2011 is the year BMI forecasts the downturn in container volumes that has plagued Romania's port of Constantza for three consecutive years to end, with a year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in box volumes of 4.46% projected.
The port tried to drive up its container volumes in 2010 by signing cooperation agreements with major ports as a way of enticing more lines to call at Constantza by offering support for companies that wish to ship between the two ports. The latest cooperation agreement is between Constantza and Dubai's Jebel Ali, the world's fifth-largest container port.
Despite the decline in throughput at the port the facility will remain the number-one container port in the Black Sea region and will continue to hold its role as the region's transhipment hub. Over the mid term, unless the port recovers quicker than we currently project, the port will be overtaken by the Russian port of Novorossiysk. Container volumes at the port of Constantza will also be negatively affected if the port of Odessa is successful in its attempt to woo more direct box services as currently the majority of box traffic for Ukraine comes through the Romanian port.
Headline Industry Data
?? 2011 port of Constantza tonnage throughput forecast to grow 13.28%; over the mid-term we project a 49.6% increase.
?? 2011 port of Constantza container throughput forecast to grow 4.46%; over the mid-term we project a 27.66% increase.
?? 2011 total trade growth forecast at 6.85%.
Key Industry Trends
Getting Cooperative: Following on from cooperation agreements signed with the port of Rotterdam and the Turkish port of Pendik, Constantza has signed a deal to drive up volumes with the UAE's Jebel Ali. The hope is that the two ports will be able to work together to encourage lines to offer services between them. The port of Constantza has undergone three consecutive years on decline and is now hunting for more box shipping clients to lift volumes.
Risks to Outlook The port of Constantza faces growing competition from other ports in the Black Sea. The port of Odessa is hoping to decrease its reliance on feeder services from the Romanian port and entice lines to call directly at Odessa. Should the Ukrainian port achieve this it will place downside risk on our current forecast. In terms of other ports in the region, it appears that Bulgaria is abandoning its plan to expand its box port facilities, which will mean the country remains reliant on Constantza as its transhipment hub. The positive economic outlook for Romania will mean that the port's recovery, will in part, be due to domestic demand lifting throughput volumes.
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