BMI’s latest Philippines Petrochemicals Report expects a weakening external environment for output in H211, which will undermine the contribution of a strong first half to annual growth.
In May 2011 the value of production index (VaPI) for plastic products was up 19.2% y-o-y, while the volume of production index (VoPI) was up 11.7%. The VaPI and VoPI for total chemicals was up 16.9% and 15.2% respectively. H111 results from Petron indicate that petrochemicals output growth was led by exports, with sales of petrochemicals mostly to overseas markets, rising to 1.7mn barrels.
In H111 leading oil industry producer Petron Corporation reported a 104% y-o-y rise in net income to PHP6.0bn, despite some profit softening in Q211 due to slower market prices and the weather-induced slump in demand. Comparative figures have been lower though than last year at PHP1.6bn in Q211 and PHP1.9bn in Q111. Growth came after a 16.9% y-o-y rise in revenues to PHP134.9bn, assisted by a 54% rise in oil export sales and higher petrochemicals margins. Sales of petrochemicals such as propylene, benzene, toulene and mixed xylene, mostly to overseas markets, rose to 1.7mn barrels.
A key risk to our outlook would be weaker-than-expected demand for Philippine exports from earthquake-stricken Japan, which makes up about 18.0% of total export share. We do not exclude the possibility that the eventual growth outturn may be worse in H211 than H111, especially since we believe the Japanese recovery will be slow and long, with downside risks dominating. We highlight the downside risks stemming from our already cautious view because of the effect of the Middle East turmoil on private consumption in the Philippines, as weaker-than-expected remittance inflows and export demand from developed economies may lead to slower economic expansion.
Until a domestic olefins source is developed, the main weakness in the Philippines’ petrochemicals industry will remain its dependence on imported ethylene and propylene, as well as aromatics and their derivatives. The production of speciality chemicals and propylene is likely to expand as Petron sets up new petrochemicals plants in the country, with the proposed new units likely to bolster overall petrochemicals production by 2015. However, no firm plans have been made so BMI is holding back on building Petron’s plans into its forecasts. The situation may change in the coming months, especially if the economic situation forces the company to shelve some of its capital expenditure plans.

[Studien Infos ausblenden]

Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Philippines Petrochemicals Industry SWOT 6
Philippines Political SWOT 6
Philippines Economic SWOT 7
Philippines Business Environment SWOT 8
Global Petrochemicals Overview 9
Table: World Ethylene Production By Country, 2010 And 2015 (‘000 tonnes capacity) 9
Global Oil Products Price Outlook 15
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, 2011 (US$/BBL) 16
Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts, 2011-2015 (US$/BBL) 18
Emerging Asia Petrochemicals Overview 19
Philippines Market Overview 23
Market Structure 23
Industry Trends and Developments 25
Trade 26
Upstream 27
Business Environment 29
Petrochemicals Business Environment Ratings 29
Table: Asia Pacific Petrochemicals Business Environment Ratings 29
Forecast Scenario 32
Petrochemicals Forecasts 32
Table: Value Of Production Index By Segment, 2010-2011 (% y-o-y) 32
Table: Philippines’ Petrochemicals Sector, 2008-2015 (‘000tpa, unless otherwise stated) 34
Macroeconomic Forecast 35
Table: Philippines - Economic Activity, 2008-2015 37
Company Monitor 38
BASF Philippines 38
JG Summit Petrochemicals Corp 39
PNOC Petrochemical Development 41
Petron Corporation 43
Tosoh 46
Glossary of Terms 47
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms 47
BMI Methodology 48
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 48
Chemicals and Petrochemicals Industry 48
Cross Checks 49

Business Environment Ratings 50
Table: Petrochemicals Business Environment Indicators And Rationale 51
Weighting 52
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 52
[Inhaltsverzeichnis ausblenden]