2010 A Better Year For Polish Tourism According to data from the Polish Institute of Tourism (Intur), there were 58.3mn foreign visitor arrivals into Poland during 2010 – of which 12.5mn were tourist arrivals – reflecting increases of 8% and 5% year-on-year (y-o-y) respectively. (Note: 2010 estimates from Intur differ from BMI’s estimates this quarter, which are calculated based on data from G?ówny Urz?d Statystyczny.) Demand returned to the sector following the challenges of 2009, with BMI believing that 2011 can see further growth in tourist numbers as demand increases from neighbouring countries. Beyond this point, 2012 should also prove a boon year for Poland’s tourism industry, as the country is co-host of the UEFA 2012 Football Championships with Ukraine.
Also boosting Poland’s tourism prospects in the years ahead was its successful partnering of the ITB Tourism fair in March 2011. The fair was an opportunity for Poland to sell its tourism offering to the world just one year ahead of UEFA 2012, with Director of the Polish Tourism office in Germany, Jan Wawrzyniak, stating that ‘there is now even greater interest in Poland’ as a result.
We are currently targeting an increase in tourist arrivals of 13.4% between 2011 and 2015, indicating that Poland should be welcoming some 14.49mn tourists by 2015 (note: tourism arrivals data differs from Arrivals table on p. 10; see below methodology). Tourist expenditure should increase by a much larger 65.5%, to US$24.88bn. This sharp increase in revenue figures reflects what we expect to be high levels of tourist spend during 2012, as football fans flock to Poland to attend Euro 2012.
Greater Clarity On Inbound And Outbound Tourism Figures For 2011 BMI has added new information on both inbound and outbound tourism within Poland. Specifically, we discuss inbound and outbound tourism solely for vacation purposes (as opposed to using a holiday as a chance to look for jobs abroad, for example).
Previously, we had tended to look solely at foreign arrivals at border crossings. However, from our research carried out over recent months, we have seen that there were some problems with adopting solely this approach. As an example, although a total of 9.24mn Czech citizens entered Poland during 2010 (second only to Germany in terms of overall numbers of people entering the country) only 175,000 of these people entered as tourists (as defined by Intur). Similarly, a total of 6.01mn Slovak citizens entered Poland during 2010, but only 95,000 of this total were coming to Poland specifically as tourists. Counting ‘tourist arrivals’ and ‘tourist departures’ enables us to provide a more accurate analysis of which are the key tourism source and destination markets for Poland.
LOT Still In The Red Polish national carrier LOT Polish Airways remains in the red, despite an 8% increase in the number of passengers carried over 2010 to 4.5mn. In June 2011 the Warsaw Business Journal reported on comments made by new CEO Martin Pirog that the airline was still loss-making as of April 2011, although its earnings were up by PLN1.25mn y-o-y on the back of a 15% annual increase in passenger numbers. For 2010 the Warsaw Business Journal reported that the airline had announced an operational loss of PLN160mn, although LOT was yet to release its 2010 Annual Report at the time of writing.
The government remains committed to selling LOT at some stage. However, the company’s debts will have to be cleaned up before any foreign airline will be interested in buying the carrier. This will necessitate tough cost-cutting measures on the part of the airline, which will have to be agreed with unions. As such, BMI does not believe that any near-term sale of the airline is feasible.

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Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Poland Tourism SWOT 7
Poland Political SWOT 7
Poland Economic SWOT 8
Poland Business Environment SWOT 8
Industry Forecast Scenario 9
Arrivals 9
Table: Arrivals Data, 2007-2015 (‘000) 9
Accommodation 10
Table: Accommodation Data, 2007-2015 (‘000, unless otherwise stated) 10
Expenditure 11
Table: Expenditure Data, 2007-2015 11
Inbound Tourism 12
Table: Inbound Tourism, 2007-2015 (‘000, unless stated) 13
Outbound Tourism 14
Table: Outbound Tourism data, 2007-2015 (‘000, unless stated) 14
Market Overview – Travel 16
Commercial Airlines 16
Budget Airlines 16
Global Oil Products Price Outlook 17
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q410-Q411 (US$/bbl) 17
Table: Oil Product Price Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 (US$/bbl) 20
Market Overview – Accommodation 22
Business Environment 24
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings 24
BMI’s Security Ratings 25
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings 25
Table: Europe State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 26
Poland’s Security Risk Ratings 27
European Regional Security Overview 28
Global Assumptions, Q311 34
Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015 34
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 35
Table: Selected Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average) 35
Developed States 36
Table: Developed States’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 37
Emerging Markets 38
Table: Emerging Markets’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 39
Consensus Forecasts 40
Table: Bloomberg Consensus GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2012 (% change y-o-y) 40
Company Profiles 41
LOT Polish Airlines 41
Orbis Hotel Group 43
Methodology 45
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 45
Tourism Industry 45
Tourism Ratings – Methodology 46
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators 47
Table: Weighting of Components 48
Sources 48
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