Position Paper: Ofgem's proposals for UK Energy Policy

Introduction

In early February Ofgem publish Part 2 of Project Discovery: "Options for delivering secure and sustainable energy supplies". The proposals entail a radical change of course in UK energy policy, meriting close analysis by all stakeholders. Given Ofgem's position and influence, anyone involved in the UK energy industry will need to understand these proposals.

Scope

*An overview of the key elements of Ofgem's proposals for overhauling the UK's energy policy

*An assessment of the various options Ofgem has laid out and how these policy choices compare with one another

*A guide to the critical drivers behind Ofgem's revised policy position and a critique of the assumptions which underpin those drivers

Highlights

Ofgem has demonstrated a refreshing willingness to break with convention in its recent proposals: The UK energy regulator has recognised the changed energy landscape and has altered its approach accordingly

Long term price visibility is critical to incentivising private investment in new, low carbon generation; the issue is becoming critical as existing generation reaches the end of its lifespan. Ofgem's proposed minimum carbon price reflects popular opinion within the industry on how to address this problem.

Although Ofgem's capacity for adapting its policy to a changed environment is laudable, the regulator mistakenly assumes tightening near-term gas supplies. Unconventional extraction techniques, increase global LNG supply and a diverse array of supply sources mean the UK is well positioned to import more gas.

Reasons to Purchase

*Understand Ofgem's new regulatory proposals and why the sudden change in direction has come about

*Develop your own position on the key issues which affect you and your utility; formulate arguments for lobbying and campaigning


Report Highlights
Ofgem has demonstrated a refreshing willingness to break with convention in its recent proposals: The UK energy regulator has recognised the changed energy landscape and has altered its approach accordingly

Long term price visibility is critical to incentivising private investment in new, low carbon generation; the issue is becoming critical as existing generation reaches the end of its lifespan. Ofgem's proposed minimum carbon price reflects popular opinion within the industry on how to address this problem.

Although Ofgem's capacity for adapting its policy to a changed environment is laudable, the regulator mistakenly assumes tightening near-term gas supplies. Unconventional extraction techniques, increase global LNG supply and a diverse array of supply sources mean the UK is well positioned to import more gas.
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DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
METHODOLOGY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Letting go of the invisible hand: in its recent proposals, Ofgem has demonstrated a refreshing willingness to break with convention 2
The UK energy regulator has recognized the changed energy landscape and has altered its approach accordingly 2
Long-term price visibility is critical to incentivizing private investment in new, low-carbon generation; the issue is becoming critical as existing generation reaches the end of its lifespan 2
In its more drastic proposals, Ofgem has put forward an option for creating a central energy-buying authority to co-ordinate investment, which amounts to a wholesale recalibration of UK energy policy 3
Updated, but not up-to-date: although Ofgem's capacity for adapting its policy to a changed environment is laudable, the regulator mistakenly assumes tightening near-term gas supplies 4
APPENDIX 6
Ask the analyst 6
Datamonitor consulting 6
Disclaimer 6
List of Figures
Figure 1: UK nuclear generation is in decline 3
Figure 2: Unconventional gas supply will meet an increasing proportion of total US consumption 5

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