Poland remains in pole position in our latest business environment ratings for the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region, which ranks the 15 main markets. Underlining BMI’s economic preference for domestic demand stories, Poland – in addition to Russia, Hungary and Turkey – continues to be one of our favourite markets from a long-term domestic demand point of view, which is expected to provide a solid base for dynamic growth of food and drink consumption values, especially given the expansion of modern retail formats. Additionally, Poland is seen as the most balanced regional market, with its risk and reward profiles broadly comparable.
Headline Industry Data
?? 2011 per capita food consumption growth in local currency = 7.98%; forecast compound annual growth to 2015 = 7.10%.
?? 2011 beer volume sales = 0.84%; forecast compound annual growth to 2015 = 1.30%.
?? 2011 mass grocery retail sales = 12.85%; forecast compound annual growth to 2015 = 11.50%.
Key Company Trends
Retail Flying – BMI has had a very constructive view on Polish retail for quite some time now. On the macro side, the country has done so well over the past few years, having avoided the kind of cataclysmic downturn in consumer spending that hit so much of emerging Europe in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. This has of course been retail positive with the growth trends that were picking up such a head of steam before the downturn having not been overly affected, but helped by the fact that most Poles are pretty keen on discount stores.
A discussion about Poland, retail and growth takes us to Portugal first where the owner of Poland's lead discounter Biedronka is based. Jerónimo Martins bought Biedronka in 1997 in what can now only be described as a masterstroke. If Jerónimo has managed to thoroughly outperform Portugal's PSI20 index (of which it makes up 12.2%) over the past year, as the first chart illustrates, then this is thanks largely to Poland. As the third chart shows, Poland has been the clear focus with its contribution to overall sales gazumping Portugal's over the past few years.

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BMI Industry View 7
Poland Food Industry SWOT 8
Poland Drink Industry SWOT 9
Poland Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT 10
Business Environment 11
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views 11
Table: BMI Food & Drink Core Views 16
CEE Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings 17
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q311 20
Poland’s Food And Drink Business Environment Ratings 21
Macroeconomic Outlook 22
Table: Poland - GDP Contribution To Growth 26
Industry Forecast Scenario 27
Consumer Outlook 27
Food 30
Food Consumption 30
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data And Forecasts 31
Confectionery 31
Table: Value/Volume Sales of Canned Food & Confectionery – Historical Data & Forecasts 32
Drink 33
Beer 33
Table: Poland Beer Sector – Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts 33
Soft Drinks 34
Table: Poland Soft Beverages – Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts 35
Hot Drinks 36
Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales Indicators – Historical Data And Forecasts 36
Mass Grocery Retail 37
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Value Sales By Format – Historical Data And Forecasts 40
Table: Poland Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data And Forecasts 40
Trade 41
Table: Poland Food, Drink And Tobacco Trade Indicators (US$mn) – Historical Data And Forecasts 41
Food 42
Key Industry Trends And Developments 42
Companies To Pursue Expansion 42
Rising Interest In Private Brands 42
Kraft Forced To Cut Down Exposure As Part Of Cadbury Takeover 43
Market Overview 43
Food Consumption 43
Food Production 44
Confectionery 45
Canned Food 46
Frozen And Chilled Food 46
Trade 47
Agriculture 48
Meat Processing Industry 49
Dairy Industry 50
Organic Farming 51
Drink 52
Key Industry Trends And Developments 52
Alcoholic Drinks Sales Affected By Downturn And Excise Hikes… 52
…But CEDC Goes from Strength to Strength 52
Multinationals Aiming Big 52
Market Overview 53
Alcoholic Drinks 53
Beer 53
Wine 55
Spirits 56
Soft Drinks 57
Hot Drinks 60
Mass Grocery Retail 62
Key Industry Trends And Developments 62
Key Retailers Competing On Store Growth As Carrefour Re-Vamps Strategy 62
MGR Consolidation Continues Apace 62
Market Overview 63
Leading Retailers 65
Table Poland Structure Of The Mass Grocery Retail Market By Value (US$bn) 68
Table: Structure of Poland’s Mass Grocery Retail Sector – Estimated Sales Value By Format (PLNbn) 68
Competitive Landscape 69
Table: Key Players – Poland’s Food Sector (2010) 69
Table 5: Key Players – Poland’s Drink Sector (2010) 70
Table: Key Players – Poland’s MGR Sector (2010) 71
Company Analysis 73
Food 73
Nestlé Polska 73
Agros Nova 74
Danone Polska 75
Makarony Polskie 76
Drink 77
Central European Distribution Corporation (CEDC) 77
Grupa Zywiec (Heineken) 79
Carlsberg Polska 80
SABMiller 81
Kofola-Hoop (Kofola Group) 82
Mass Grocery Retail 83
Metro Polska 83
Biedronka (Jerónimo Martins) 85
Tesco Polska 87
BMI Food & Drink Methodology 89
Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings 89
Ratings Methodology 89
Ratings Overview 89
Ratings System 89
Indicators 89
Table: Limits Of Potential Returns 90
Table: Risks To Realisation Of Potential Returns 91
Weighting 92
Table: Weighting 92
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary 93
Food & Drink 93
Mass Grocery Retail 93
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing 95
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 95
Sourcing 96
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