We have incorporated the latest figures provided by the Philippine Long Distance Telephone Company (PLDT), Globe Telecom and Digital Telecommunications Philippines (Digitel) into the forecast scenarios, with minor changes in our mobile and ARPU expectations. BMI believes that the mobile subscriber growth in the Philippines is experiencing a slowdown due to the fact that the market is approaching saturation. We forecast 94.8mn mobile subscribers by end-2011, representing a penetration rate of 99.3%, and we envisage this number to increase to 115.1mn in 2015. Meanwhile, ARPU rates are expected to continue to trend downwards in light of the prevalence of prepaid subscribers and operators embarking on aggressive pricing strategies to offset the slowing growth momentum.
At the time of writing, the acquisition of Digitel by PLDT has yet to resolve. Both companies have agreed to extend the closing date of the transaction by one month to July 30 in order to overcome the final hurdle in the form of the National Telecommunications Commission (NTC). The NTC has scheduled hearings on July 5-7 and 12-14, and will evaluate the potential impact of the merger between the Philippines’ largest and third ranked mobile operators.
In order to offset declining opportunities in the Philippines telecoms market, and mitigate uncertainties arising from its pending purchase of Digitel, PLDT has announced plans to become an MVNO in at least two other countries, expanding its international presence beyond Hong Kong and Singapore. The business of PLDT Global, the international sales and marketing arm of PLDT, has been relatively successful after the company achieved a penetration rate of around 30.1% in a mere few years, and we believe that this gives PLDT Global the confidence to venture into more lucrative markets.
The Philippines bounced back to 11th position in BMI’s latest Asia Pacific telecoms business environment ratings, which made the country one of the better-placed emerging markets in the region. The Philippines' real GDP growth came in at 4.9% y-o-y in Q111, slowing substantially from the 6.1% print recorded in the preceding quarter. The latest figure was in line with our core view that the Philippine economy will register a moderation in headline growth, following last year's strong performance, when the economy expanded by 7.6%. While investment-driven economic expansion will remain an important theme in 2011, especially with President Benigno Aquino III's pro-foreign direct investment initiatives, we still expect a deceleration in capital formation expansion, due to the high base in 2010.
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Executive Summary 7
SWOT Analysis 8
Philippines Wireline (Fixed-Line And Broadband) Industry SWOT 8
Philippines Mobile Industry SWOT 9
Philippines Political SWOT 10
Philippines Economic SWOT 11
Philippines Business Environment SWOT 12
Business Environment Ratings 13
Asia Pacific 13
Asia Pacific Business Environment Ratings, Q411 17
The Philippines 18
Industry Forecast Scenario 19
Mobile 19
Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 19
ARPU 21
Table: Smart Communications and Globe Telecom ARPU And Subscriber Mix figures, 2008-2015 21
Fixed Line 23
Table: Telecoms Sector - Fixed Line - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 23
Internet 25
Table: Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 25
Market Data Analysis 27
Mobile 27
Market Overview 27
Table: Philippines Wireless Net Additions, Q111 27
Table: Leading Mobile Operators’ Prepaid Vs Postpaid Net ARPU (PHP), 2010-2011 30
3G 31
Smart Communications 33
Globe Telecom 34
Digitel (Sun Cellular) 35
Mobile Contract Wins 36
Table: Mobile Contract Wins, 2008-2010 36
Mobile Operator Data 37
Table: Philippines Market Overview 37
Smart Communications 38
Table: Globe Telecom 39
Table: Sun Cellular 41
Mobile Content 42
Regional Outlook 42
Country Outlook 43
SMS 43
Mobile TV 45
Mobile Money 46
Mobile Banking 46
Value-Added Services Timeline 48
Table: Selected VAS Services Launched, 2008-2010 48
Fixed Line 50
PLDT 50
Table: PLDT Fixed-Line Revenue Breakdown, Q110 Vs Q111 (PHPmn) 51
Digitel 52
BayanTel 53
Innove Communications 54
Eastern Communications 54
Broadband 55
Table: A Comparison Of Major Broadband Operator Subscriber Figures, Q110 Vs Q111 (mn) 55
PLDT 55
Innove 56
BayanTel 57
Mobile Broadband Services 58
WiMAX 59
Submarine Cables 62
ePLDT 64
Wireline (Fixed-Line And Broadband) Developments 65
Table: Wireline Developments, 2008-2010 65
Regulatory Environment And Industry Development 67
Philippines: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities 68
3G Licensing 69
Industry Developments 71
Competitive Landscape 74
Competitor Analysis 74
Table: Key Players – Philippines Telecoms Sector 74
Table: Philippines Selected Operators Financial Indicators, 2004-2010 74
Company Monitor 75
Huawei Technologies 75
Table: Vendors' Financial Performance (US$mn), 2009-2010 75
Table: Selected Huawei Contract Wins, 2010-2011 78
Operator Profiles 82
Philippine Long Distance Telephone Company (PLDT) 82
Smart Communications 87
Globe Telecom 93
Digital Telecommunications Philippines Inc (Digitel) 98
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview 101
Fixed Line 101
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview 101
Mobile 102
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview 102
Broadband 103
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview .103
Country Snapshot: Philippines Demographic Data 104
Section 1: Population .104
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 104
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 105
Section 2: Education And Healthcare 105
Table: Education, 2002-2005 .105
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 .105
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power 106
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 106
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2007-2012 (US$) .106
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2004-2006 .107
Glossary Of Terms 108
Table: Glossary Of Terms .108
BMI Methodology 109
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .109
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts .109
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings .111
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 111
Ratings System 111
Indicators 111
Table: Ratings Indicators .112
Weighting 113
Table: Weighting Of Indicators .113
Sources 113
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