BMI’s Q411 update of the Romania Telecommunications Report contains analysis of the market data from the major fixed telephony, broadband and mobile service providers for the period to the end of June 2011. It also contains data released by the regulator as well as updated forecasts for the mobile, fixed telephony and broadband markets sectors through to 2015. The report also contains BMI’s ARPU forecasts for operators and the wider market through to 2015, as well as – for the first time – converged service operator tables for Romtelecom and UPC Romania.
Many of the familiar trends continued to affect the Romanian telecoms market in the first half of 2011. The incumbent Romtelecom continues to report fixed-line losses in Q111, down 3.9% year-on-year (y-oy) as fixed-to-mobile substitution has continued. The incumbent and alternative operators are also under pressure from cable TV operators and VoIP service providers. However, more positively for the sector, we believe that the increasing prevalence of converged services will help to stabilise fixed-line subscriptions as the service is bundled with pay-TV and/or broadband. BMI forecasts the fixed-line market to decline progressively from 2010, falling to 4.027mn lines by 2015.
The Romanian mobile market reported improved performance in Q211 after a net subscriber loss of 1.132mn in Q111 – the largest ever fall in subscriptions. However, improvement was only relative as the market still recorded a net subscriber loss of 405,000. This loss now means the market has recorded five consecutive quarters of subscriber losses since the last additions in Q110, losing a total of 1.756mn subscribers. All operators have recorded subscriber losses as they have continued to discount inactive SIMs, although we believe this process now may be drawing to an end. However, as all operators reported negative growth, we believe the wider macroeconomic conditions continued to have an impact alongside SIM discounting.
BMI had long held the view that operators’ reported results were built on a large number of inactive subscribers, so the process of deactivation helps provide a clearer picture of actual growth prospects as well as yielding ARPU figures that more closely reflect reality. ARPU declines have stabilised, although we believe there may be further losses as the positive impact of subscriber discounting is removed.
Proposed declines in mobile and fixed termination rates, of up to 30%, also are likely to have a negative impact on total revenues for operators. While economic conditions remain uncertain, we believe subscribers will remain reluctant to access premium value-added services. Greater efforts are therefore needed to retain customers and persuade them to consume more data. We now forecast 29.6mn mobile subscribers by 2015. By then, there will be 9.9mn 3G subscribers, accounting for 33.5% of the market.
The fixed-broadband segment has been boosted by continued deployment of xDSL and by cable operators upgrading their networks in 2010, with xDSL subscriptions increasing 13% y-o-y and cable increasing 10% y-o-y. Meanwhile, growth of dedicated mobile broadband subscriptions far surpassed that of fixed subscriptions. The number of mobile broadband subscribers increased to 930,000 at YE10, exhibiting 93.8% y-o-y growth. BMI believes that the number of mobile broadband subscribers may ultimately pass the number of fixed-line subscriptions, although this will not occur for some time. BMI calculates there were 3.93mn broadband subscribers in total at the end of 2010, a penetration rate of 18.3%. Despite registering growth, consolidation in the cable sector is resulting in the loss of some cable broadband subscribers, while IPTV and over-the-top video services are stealing customers away from smaller players. Mobile broadband is now the primary growth engine in the broadband sector, but we believe it may encounter problems with access and bandwidth if infrastructure is not invested in ahead of subscriber growth.

[Studien Infos ausblenden]

Executive Summary 7
SWOT Analysis 9
Romania Mobile Industry SWOT 9
Romania Fixed-Line & Broadband Industry SWOT 10
Romania Political SWOT 11
Romania Economic SWOT 11
Romania Business Environment SWOT 12
Business Environment 13
Central And Eastern Europe 13
Central And Eastern Europe Business Environment Ratings, Q411 17
Romania 18
Industry Forecast Scenario 20
Mobile 20
Table: Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts 20
ARPU 22
Table: ARPU – Historical Data & Forecasts 22
Fixed Line 24
Table: Fixed Line – Historical Data & Forecasts 24
Internet 26
Table: Internet – Historical Data And Forecasts 26
Market Data Analysis 28
Mobile 28
Market Share 29
Table : Mobile Market, June 2011 30
Net Additions 31
Table: Comparison Of Operators’ Net Additions (‘000) Q309-Q211 31
Subscriber Mix 32
ARPU 33
Network Coverage 35
Mobile Termination Rates 35
3G 36
Mobile Contract Wins 39
Table: Mobile Contract Wins 39
Mobile Operator Data 40
Table: Total Market Romania 40
Table: Orange 40
Table: Vodafone 41
Table: Cosmote 42
Mobile Content 43
Regional Outlook 43
Country Outlook 48
Table: SMS, MMS & 3G Video Call Traffic 50
Value-Added Services Timeline 54
Table: Selected VAS Services 54
Fixed Line 55
Competition 56
Broadband 58
Technologies 58
Table: Number Of Active ISPs, 2008-2010 59
Cable 59
Wireless Internet 61
WiMAX 62
Table: Companies Interested In WiMAX Licence Tender 63
IPTV 63
Wireline (Fixed-Line & Broadband) Developments 65
Table: Wireline Developments 2008-2011 65
Converged Service Operator Tables 66
Table: Romtelecom 66
Table: UPC Romania 66
Regulatory Environment 67
Legislation And Market Liberalisation 68
Regulation 69
Licensing And Spectrum 69
Market Development 71
Recent Regulatory Developments 72
Competitive Landscape 75
Key Players 75
Table: Key Players: Romanian Telecoms Markets 75
Table: Selected Operators Financial Indicators 75
Company Monitor 76
Company Profiles 81
Romtelecom 81
Cosmote Romania 85
Vodafone Romania 89
Orange Romania 93
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview 96
Fixed Line 96
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview 96
Broadband 97
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview 97
Mobile Overview 98
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview 99
Country Snapshot: Romania Demographic Data 100
Section 1: Population 100
Section 2: Education And Health Care 101
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 101
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power 102
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 102
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2005-2010 (US$) 103
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2006-2010 103
Glossary Of Terms 104
Table: Glossary Of Terms 104
BMI Methodology 105
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 105
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts 105
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings 107
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 107
Table: Ratings Indicators 108
Weighting 109
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 109
Sources 109
[Inhaltsverzeichnis ausblenden]