCARE 2
About the PharmaVitae team 2
Chapter 1 Introduction 3
Data sourcing 3
Further reading 4
Chapter 2 Executive Summary 5
Key findings 5
Overview of the PharmaVitae Universe outlook to 2014 6
Introduction to the PharmaVitae Universe 7
The company outlook to 2014 10
PharmaVitae Universe launch/core/expiry analysis 15
PharmaVitae Universe molecule type analysis 19
PharmaVitae Universe M&A analysis 22
Chapter 3 The Big Pharma Outlook to 2014 31
Key findings 31
Overview of Big Pharma to 2014 32
Big Pharma company analysis 35
Big Pharma launch/core/expiry analysis 41
Big Pharma therapy area analysis 45
Big Pharma molecule type analysis 48
Chapter 4 The Mid Pharma Outlook to 2014 53
Key findings 53
Overview of Mid Pharma to 2014 54
Mid Pharma company analysis 56
Mid Pharma launch/core/expiry analysis 62
Mid Pharma therapy area analysis 66
Mid Pharma molecule type analysis 69
Chapter 5 The Biotech Outlook to 2014 74
Key findings 74
Overview of Biotech to 2014 75
Biotech company analysis 77
Biotech launch/core/expiry analysis 83
Biotech therapy area analysis 87
Biotech molecule type analysis 90
Chapter 6 The Japan Pharma Outlook to 2014 95
Key findings 95
Overview of Japan Pharma to 2014 96
Japan Pharma company analysis 99
Japan Pharma launch/core/expiry analysis 105
Japan Pharma therapy area analysis 109
Japan Pharma molecule type analysis 112
Chapter 7 Appendix 117
References 117
Abbreviations 117
Exchange rates 118
About Datamonitor 119
Datamonitor consulting 119
Disclaimer 121

TABLE OF TABLES
Table 1: Strategic overview of the PharmaVitae Universe, 2008–14 8
Table 2: PharmaVitae Universe overview by peer set, 2008–14 10
Table 3: Launch/core/expiry analysis (percentage of 2002 sales), 2002–08 16
Table 4: Launch/core/expiry analysis (percentage of 2008 sales), 2008–14 17
Table 5: Big Pharma peer set overview, 2008–14 35
Table 6: Big Pharma launch/core/expiry portfolios, 2008–14 43
Table 7: Mid Pharma peer set overview, 2008–14 56
Table 8: Mid Pharma launch/core/expiry portfolios, 2008–14 64
Table 9: Biotech peer set overview, 2008–14 77
Table 10: Biotech launch/core/expiry portfolios, 2008–14 85
Table 11: Japan Pharma peer set overview, 2008–14 99
Table 12: Japan Pharma launch/core/expiry portfolios, 2008–14 107
Table 13: Exchange rates, 2009 118

TABLE OF FIGURES
Figure 1: The PharmaVitae Explorer 3
Figure 2: PharmaVitae Universe prescription pharma sales ($bn) and year-on-year growth rate (%), 2002–14 6
Figure 3: PharmaVitae Universe prescription pharmaceutical sales ($bn) by company, 2008 12
Figure 4: PharmaVitae Universe prescription pharma sales CAGR (%) by company, 2008–14 13
Figure 5: PharmaVitae Universe prescription pharma sales ($bn) by company, 2014 14
Figure 6: PharmaVitae Universe launch/core/expiry analysis, change in sales ($bn), 2002–08 and 2008–14 15
Figure 7: PharmaVitae Universe launch/core/expiry analysis, change in sales (% 2008) by peer set, 2008–14 17
Figure 8: PharmaVitae Universe launch/core/expiry analysis, change in sales (% 2008) by company, 2008–14 18
Figure 9: PharmaVitae Universe prescription pharma sales ($bn) by molecule type, 2002–14 19
Figure 10: PharmaVitae Universe prescription pharma sales growth ($bn) by molecule type, 2008–14 20
Figure 11: PharmaVitae Universe company-by-company prescription pharma sales growth ($m) by molecule type, 2008–14 21
Figure 12: PharmaVitae Universe prescription pharma sales growth ($bn) by source, 2002–08 22
Figure 13: Big Pharma peer set prescription pharma sales and growth rate, 2002–14 32
Figure 14: Big Pharma peer set landscape, 2008–14 33
Figure 15: Big Pharma peer set companies, prescription pharma sales ($m), 2008 36
Figure 16: Big Pharma peer set companies, prescription pharma sales CAGR (%), 2008–14 37
Figure 17: Big Pharma peer set companies, prescription pharma sales ($bn), 2008–14 38
Figure 18: Big Pharma peer set companies, prescription pharma sales ($m), 2014 38
Figure 19: Big Pharma peer set growth by source of product ($m), 2002–08 40
Figure 20: Big Pharma peer set launch/core/expiry, 2002–14 41
Figure 21: Big Pharma companies launch/core/expiry ($bn), 2008–14 42
Figure 22: Big Pharma companies launch/core/expiry as % of 2008 prescription pharma sales, 2008–14 44
Figure 23: Big Pharma peer set, therapy area focus, 2002–14 45
Figure 24: Big Pharma company sales by therapy area ($m), 2008 46
Figure 25: Big Pharma company sales by therapy area ($m), 2014 47
Figure 26: Big Pharma peer set, molecule type focus, 2002–14 48
Figure 27: Big Pharma peer set growth by molecule type, 2008–14 49
Figure 28: Big Pharma companies molecule type focus (% prescription pharma sales), 2008 50
Figure 29: Big Pharma companies, growth by molecule type, 2008–14 51
Figure 30: Big Pharma companies molecule type focus (% prescription pharma sales), 2014 52
Figure 31: Mid Pharma peer set prescription pharma sales and growth rate, 2002–14 54
Figure 32: Mid Pharma peer set landscape, 2008–14 55
Figure 33: Mid Pharma peer set companies, prescription pharma sales ($m), 2008 57
Figure 34: Mid Pharma peer set companies, prescription pharma sales CAGR (%), 2008–14 58
Figure 35: Mid Pharma peer set companies, prescription pharma sales ($bn), 2008–14 59
Figure 36: Mid Pharma peer set companies, prescription pharma sales ($m), 2014 60
Figure 37: Mid Pharma peer set growth by source of product ($m), 2002–08 61
Figure 38: Mid Pharma peer set launch/core/expiry, 2002–14 62
Figure 39: Mid Pharma companies launch/core/expiry ($bn), 2008–14 63
Figure 40: Mid Pharma companies launch/core/expiry (percentage of 2008 Prescription pharma sales), 2008–14 65
Figure 41: Mid Pharma peer set, therapy area focus, 2002–14 66
Figure 42: Mid Pharma company sales by therapy area ($m), 2008 67
Figure 43: Mid Pharma company sales by therapy area ($m), 2014 68
Figure 44: Mid Pharma peer set, molecule type focus, 2002–14 69
Figure 45: Mid Pharma peer set growth by molecule type, 2008–14 70
Figure 46: Mid Pharma companies molecule type focus (% prescription pharma sales), 2008 71
Figure 47: Mid Pharma companies, growth by molecule type, 2008–14 72
Figure 48: Mid Pharma companies molecule type focus (% prescription pharma sales), 2014 73
Figure 49: Biotech peer set Prescription pharma sales and growth rate, 2002–14 75
Figure 50: Biotech peer set landscape, 2008–14 76
Figure 51: Biotech peer set companies, prescription pharma sales ($m), 2008 78
Figure 52: Biotech peer set companies, prescription pharma sales CAGR (%), 2008–14 79
Figure 53: Biotech peer set companies, prescription pharma sales ($bn), 2008–14 80
Figure 54: Biotech peer set companies, prescription pharma sales ($m), 2014 81
Figure 55: Biotech peer set growth by source of product ($m), 2002–08 82
Figure 56: Biotech peer set launch/core/expiry, ($bn), 2002–14 83
Figure 57: Biotech companies launch/core/expiry ($bn), 2008–14 84
Figure 58: Biotech companies launch/core/expiry (percentage of 2008 prescription pharma sales), 2008–14 86
Figure 59: Biotech peer set, therapy area focus, 2002–14 87
Figure 60: Biotech company sales by therapy area ($m), 2008 88
Figure 61: Biotech company sales by therapy area ($m), 2014 89
Figure 62: Biotech peer set, molecule type focus, 2002–14 90
Figure 63: Biotech peer set growth by molecule type, ($bn), 2008–14 91
Figure 64: Biotech companies molecule type focus (% prescription pharma sales), 2008 92
Figure 65: Biotech companies, growth by molecule type, ($m), 2008–14 93
Figure 66: Biotech companies molecule type focus (% prescription pharma sales), 2014 94
Figure 67: Japan Pharma peer set prescription pharma sales and growth rate, 2002–14 96
Figure 68: Japan Pharma peer set landscape, 2008–14 97
Figure 69: Japan Pharma peer set companies, prescription pharma sales ($m), 2008 100
Figure 70: Japan Pharma peer set companies, prescription pharma sales CAGR (%), 2008–14 101
Figure 71: Japan Pharma peer set companies, prescription pharma sales ($bn), 2008–14 102
Figure 72: Japan Pharma peer set companies, prescription pharma sales ($m), 2014 103
Figure 73: Japan Pharma peer set growth by source of product ($m), 2002–08 104
Figure 74: Japan Pharma peer set launch/core/expiry, ($bn), 2002–14 105
Figure 75: Japan Pharma companies launch/core/expiry ($bn), 2008–14 106
Figure 76: Japan Pharma companies launch/core/expiry (percentage of 2008 prescription pharma sales), 2008–14 108
Figure 77: Japan Pharma peer set, therapy area focus, 2002–14 109
Figure 78: Japan Pharma company sales by therapy area ($m), 2008 110
Figure 79: Japan Pharma company sales by therapy area ($m), 2014 111
Figure 80: Japan Pharma peer set, molecule type focus, 2002–14 112
Figure 81: Japan Pharma peer set growth by molecule type, ($m), 2008–14 113
Figure 82: Japan Pharma companies molecule type focus (% prescription pharma sales), 2008 114
Figure 83: Japan Pharma companies, growth by molecule type, ($m), 2008–14 115
Figure 84: Japan Pharma companies molecule type focus (% prescription pharma sales), 2014 116


[Inhaltsverzeichnis ausblenden]

TABLE OF TABLES
Table 1: Strategic overview of the PharmaVitae Universe, 2008–14 8
Table 2: PharmaVitae Universe overview by peer set, 2008–14 10
Table 3: Launch/core/expiry analysis (percentage of 2002 sales), 2002–08 16
Table 4: Launch/core/expiry analysis (percentage of 2008 sales), 2008–14 17
Table 5: Big Pharma peer set overview, 2008–14 35
Table 6: Big Pharma launch/core/expiry portfolios, 2008–14 43
Table 7: Mid Pharma peer set overview, 2008–14 56
Table 8: Mid Pharma launch/core/expiry portfolios, 2008–14 64
Table 9: Biotech peer set overview, 2008–14 77
Table 10: Biotech launch/core/expiry portfolios, 2008–14 85
Table 11: Japan Pharma peer set overview, 2008–14 99
Table 12: Japan Pharma launch/core/expiry portfolios, 2008–14 107
Table 13: Exchange rates, 2009 118


TABLE OF FIGURES
Figure 1: The PharmaVitae Explorer 3
Figure 2: PharmaVitae Universe prescription pharma sales ($bn) and year-on-year growth rate (%), 2002–14 6
Figure 3: PharmaVitae Universe prescription pharmaceutical sales ($bn) by company, 2008 12
Figure 4: PharmaVitae Universe prescription pharma sales CAGR (%) by company, 2008–14 13
Figure 5: PharmaVitae Universe prescription pharma sales ($bn) by company, 2014 14
Figure 6: PharmaVitae Universe launch/core/expiry analysis, change in sales ($bn), 2002–08 and 2008–14 15
Figure 7: PharmaVitae Universe launch/core/expiry analysis, change in sales (% 2008) by peer set, 2008–14 17
Figure 8: PharmaVitae Universe launch/core/expiry analysis, change in sales (% 2008) by company, 2008–14 18
Figure 9: PharmaVitae Universe prescription pharma sales ($bn) by molecule type, 2002–14 19
Figure 10: PharmaVitae Universe prescription pharma sales growth ($bn) by molecule type, 2008–14 20
Figure 11: PharmaVitae Universe company-by-company prescription pharma sales growth ($m) by molecule type, 2008–14 21
Figure 12: PharmaVitae Universe prescription pharma sales growth ($bn) by source, 2002–08 22
Figure 13: Big Pharma peer set prescription pharma sales and growth rate, 2002–14 32
Figure 14: Big Pharma peer set landscape, 2008–14 33
Figure 15: Big Pharma peer set companies, prescription pharma sales ($m), 2008 36
Figure 16: Big Pharma peer set companies, prescription pharma sales CAGR (%), 2008–14 37
Figure 17: Big Pharma peer set companies, prescription pharma sales ($bn), 2008–14 38
Figure 18: Big Pharma peer set companies, prescription pharma sales ($m), 2014 38
Figure 19: Big Pharma peer set growth by source of product ($m), 2002–08 40
Figure 20: Big Pharma peer set launch/core/expiry, 2002–14 41
Figure 21: Big Pharma companies launch/core/expiry ($bn), 2008–14 42
Figure 22: Big Pharma companies launch/core/expiry as % of 2008 prescription pharma sales, 2008–14 44
Figure 23: Big Pharma peer set, therapy area focus, 2002–14 45
Figure 24: Big Pharma company sales by therapy area ($m), 2008 46
Figure 25: Big Pharma company sales by therapy area ($m), 2014 47
Figure 26: Big Pharma peer set, molecule type focus, 2002–14 48
Figure 27: Big Pharma peer set growth by molecule type, 2008–14 49
Figure 28: Big Pharma companies molecule type focus (% prescription pharma sales), 2008 50
Figure 29: Big Pharma companies, growth by molecule type, 2008–14 51
Figure 30: Big Pharma companies molecule type focus (% prescription pharma sales), 2014 52
Figure 31: Mid Pharma peer set prescription pharma sales and growth rate, 2002–14 54
Figure 32: Mid Pharma peer set landscape, 2008–14 55
Figure 33: Mid Pharma peer set companies, prescription pharma sales ($m), 2008 57
Figure 34: Mid Pharma peer set companies, prescription pharma sales CAGR (%), 2008–14 58
Figure 35: Mid Pharma peer set companies, prescription pharma sales ($bn), 2008–14 59
Figure 36: Mid Pharma peer set companies, prescription pharma sales ($m), 2014 60
Figure 37: Mid Pharma peer set growth by source of product ($m), 2002–08 61
Figure 38: Mid Pharma peer set launch/core/expiry, 2002–14 62
Figure 39: Mid Pharma companies launch/core/expiry ($bn), 2008–14 63
Figure 40: Mid Pharma companies launch/core/expiry (percentage of 2008 Prescription pharma sales), 2008–14 65
Figure 41: Mid Pharma peer set, therapy area focus, 2002–14 66
Figure 42: Mid Pharma company sales by therapy area ($m), 2008 67
Figure 43: Mid Pharma company sales by therapy area ($m), 2014 68
Figure 44: Mid Pharma peer set, molecule type focus, 2002–14 69
Figure 45: Mid Pharma peer set growth by molecule type, 2008–14 70
Figure 46: Mid Pharma companies molecule type focus (% prescription pharma sales), 2008 71
Figure 47: Mid Pharma companies, growth by molecule type, 2008–14 72
Figure 48: Mid Pharma companies molecule type focus (% prescription pharma sales), 2014 73
Figure 49: Biotech peer set Prescription pharma sales and growth rate, 2002–14 75
Figure 50: Biotech peer set landscape, 2008–14 76
Figure 51: Biotech peer set companies, prescription pharma sales ($m), 2008 78
Figure 52: Biotech peer set companies, prescription pharma sales CAGR (%), 2008–14 79
Figure 53: Biotech peer set companies, prescription pharma sales ($bn), 2008–14 80
Figure 54: Biotech peer set companies, prescription pharma sales ($m), 2014 81
Figure 55: Biotech peer set growth by source of product ($m), 2002–08 82
Figure 56: Biotech peer set launch/core/expiry, ($bn), 2002–14 83
Figure 57: Biotech companies launch/core/expiry ($bn), 2008–14 84
Figure 58: Biotech companies launch/core/expiry (percentage of 2008 prescription pharma sales), 2008–14 86
Figure 59: Biotech peer set, therapy area focus, 2002–14 87
Figure 60: Biotech company sales by therapy area ($m), 2008 88
Figure 61: Biotech company sales by therapy area ($m), 2014 89
Figure 62: Biotech peer set, molecule type focus, 2002–14 90
Figure 63: Biotech peer set growth by molecule type, ($bn), 2008–14 91
Figure 64: Biotech companies molecule type focus (% prescription pharma sales), 2008 92
Figure 65: Biotech companies, growth by molecule type, ($m), 2008–14 93
Figure 66: Biotech companies molecule type focus (% prescription pharma sales), 2014 94
Figure 67: Japan Pharma peer set prescription pharma sales and growth rate, 2002–14 96
Figure 68: Japan Pharma peer set landscape, 2008–14 97
Figure 69: Japan Pharma peer set companies, prescription pharma sales ($m), 2008 100
Figure 70: Japan Pharma peer set companies, prescription pharma sales CAGR (%), 2008–14 101
Figure 71: Japan Pharma peer set companies, prescription pharma sales ($bn), 2008–14 102
Figure 72: Japan Pharma peer set companies, prescription pharma sales ($m), 2014 103
Figure 73: Japan Pharma peer set growth by source of product ($m), 2002–08 104
Figure 74: Japan Pharma peer set launch/core/expiry, ($bn), 2002–14 105
Figure 75: Japan Pharma companies launch/core/expiry ($bn), 2008–14 106
Figure 76: Japan Pharma companies launch/core/expiry (percentage of 2008 prescription pharma sales), 2008–14 108
Figure 77: Japan Pharma peer set, therapy area focus, 2002–14 109
Figure 78: Japan Pharma company sales by therapy area ($m), 2008 110
Figure 79: Japan Pharma company sales by therapy area ($m), 2014 111
Figure 80: Japan Pharma peer set, molecule type focus, 2002–14 112
Figure 81: Japan Pharma peer set growth by molecule type, ($m), 2008–14 113
Figure 82: Japan Pharma companies molecule type focus (% prescription pharma sales), 2008 114
Figure 83: Japan Pharma companies, growth by molecule type, ($m), 2008–14 115
Figure 84: Japan Pharma companies molecule type focus (% prescription pharma sales), 2014 116

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