Tourism Overview After Romania recorded an extremely poor performance for foreign visitor arrivals in 2009 the downturn in the tourism sector appears to have almost bottomed out, with only a modest annual decline in arrivals of 1% in 2010. The most recent figures for the first two months of 2011 continue to show a slight fall in foreign visitors of about 2% year-on-year (y-o-y). Resident departures abroad fell an annual 7% in 2010, following an even larger fall of 10% in the previous year.
Hospitality
Figures for 2010 show further deterioration in the hospitality sector following a slump in 2009, although signs of recovery were evident in the final months of the year. The total number of tourist nights by domestic tourists was down a sizeable 9% y-o-y in 2010. Foreign tourist nights, however, were up an annual 3.7% (accounting for some 17% of total overnight stays). Latest figures for the first two months of 2011 record robust growth in the sector, with the total number of tourist nights in all accommodation establishments up by almost 14% y-o-y. Nights by foreign and domestic tourists increased 11.5% and 14.5% y-o-y respectively.
Forecast Scenario
Based on continuing relatively subdued data on arrivals over recent months, BMI has revised down its expectations for recovery in 2011, with an annual growth forecast for arrivals now at 5%. Growth in arrivals should pick up in 2012, however. The forecasts are based on steady growth in the major source region – the eurozone – going into 2011 (edged up this quarter to 1.8%), with growth unchanged in 2012.
In Germany though, growth is expected to slow over the same period, to 3% and 2% respectively. In Hungary, a key source market, relatively strong economic recovery is anticipated over the next two years. Concerning the leu, BMI forecasts an appreciation trend against the euro in both 2011 and 2012, which is likely to constrain the growth of foreign tourism.
Bucharest Henri Coand? International Airport Following a fall in passenger numbers at Romania’s largest airport, Bucharest Henri Coand? International Airport (BHCIA), of more than 11% y-o-y in 2009, there was a favourable rebound in traffic in 2010, with numbers up an annual 9.7% to just over 4.9mn. Of the passengers who boarded at the airport, 41% travelled to Schengen destinations.
Airlines Romanian airline Carpatair reported a 13% y-o-y increase in passenger traffic in 2010. In April 2011, the carrier began direct flights from Iasi to Rome. In March, the Romanian low-cost market leader, Hungarian carrier Wizz Air, announced it was opening its fourth Romanian operating base in Tirgu Mures. From June, the airline will add seven new routes from Tirgu Mures to the already existing Budapest and London services. The new routes are Barcelona, Rome Fiumicino, Paris Beauvais, Milan Bergamo, Madrid, Dortmund and Bologna Forli. From May, Turkish low-cost carrier Pegasus Airlines introduced five weekly flights on the Bucharest-Istanbul route.
Danubius Hotels Group Preliminary results for Hungary’s Danubius Hotels Group show consolidated group revenues totalled over HUF42.9bn (US$226mn) in 2010, down 1% in local currency terms on the previous year, while operating profit totalled HUF357mn (US$1.9mn), down nearly 70% y-o-y. After a very poor performance in 2009, results for Romanian hotels in 2010 remained weak, with revenues down by 2% y-o-y to under HUF1.5bn (US$7mn). Profit before tax rose by an annual 2% to HUF217mn (some US$1mn). The occupancy rate in Romanian hotels was largely unchanged in 2010 compared with a year earlier, at 56.7%.

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Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Romania Tourism Industry SWOT 7
Romania Political SWOT 7
Romania Economic SWOT 8
Romania Business Environment SWOT 8
Industry Forecast Scenario 9
Arrivals 10
Table: Arrivals Data, 2007-2015 10
Accommodation 11
Table: Accommodation Data, 2007-2015 12
Expenditure 13
Table: Tourism Expenditure & Economic Impact, 2007-2015 13
Inbound Tourism 13
Table: Inbound Tourism Data, 2007-2015 14
Outbound Tourism 15
Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2007-2015 15
Table: Resident Departures By Destination Country, 2007-2015 (‘000) 16
Market Overview – Travel 17
Commercial Airlines 17
Global Oil Products Price Outlook 22
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q410-Q411 (US$/bbl) 22
Table: Oil Product Price Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 (US$/bbl) 25
Market Overview – Hospitality 27
Table: Key Players In The Romanian Hotel Industry 28
Accommodation Developments 29
Infrastructure 30
Business Environment Outlook 32
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings 32
BMI’s Security Ratings 32
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings 33
Table: Europe State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 34
Romania’s Security Risk Ratings 35
Central And Eastern Europe Security Overview 35
Global Assumptions, Q311 38
Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015 38
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 39
Table: Selected Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average) 39
Developed States 40
Table: Developed States’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 40
Emerging Markets 41
Table: Emerging Markets’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 42
Consensus Forecasts 43
Table: Bloomberg Consensus GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2012 (% change y-o-y) 43
Company Profiles 44
Austrian Airlines 44
Hilton Worldwide 45
SIF Transilvania 46
Tarom 47
Unita Turism Holding 49
BMI Methodology 50
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 50
Tourism Industry 51
Tourism Ratings – Methodology 51
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators 52
Table: Weighting of Components 53
Sources 53
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