The Q411 update to the Poland Telecommunications Market report contains the latest available data from Poland's major fixed-line, broadband, mobile and pay-TV operators and service providers. In most cases this data covers the period up to the end of June 2011. However, a minority of operators are yet to report results, in which case BMI estimated figures based on our analysis of prevailing market trends. This data forms the basis of our forecasts for the fixed-line, broadband and mobile subscriber markets, as well as for mobile ARPUs which were introduced in the previous quarterly report.
The fixed-line market continued to decline in popularity (and will continue to do so as consumers replace their narrowband accesses with fixed and mobile broadband connections),. However, one bright spot for the fixed-line market is the continued success of converged services. UPC, Poland's largest cable operator, reported 17.4% growth in fixed-line subscriptions Q210 to Q211. This growth was built on multi-play packages, and with Telekomunikacja Polska (TPSA), Netia and Cyfrowy Polsat becoming increasingly multi-play oriented there are more positive signs in an otherwise decreasing market.
Mobile and broadband services continue to perform strongly in Poland. TPSA, which is managed by France Telecom and provides many of its most popular services under the Orange brand, reflects these trends in its financial and operational results. Its retail fixed-line business continues to decline and its wholesale line rental (WLR) business continues to grow, but is beginning to show signs of fatigue as consumers increasingly move to dedicated broadband connections. As it controls the majority of the country's last mile plant, TPSA also dominates the fixed broadband market with its ADSL-based services prevailing.
The mobile market was boosted considerably in H111 as all operators managed positive subscriber growth in Q211. Orange continued to add hundreds of new customers through its affiliations with MVNO operators, Polkomtel maintained growth with 81,000 net additions, following large losses in the first three quarters of 2010. Meanwhile, newcomers such as P4 and Aero2 began to compete aggressively with the established players. P4 reported particularly strong growth figures, with net additions of 837,000 in H111. However, these are unverified figures and as such we remain sceptical about the sustainability of growth in future. The reduction of mobile termination rates (MTRs) helped make inter-network calls cheaper and this may have attracted more subscribers into the market, but this has dampened top-line revenues, which filters down into ARPUs and shows that earnings from users are far from rosy. We are concerned that the focus on the lower end of the market means operators are merely stockpiling more short-term customers that do not remain active for long and double up on the subscriber figures being reported, skewing our view of the market. However, it is clear there are few new organic growth opportunities available and we forecast flat growth in 2012 followed by a slow rate of decline through to the end of 2015.
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Executive Summary 9
SWOT Analysis 11
Mobile SWOT Analysis 11
Wireline SWOT Analysis 13
Broadband SWOT Analysis 15
Political 17
Economic 18
Business Environment 19
Business Environment Analysis 20
Central And Eastern Europe Business Environment Ratings 20
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Business Environment Ratings, Q411 24
Industry Business Environment Overview 25
Industry Forecast 27
Mobile 27
Table: Table: Telecoms Sector -- Mobile -- Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 27
ARPU 29
Table: Poland - Mobile Operators' ARPU (PLN), 2008 - 2015 29
Fixed Line 31
Table: Table: Telecoms Sector -- Fixed Line -- Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 31
Broadband 33
Table: Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 33
Market Data Analysis 35
Mobile 35
Market Leadership 36
Table: Table: Poland Wireless Market, June 2011 37
Net Additions 40
Table: Table: Poland Wireless Net Additions Market, Q111 41
Subscriber Mix 41
Converged Services 43
ARPU 44
MVNOs 45
Table: Table: Mobile Contract Wins 46
Table: Mobile: Poland Mobile Market Overview 48
Table: T-Mobile 48
Table: Polkomtel 49
Table: Orange Poland 51
CEE Mobile Content Outlook 52
Market Data Analysis 58
Long-Term Evolution 59
Mobile Tags 61
Mobile Advertising 61
Summary 62
Fixed Line 63
Netia And Dialog 66
Greater Liberalisation 67
Broadband 70
Table: Table: Polish Fixed Broadband Access Market, March 2011 71
WiMAX 72
CDMA 73
Mobile Broadband 74
Pay TV 77
Table: Table: Wireline Developments, 2008-2009 78
Converged Services Operator Tables 79
Table: TPSA 79
Table: UPC 80
Table: Netia 81
Regulatory Development 83
Table: Poland: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities 83
Recent Regulatory Developments 85
Central And Eastern Europe Vendor Profile 87
Rough CEEs 88
Cause For Optimism 90
Competitive Landscape 92
Key Players 92
Table: Enter table header 92
Table: Selected Operators Financial Indicators (US$mn) 93
Operator Profiles 94
TPSA 94
Netia 98
Era GSM 102
Orange Poland 106
Polkomtel (Plus GSM) 109
Market Overview 113
Mobile 113
Table: Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview 113
Fixed Line 114
Table: Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview 114
Broadband 115
Table: Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview 115
Demographic Data 117
Section 1: Population 117
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 117
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 117
Section 2: Education And Healthcare 118
Table: Education, 2002-2005 118
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 118
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power 118
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 118
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) 119
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 120
Glossary 121
Table: Glossary Of Terms 121
Methodology 123
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts 123
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings 124
Table: Ratings Indicators 125
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 126
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