In BMI’s Food and Drink Business Environment Ratings (BER) table for Q311, Romania remains ninth (out of 15 key regional markets), having moved up one place in the previous quarter. With the country’s economy only recently emerged from recession, Romanian consumer confidence levels are still dented, even though there are positive signs regarding unemployment levels. We envisage modest GDP recovery for the year, driven by exports, rather than by private domestic demand. Generally speaking, Romania’s population size (of close to 22mn) will continue to theoretically provide longer-term opportunities for manufacturers of food and drinks, although improvements in physical and regulatory infrastructures are also required.
Headline Industry Data (local currency)
?? 2011 per capita food consumption = +1.85%; forecast to 2015 = +10.01%
?? 2011 alcoholic drinks sales = +3.41%; forecast to 2015 = +22.85%
?? 2011 soft drinks sales = +5.22%; forecast to 2015 = +26.07%
?? 2011 mass grocery retail = +8.90%; forecast to 2015 = +48.59%
Key Company Trends
Increased Interest in Romanian Market for Fast Foods – Indicating a return of investor confidence and also changing consumption patterns driven by economic and social changes, KFC Romania, a local subsidiary of US-based fast food chain Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC), is planning to open a new drive-through restaurant in Iasi, making it the second in the country once it is inaugurated in autumn 2011. Similarly, Sibiubased food processor Scandia Food launched its first restaurant in the capital city of Bucharest and will open six or seven more restaurants during the coming 12 months.
Beer Market Stages a Recovery in Early 2011 – first two months of 2011 witnessed a 0.6% year-on-year (yo- y) increase in beer sales, thanks to a 3.1% month-on-month (m-o-m) February increase, according to Ziarul Financiar’s figures, which are based on the National Statistics Institute (INS)’s data. In 2010, the country’s beer volumes topped 17mn hectolitres, a 3.4% decline on 2009, according to the Romanian Brewers' Association, which jointly represent 90% of the market.
Key Risks to Outlook
Upside Risks to Inflation – We envisage an upside risk to our current inflation forecasts, as unrest in the Middle East and North Africa region has resulted in a sharp move upwards in oil prices. While we currently forecast oil prices to moderate (from above US$110/bbl for Brent) through H211 on account of ample spare OPEC capacity, we acknowledge the risk that supply disruption beyond Libya would likely keep prices elevated for a prolonged period, pushing up Romanian inflation in 2011. This will clearly have a bearing on the performance of the country’s food and drink markets, which have begun to recover tentatively.

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BMI Industry View 7
SWOT Analysis 8
Romania Food Industry SWOT 8
Romania Drink Industry SWOT 9
Romania Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT 10
Business Environment 11
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views 11
Table: BMI Food & Drink Core Views 16
Central and Eastern Europe Food And Drink Business Environment Ratings 17
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q311 20
Romania’s Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings 21
Macroeconomic Outlook 22
Table: GDP By Expenditure 26
Industry Forecast Scenario 27
Consumer Outlook 27
Food 30
Food Consumption 30
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts 31
Confectionery 32
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts 33
Canned Food 33
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts 34
Trade 34
Table: Food, Drink and Tobacco Trade Indicators – Historical Data and Forecasts (US$mn) 35
Drink 35
Alcoholic Drinks 35
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts 37
Soft Drinks 38
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts 39
Hot Drinks 40
Table: Hot Drink Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts 40
Mass Grocery Retail 41
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Value Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts 44
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data And Forecasts 44
Food 45
Key Industry Trends And Developments 45
Food Consumption In Decline 45
Rising Investor Interest in Fast Food Industry 45
Reshuffling In The Confectionery Market 46
Unilever Moving Production To Romania 46
Romanian Dairy Industry Remains Competitive 47
Romanian Meat Industry Still In Good Shape 47
Market Overview 48
Food Consumption 48
Food Production 49
Leading Players 49
Meat Processing Industry 51
Confectionery 51
Canned Food 53
Trade 53
Agriculture 54
Dairy Industry 55
Organic Farming 56
Drink 57
Key Industry Trends And Developments Bottled Water Industry Continues Investment 57
Beverage Segments Emerging, Tentatively, From The Downturn… 58
…Carbonated Soft Drinks 58
…Beer 58
…Wine 59
Market Overview 60
Alcoholic Drinks 60
Beer 61
Wine 64
Spirits 65
Soft Drinks 66
Hot Drinks 71
Mass Grocery Retail 73
Key Industry Trends And Developments 73
MGR Players Continue To Expand In Romania, Despite Economic Challenges 73
Private Label Gaining Prominence 75
…But Leading Romanian Retailer Struggling 75
Competition Watchdog Hands Out Fines Over Price-Fixing 76
Market Overview 76
Leading Retailers 78
Table: Structure Of Romania’s Mass Grocery Retail Sector By Estimated Number Of Outlets 81
Table: Structure of Romania’s Mass Grocery Retail Sector – Estimated Sales Value By Format 82
Table: Structure Of Romania’s Mass Grocery Retail Sector – Average Sales Value Per Retail Outlet – 2010 82
Competitive Landscape 83
Table: Key Players in Romania's Food Sector, 2010 83
Table: Key Players in Romania's Drinks Sector, 2010 84
Table: Key Players in Romania's Mass Retail Grocery Sector (2010) 85
Company Profiles 87
Food 87
Kandia-Excelent 87
Vel Pitar 88
Nestlé Romania 89
Drink 90
Quadrant Amroq Beverages SA (QAB)/Pepsi Americas Romania 90
Brau Union Romania (Heineken) 91
SABMiller Romania 92
Bergenbier (CVC Capital Partners) 93
Mass Grocery Retail 94
Metro Cash & Carry Romania 94
Rewe Romania 95
Hiparlo/Carrefour 96
Delhaize 97
Auchan 98
BMI Methodology 99
Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings 99
Table: Rewards 100
Table: Risks 101
Weighting 101
Table: Weighting 102
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary 103
Food & Drink 103
Mass Grocery Retail 103
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing 105
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 105
Sourcing 106
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