At first glance, Romania’s security and defence situation appears very similar to that of neighbouring countries in south eastern Europe. In part because of full NATO membership, traditional risks from interstate conflict are minimal. The history of the country is such that it is less likely to be the target of international terrorism than, for example, many (much) richer countries in Western Europe. However, relatively low income levels, substantial economic disruption in the wake of the global financial crisis of 2008-09, general geographic location near the Middle East and very close proximity to (significantly) poorer and/or more chaotic countries, and underdeveloped institutions (eg judiciary) mean that Romania is prospective territory for organised crime.
Meanwhile, the armed forces are at a relatively early stage of a major modernisation program, which faces two broad challenges. First, and only in part because of the global financial crisis, government funds are limited. Indeed, in Romania’s case, we are looking for military spending to slip as a percentage of GDP through the forecast period. Second, indigenous arms companies are not necessarily best placed to provide the hardware and materiel that is needed. In theory, joint production and/or offset deals are possible. In practice, lean times for many of the world’s leading defence/aerospace companies (thanks to constrained government spending in North America, Western Europe and Japan) mean that equipment is often available from the foreign suppliers at bargain prices or – depending on the policies of the relevant governments – as outright gifts.
Nevertheless, in mid-2011, the latest developments highlight how Romania stands out in a number of ways. First, it is an active participant in NATO missions. In mid-March 2011, the last Romanian batallion returned from the NATO mission in Kosovo, in which Romania’s army had been involved for nine years and 21 successive rotations of units. At the end of March, the Supreme Council for National Defence (CSAT) agreed to the use by US military tanker aircraft of Romanian airfields in their support of operations against the forces of Libyan leader Muammar Qadhafi, as approved by United Nations Resolution 1973.
In early April, Romania’s airforce took over the operation of Kabul International Airport from its Hungarian counterpart, as a part of the ISAF operations in Afghanistan. Romania is the first country to take on responsibility for that airport’s air traffic control, air operation command, flight security, logistic support and communications for a one-year period. Later that month, the frigate King Ferdinand was sent out to participate in NATO’s naval blockade of Libya. In May 2011, President Traian Basescu announced that the airforce’s Deveselu base would host interceptor missiles as a part of the future NATO/US missile shield system.
The second respect in which Romania stands out is that, through the activities of EADS’ subsidiaries Premium AEROTEC and Eurocopter, it is virtually the only country in the region to have a significant aerospace industry that is fully integrated with Western European multi-nationals and supply chains.
Eurocopter’s operation in Brasov, for instance, is handling a GBP347mn contract for the UK’s Royal Air Force to fit new engines and cockpit systems in 24 Puma HC1 transport helicopters. As of mid-2011, this deal had generated some controversy in the UK, not least because the helicopters had to be transported to Romania (and back) by road. In July 2011, Premium Aerotec opened a new factory in Brasov that will produce and assemble metal components for all Airbus programmes (A320, A330 and A380).
Another recent development has been the engaging by ROMATSA, the organisation responsible for the country’s air traffic control, of Raytheon as a supplier of Mode S Monopulse Secondary Surveillance Radar (MSSR) systems at three of Romania’s main commercial airports. Meanwhile, there appears to have been little progress in relation to Romania’s purchase of MBDA’s VL MICA surface-to-air missile (SAM) system: Romania was the launch customer for the land-based version of the VL MICA when it signed an agreement with MBDA in mid-2009. Like other countries in the region, Romania is looking at various options in determining how to replace/upgrade its airforce’s ageing fleet of MiG-21 fighters.

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Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Romania Security SWOT 7
Romania Defence Industry SWOT 7
Romania Political SWOT 8
Romania Economic SWOT 8
Romania Business Environment SWOT 9
Global Political Outlook 10
Global Hotspots: Libya, Iran, Afghanistan, Korea, Greece 10
Table: Election Timetable 14
United States 17
Latin America 17
Western Europe 18
Russia And The Former Soviet Union 19
Middle East And North Africa 20
Asia 22
Wild Cards To Watch 24
Europe Security Overview 26
Europe’s Key Security Issues Over Coming Decade 26
The Role Of NATO 33
Security Risk Analysis 37
BMI’s Security Ratings 37
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings 37
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 38
Romania’s Security Risk Ratings 39
City Terrorism Rating 40
Table: BMI’s Central And Eastern Europe And Central Asia City Terrorism Index 40
Political Overview 42
Security Overview 48
Internal Security Situation 48
Table: Regional Insurgent Groups 48
External Security Situation 49
Armed Forces And Government Spending 50
Armed Forces 50
International Deployment And Joint Exercises 50
Weapons Of Mass Destruction 50
Market Overview 51
Industry Trends And Developments 52
Arms Trade Overview 53
Procurement Trends And Developments 53
Industry Forecast Scenario 54
Armed Forces 54
Table: Romania’s Armed Forces, 2004-2008 (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 54
Table: Romania’s Available Manpower For Military Services, 2008-2015 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 54
Defence Expenditure 54
Table: Romania’s Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015 55
Table: Romania’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2008-2015 (US$mn) 56
Defence Trade 56
Macroeconomic Forecast 56
Table: Romania – GDP By Segment, Contribution To Growth, 2007-2015 57
Company Profiles 58
Aerostar 58
EADS/Eurocopter Romania 60
IAR SA Brasov 61
MFA Mizil 62
Romaero 63
Country Snapshot: Romania Demographic Data 64
Section 1: Population 64
Section 2: Education And Healthcare 65
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 65
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power 66
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 66
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2005-2010 (US$) 66
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2006-2010 67
BMI Methodology 68
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 68
Defence Industry 68
City Terrorism Rating 69
Table: Methodology 71
Sources 71
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