TABLE OF CONTENTS
Overview 1
Catalyst 1
Summary 1
Methodology 2
Executive Summary 3
Chinese Power Market 3
Renewable Energy Policy Overview 3
Wind Power Overview 3
Solar Power Overview 4
Hydropower Overview 4
Geothermal Power Overview 5
Biomass Power Overview 5
Chinese Power Market 13
Market overview 13
Electricity supply and demand analysis 15
Electricity infrastructure 15
Electricity Market Competitive Intensity 16
Renewable Energy Policy Overview 23
Renewable energy policy 23
The Renewable Energy Law 23
Renewable Energy Law amendments 25
Tax incentives 26
Energy Law draft 26
Energy intensity targets 26
Carbon trading 27
Provincial and regional support 27
Policy outcomes 27
Wind Power Overview 29
Background 29
Resource availability and capacity margins 34
Policy landscape 40
Economics 43
Outlook 46
Solar Power Overview 48
Background 48
Resource availability and capacity margins 57
Policy landscape 64
Economics 65
Outlook 66
Hydropower Overview 68
Background 68
Resource availability and capacity margins 72
Policy landscape 74
Economics 75
Outlook 75
Geothermal Power Overview 78
Background 78
Resource availability and capacity margins 84
Policy landscape 88
Economics 89
Outlook 94
Biomass Power Overview 96
Background 96
Resource availability and capacity margins 100
Policy landscape 104
Outlook 104
Appendix 105
Sources 105
Glossary 106
Ask the Analyst 108
Datamonitor consulting 109
Disclaimer 109
TABLE OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Power demand in China, past present and future: 2008–30f 14
Figure 2: MCI Assessment Scale 16
Figure 3: MCI Assessment Framework 17
Figure 4: MCI Scales 18
Figure 5: Asia Pacific power Market Competitive Intensity, 2010f–13f 19
Figure 6: China: power Market Competitive Intensity scores 20
Figure 7: Global installed wind capacity (MW), 1996–2009 29
Figure 8: Installed capacity by country (MW), 2008–09 30
Figure 9: Annual and cumulative wind power capacity growth forecast (GW), 2009–14f 31
Figure 10: Annual wind power installed capacity additions forecast (GW), by region, 2009–14f 32
Figure 11: Cumulative wind power installed capacity forecast (GW), by region, 2009–14f 32
Figure 12: Top 10 wind turbine manufacturers by cumulative installed capacity (GW), 2009 33
Figure 13: Top 10 wind turbine manufacturers by annual market share (%), 2009 33
Figure 14: Potential for wind capacity deployments across China (GW) 37
Figure 15: Potential for wind power generation across China (GWh) 38
Figure 16: Map of China's energy infrastructure 39
Figure 17: Heat map of China's population density 40
Figure 18: Typical annual levelized development of wind power projects ($000s) 43
Figure 19: Effect of discounted rates on the annual levelized cost of wind power projects ($000s) 44
Figure 20: The effect of discounted rates on annual levelized capex ($000s) 45
Figure 21: Drivers and resistors of wind power in China 46
Figure 22: List of different types of solar power-generating technologies 48
Figure 23: Global PV solar power installed capacity (MW), by country and region, 2000–09 49
Figure 24: Global solar PV installed capacity growth, 1999–2009 50
Figure 25: List of rural and large-scale applications for solar PV power 51
Figure 26: Relationship between the different actors that drive solar power costs 52
Figure 27: Forces that drive the solar industry towards consolidation and vertical integration 53
Figure 28: List of risk factors that make solar a safer asset under a horizontally integrated model 55
Figure 29: List of drivers of the uptake of solar power by Chinese utilities 56
Figure 30: Global horizontal irradiance in China (Wh/m2-day) 58
Figure 31: Land slope class distribution in China 59
Figure 32: Heat map of land use and protected areas in China 60
Figure 33: Map of China's energy infrastructure 61
Figure 34: Solar energy capacity potential in China (GW), by region 62
Figure 35: Solar energy generation potential in China (TWh/yr), by region 63
Figure 36: Levelized costs of different forms of power generation in 2009 (2008$) 66
Figure 37: Hydropower is electric energy derived from moving water 68
Figure 38: Hydroelectric net electricity consumption by country (GWh), 1996–2008 69
Figure 39: Hydropower projects in the Yarlung Tsangpo (the Brahmaputra) in Tibet 72
Figure 40: Net hydroelectric generation levels (TWh) and growth rates (%) in China, 1990–2009 73
Figure 41: Photo of a section of the Three Gorges Dam in China 74
Figure 42: Satellite images of the Three Gorges Dam area, in 1987, 2000 and 2006 76
Figure 43: Photograph of a geothermal power station in Yangbajing, Tibet 78
Figure 44: Graphical representation of the mechanics of a flash steam geothermal power plant 79
Figure 45: Graphical representation of a typical flash steam geothermal power plant 79
Figure 46: Global geothermal installed electrical capacity (MW), 1980–2010 81
Figure 47: Levelized costs of different forms of power generation in 2009 (2008$) 89
Figure 48: Factors that affect geothermal energy project costs 91
Figure 49: Fixed O&M costs for different forms of power generation (2006$/kW-yr), 2007–09 92
Figure 50: Capacity factors for different forms of power generation 93
Figure 51: Graphical representation of the biomass power carbon cycle 96
Figure 52: The natural decay of biomass under anaerobic conditions produces methane 98
Figure 53: Top 10 global biogas and liquid biomass consumers (Ktoe) 99
Figure 54: Top 10 global biomass (including fuel wood) consumers (Ktoe) 100
TABLE OF TABLES
Table 1: Targets under the Medium and Long-Term Development Plan for Renewable Energy 25
Table 2: Global clean technology investment levels and rankings, 2009 28
Table 3: China's wind installed capacity (GW), 2000–09 34
Table 4: Top five wind power regions in China (MW), 2009 35
Table 5: Wind power potential in China, by wind class 36
Table 6: Value chain analysis of vertically and horizontally integrated solar energy assets 57
Table 7: Hydroelectric power production/capacity levels in top 10 producing countries, 2010 70
Table 8: List of future hydroelectric projects over 5,000MW in capacity 71
Table 9: Types of applications for the direct use of geothermal energy 83
Table 10: Distribution of hot springs in China, by region 85
Table 11: List of the principal geothermal fields with the potential for power generation in China 86
Table 12: Direct-use estimates of geothermal resources in China, 2005 87
Table 13: China: biomass resource assessment, by type 100
Table 14: Details of biomass power projects registered under the CDM framework in China 102
Table 15: List of credit buyers and project consultants for geothermal CDM projects in China 103
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