In BMI’s Q3 2011 update on Portugal’s telecommunications market, we revise our five-year forecasts for the country’s mobile subscriber and fixed-line telephony markets. Our forecasts and market analysis are based on data for the period ended March 2011, published by the telecoms market’s leading network operators. They include the country’s fixed-line incumbent Portugal Telecom, which also owns the leading mobile operator TMS, and Portugal Telecom’s rivals in the mobile market, Vodafone Portugal and Optimus (owned by Portuguese broadband operator Sonaecom).
The latest operator data suggest Portugal’s mobile subscriber base contracted in Q111. In the three months to 31 March 2011, the mobile market experienced a net loss of about 67,000 customers. The loss of customers appears to have affected prepaid users and postpaid subscribers. Although the loss of customers could be due to inactive prepaid users being deducted from the market, it is likely Portugal’s recession is also having a negative impact on the mobile market. BMI is expecting a contraction of 1.9% for Portugal’s economy in 2011, followed by a 1.8% contraction in 2012.
Although we still forecast positive growth will be achieved in 2011, we believe growth will be significantly reduced. In future we expect to see more aggressive moves by the operators to discount inactive subscribers. Partly due to the challenges ahead for Portugal’s economy, we have revised our long-term forecast downwards for Portugal’s mobile sector. We forecast the market will have fewer than 18mn subscribers by the end of 2015, equivalent to a penetration rate of 166.5%.
In addition to our regular mobile subscriber forecast, we introduced a new set of forecasts for mobile ARPU levels in Portugal. BMI’s ARPU forecast for Portugal is based on historical ARPU data published by all three mobile operators. Examined as a market average, the mobile ARPU rate for Portugal fell by 10.9% in 2010 to reach EUR14.1. BMI expects several factors to influence the development of Portugal’s mobile ARPU rates over the next five years. These include the extent to which the operators continue to improve their subscriber mix and the degree to which the operators encourage their mobile customers to use higher value data services.
Notable developments in the Portuguese telecoms sector include the news that a possible merger between Portuguese broadband operators Zon Multimedia and Sonaecom was once again up for discussion, despite both parties publicly dismissing the speculation. According to local newspaper Diario Economico, Caixa Geral de Depositos (CGD) made it clear it hopes to dispose of its remaining 10.9% stake in Zon, while France Telecom indicated it aims to sell its 20% stake in Sonaecom, enhancing the future investment prospects for foreign investors.
Meanwhile, as we reported in our previous update, Portugal's telecoms industry regulator Autoridade Nacional de Comunicacoes (ANACOM) announced in March that it planned to hold a spectrum auction for long-term evolution (LTE) frequencies in June 2011. Although there had been no word of the results of this auction at the time of writing, there are signs that the country’s operators are already preparing for the introduction of LTE services. In May, it was reported that mobile market leader TMN extended its trials of LTE to the northern Portuguese city of Braga. The cellco launched its initial 4G tests in Cascais during April, following laboratory-based 4G demonstrations in Lisbon and Aveiro, in March and April 2010 respectively. Meanwhile, in June it was revealed that Vodafone Portugal launched the Vodafone Connect Pen K5005, its first mobile broadband equipment capable of supporting LTE. BMI believes the launch of LTE-based services, which utilise network capacity more efficiently, will result in higher data transfer rates and lower network congestion and could ultimately result in mobile broadband becoming a viable substitute for wireline.
Portugal slipped from 15th to 16th position in BMI’s latest set of Business Environment Ratings for the telecommunications markets of Western Europe. During this quarter Portugal received lower scores in the Industry Rewards, Country Rewards and Country Risk categories. The lower Country Rewards and Country Risk scores reflect the challenges which Portugal’s economy faces.
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Executive Summary . 7
SWOT Analysis 9
Portugal Mobile Market SWOT Analysis .. 9
Portugal Wireline Market SWOT Analysis. 10
Portugal Political SWOT 11
Portugal Economic SWOT . 11
Business Environment Analysis 12
Western Europe .. 12
Table: Western Europe Business Environment Rankings 14
Portugal . 14
Industry Forecast Scenario 16
Mobile . 16
Table: Portugal Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts 16
ARPU .. 18
Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile ARPU – Historical Data & Forecasts (EUR) . 18
Fixed Line . 20
Table: Portugal Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data & Forecasts 20
Internet .. 21
Table: Portugal Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts . 21
Market Data Analysis 23
Mobile . 23
Market Growth 24
Market Share 26
Table: Portuguese Mobile Market, Q111 26
Table: Portuguese Mobile Market Net Additions, Q210-Q111 . 27
Subscriber Mix . 28
ARPU And MOU. 29
Table: Portuguese Blended ARPU, Q408-Q111 (EUR/User/Month) . 30
3G .. 31
Table: Mobile Contract Wins 33
Mobile Content .. 34
Regional Outlook 34
Table: Smart Meter Race Is On .. 37
Country Outlook . 37
Mobile Broadband . 38
SMS And MMS . 40
Mobile TV .. 40
Table: VAS Timeline . 41
Mobile Operator Data . 42
Table: Portugal Mobile Market Overview . 42
Table: TMN .. 42
Table: Vodafone Portugal .. 43
Table: Optimus 44
Fixed Line . 45
Table: Portugal: Growth Of Fixed-Line Accesses (‘000), Q210 Vs Q410 .. 46
Table: Portugal – Operator Market Shares Of Accesses Installed At Customer Request (%) 47
Table: Portugal – Growth Of Fixed-Line Customers By Type (000), Q210 Vs Q410 48
Table: Portugal – Operator Market Shares Of Direct Access Customers (%) .. 49
Table: Portugal: Operator Market Shares Of Voice Traffic (calls) 50
ARPU 51
Pay-TV . 51
Internet .. 52
Table: Portugal – Growth Of Fixed Internet Access Customers, Q409-Q410 .. 52
Table: Portugal – Growth Of Fixed Broadband Customers By Technology Type, Q409-Q410 53
Table: Portugal: Operator Market Shares of Fixed Broadband Customers, Q409-Q410 54
Next Generation Networks . 55
WiMAX 55
Regulatory Environment. 56
Overview 56
Portugal: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities 56
Legislation . 57
Market Analyses.. 58
Interconnection And Access .. 58
Universal Service 59
Recent Developments 60
Competitive Landscape .. 62
Key Players 62
Table: Key Players – Portugal Telecoms Sector . 62
Table: Selected Operators – Financial Indicators . 62
Company Monitor 63
IPTV's Rebound: Good News For Set-Top Box Makers? .. 63
Operator Profiles . 69
Portugal Telecom 69
TMN .. 74
Vodafone Portugal . 77
Optimus Telecomunicações 80
Sonaecom 84
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview . 88
Fixed Line . 88
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview 88
Internet .. 89
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview .. 89
Mobile . 90
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview 90
BMI Telecoms Industry Glossary .. 91
Table: Telecommunications Glossary Of Terms . 91
BMI Methodology 92
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .. 92
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts .. 92
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings .. 93
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 93
Table: Ratings Indicators .. 95
Weighting 96
Table: Weighting Of Indicators .. 96
Sources 96
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