Over the last 18 months the majority of food and drink stocks listed on the Irish stock market have outperformed the wider index. This outperformance can also be partly attributed to the defensive nature of the food and drink sector, with signs that in some categories the rapid drop in demand that accompanied Ireland's economic woes may have bottomed out. However, we think a more significant factor is the international focus of many of these businesses, which has helped them to benefit from the global recovery
We believe the domestic food and drink market will remain incredibly challenging – particularly for firms focused on discretionary items. However, signs of a bottoming out within the consumer sector are also likely to put a floor under the share price of Ireland's food and drink producers, particularly given the defensive nature of the overall industry, which can be expected to be among the first parts of the consumer sector to benefit from any increase in consumer spending.
Headline Industry Data
?? 2011 per capita food consumption +0.6%; forecast to 2015 +6%
?? 2011 alcoholic drink sales -4.9%; forecast to 2015 +7.2%
?? 2011 soft drink sales -0.5% ; forecast to 2015 +5.4%
?? 2011 mass grocery retail sales +2.0%; forecast to 2015 +8.9%
Key Industry Trends & Developments
BMI Sees Superquinn Sale As Likely With Musgrave Frontrunner To Secure Business – A spokesperson for Irish retailer Superquinn has denied reports that it is up for sale, saying instead that it would focus on implementing its recently approved business plan. However, the latest retail sales figures from Kantar Wordpanel point to continued difficulties for the firm, with falling sales and declining market share. This suggests the company would be in a weak position to rebuff any potential takeover attempt, with rival retailer Musgrave reported to be interested in making a bid.
Aryzta Moves Back Towards Growth – Switzerland/Ireland-based bakery group Aryzta has posted a 31.6% increase in revenues for the first nine months of its fiscal year on the back of acquisitions. The firm's revenues to April 30 came in at EUR2.92bn, aided by the US acquisitions of Great Kitchens and Fresh Start Bakeries. Perhaps more significantly, the company reported that it was encouraged by an upward trend in underlying sales – a sign that its core business, which had been damaged by the global downturn, has turned a corner.
Key Risks to Outlook
Rebalancing of the economy towards exports – Our outlook for Ireland's long-term growth requires a rebalancing of the economy towards exports. We are fairly optimistic that Ireland will continue to see its economy bolstered by the export sector, which, in our view, stands to benefit from an economic recovery in three of its largest export markets – the US, Germany and the UK. However, if demand in any of these core markets fails to deliver the momentum we are currently expecting, then our Irish economic outlook may need to be revised downwards.
Consumer spending fails to recover in line with economy – A second risk is that private consumption growth lags the wider economic recovery to an even greater extent than we are currently predicting, putting further downwards pressure on our forecasts. While there are signs of improvement in the consumer sector, the domestic economic situation is expected to remain extremely fraught, with high unemployment, an ongoing property-bubble unwind and unavoidable fiscal austerity likely ensuring conditions feel recessionary to most Irish citizens, even once headline GDP growth returns.

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BMI Industry View . 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Ireland Food Industry SWOT .. 7
Ireland Drink Industry SWOT . 8
Ireland Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT . 9
Business Environment 10
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views .. 10
Table: BMI Food & Drink Core Views 15
Western Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings . 16
Table: Western Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q3 2011 . 19
Ireland Food And Drink Risk/Reward Rating .. 20
Macroeconomic Outlook 21
Table: Ireland - Economic Activity 24
Industry Forecast Scenario 25
Consumer Outlook 25
Food. 27
Total Food Consumption 27
Table: Ireland Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data And Forecasts .. 28
Drink 29
Soft Drinks And Bottled Water . 29
Table: Soft Drink Volume And Value Sales – Historical Data And Forecasts .. 30
Alcoholic Drinks . 31
Table: Alcoholic Drink Volume And Value Sales – Historical Data And Forecasts .. 33
Mass Grocery Retail 34
Table: Ireland MGR Sector – Sales Value by Format – Historical Data And Forecasts . 36
Table: Organised Retail Market Share – Historical Data And Forecasts 36
Trade .. 37
Table: Food And Drink Trade Balance – Historical Data And Forecasts .. 38
Food . 39
Key Industry Trends And Developments 39
Aryzta Moves Back Towards Growth 39
Irish Food And Drink Exports On The Up Again 40
Greencore Thwarted In Northern Foods Merger 41
Glanbia Pursues Nutrition Growth 42
Market Overview .. 43
Overview Of Food Sector 43
Confectionery 44
Prepared Food . 45
Drink 47
Key Industry Trends And Developments 47
C&C Full Year Results Offer Up Some Signs Of Encouragement.. 47
Irish Performance Continues To Dent Britvic’s Results . 48
Soft Drinks Producers Struggle In Ireland . 49
Market Overview .. 50
Soft Drinks . 50
Soft Drinks Sales Breakdown In Ireland, 2009 BMI Estimates . 50
Alcoholic Drinks . 51
Alcoholic Drinks Sales Breakdown In Ireland, 2009 BMI Estimates . 52
Mass Grocery Retail .. 53
Key Industry Trends And Developments 53
BMI Sees Superquinn Sale As Likely, With Musgrave Frontrunner 53
Ireland’s Retail Sector Dominated by Price . 54
Ireland’s Unsaturated Retail Market Could Attract New Entrants . 54
Aldi’s Slow Pace Of Irish Expansion May Hint At Problems For Sector . 55
Irish Government Unveils Plans For Grocery Code Of Practice . 56
Market Overview .. 57
Table: Structure Of Ireland's Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets.. 59
Table: Sales Formats By Value In Ireland's Mass Grocery Retail Market (EURbn).. 59
Table: Annual Average Sales Per Outlet By Format – 2009 . 59
Competitive Landscape .. 60
Consumer Shares Analysis 60
Key Players .. 63
Table: Key Players in Ireland's Drink Sector .. 63
Table: Key Players in Ireland’s Drink Sector .. 65
Table: Key Players in Irelands's Mass Grocery Retail Sector .. 66
Company Analysis . 67
Food. 67
Kerry Group . 67
Greencore .. 69
Drink 71
C&C . 71
Mass Grocery Retail 73
Tesco Ireland 73
BMI Methodology 74
Food And Drink Business Environment Ratings 74
Table: Rewards 75
Table: Risks .. 76
Weighting 76
Table: Weighting 77
BMI Food And Drink Industry Glossary 78
Food And Drink .. 78
Mass Grocery Retail . 78
BMI Food And Drink Forecasting And Sourcing .. 80
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 80
Sourcing .. 81
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