BMI View: With a major new independent water and power project (IWPP) commissioned in Q211, Qatar is witnessing a substantial hike in desalinated water capacity and is ambitiously eyeing further increases over the medium term. The 63mn gallons-a-day (g/d) Ras Girtas (Ras Laffan) IWPP is now in line for an expansion that will see its capacity increase to 88mn g/d by 2014. The Qatar Water and Electricity Corporation (Kahramaa) must now deal with the challenge of driving a sustained increase in water desalination, with the company envisaging that the country’s water needs will nearly double to around 2.1mn cubic metres a day (m3/d) by 2020. BMI is confident that Qatar will manage to keep pace with this strong demand outlook, but it will need more than ramped-up desalination capacity if it is to keep demand and supply in equilibrium. For one thing, it needs to plug the leaks across the water network to reduce waste. If it can succeed, it will do much to underscore an increase in water availability.
Key themes to highlight for Qatar’s water sector include:
?? We see the amount of water used in agriculture increasing sharply over the forecast period. By 2015, we envisage that agricultural water withdrawal will reach 164,853mn gallons, an increase of more than 15,000 gallons on our previous forecast.
?? This year, we expect total water withdrawal of 302,198mn gallons, rising to 388,148mn gallons by 2015. This is an increase on our previous forecast of 285,860mn gallons (2011) rising to 344,490mn gallons.
?? The government anticipates a sharp increase in demand. Kahramaa expects Qatar’s water needs to almost double, from 1.1mn cubic metres a day (m3/d) in 2011 to around 2.1mn m3/d by 2020. As a result, expansion plans are underway, with Kahramaa inviting bids in Q211 for 71mn g/d of water desalination baseload capacity, which is planned to come on stream by 2015 before rising to 95mn g/d by 2016.
Qatar’s level of per capita household water use is one of the world’s highest, with residents consuming an average of 310 litres each day, more than double the average for Western European countries. Fresh groundwater drawn from natural aquifers accounts for about 36% of water use, but there are efficiency problems. An estimated 250mn m3/y of groundwater is extracted, five times the 50mn m3/y of freshwater recharge that comes from Qatar’s rainfall. Desalinated water losses due to leaks are also high by international standards. There is now a 2013 target to cut leaks of desalinated water to 10% or less, from the current estimate of 30-35%.
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