Following 2010, in which the recovery began in rail freight, with an estimated growth in all other modes except one, 2011 will see further growth in most of the freight modes, with a return of air freight volumes to pre-downturn levels.
Total trade is projected to pick up, with our Country Risk desk forecasting a year-on-year (y-o-y) increase of 8.45% in 2011 following growth of 10.46% in 2010.
Road freight is to continue to dominate the freight transport sector and is projected to grow by 5.3% in 2011. The sector defied the downturn and so far appears to have defied EU pledges of a reduction in road haulage across the region. That is not to say, however, that road freight's market share is safe.
BMI notes that rail is the likeliest candidate in Poland's freight transport mix to benefit from any diversification away from road. BMI notes that major rail freight player DB Schenker is expanding its presence in Poland and that as this and other international companies continue to expand into the country's rail freight sector, its competitiveness will increase.
Headline Industry Data
?? 2011 air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 9.6%;
?? 2011 rail freight is forecast to grow by 6.7%;
?? 2011 port of Gdansk throughput is forecast to grow by 9.0%;
?? 2011 road freight is forecast to grow by 5.3%;
?? 2011 inland waterway freight to fall by 9.9%;
?? 2011 total real trade growth is forecast at 8.5%.
Key Industry Trends
PKP Cargo Privatisation Gathers Steam BMI is unsurprised that the sale of a stake in PKP Cargo is attracting considerable interest, with several potential investors looking to increase their exposure to this high-growth market. PKP is Europe's secondbiggest rail freight carrier, accounting for 55.4% of rail payloads in Poland, and is estimated to be worth US$1bn. BMI notes that Poland is one of a number of European countries seeking to privatise their rail companies. DB Schenker Rail Polska Rolls Into The Baltics DB Schenker's Polish operation, DB Schenker Rail Polska, and Lithuania's Lietuvos Gelezinkeliai have signed a cooperation agreement in May 2011. The service to Lithuania will give DB Schenker potential entry to the planned Rail Baltica project, and while the first traffic on the route is timber, there is the potential to develop a container service.
DCT Gdansk Continues Rapid Growth DCT Gdansk is continuing its rapid growth on back of strong Polish macro fundamentals, having handled its millionth 20-foot equivalent unit (TEU) just three years after opening. BMI notes that Gdansk has already become Poland's largest port in terms of both containers and total tonnage, knocking the port of Gdynia into second place. We believe that Gdansk's profile in the global shipping sector will continue to rise, with the port now a stop on a direct Asia-Europe service rather than being a feeder call.
Risks To Outlook
BMI highlights freight modes exposed to the transport of containers as the forecast areas which have risk to the upside as it is these modes of transport which will benefit from the increase of container volumes on the back of a strengthening consumer base within Poland which is set to drive the country's economic growth. We also highlight upside risk to our rail freight forecast stemming from the fact that EU is pushing for more freight to be transported by the freight mode because of the environmental and congestion concerns surrounding road freight sector.
We note Poland's strategic location as a possible gateway for trade into central and eastern Europe. Its position has not gone unnoticed with the Chinese port of Ningbo showing interest in investing in the port of Gdansk. Should Poland's role as a maritime gateway develop, this will have a cascade effect on other areas of the country's freight network, with road and rail freight to benefit as the conduit of trade from the port to the country's neighbours.
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