Executive Summary 5
Core Views5
Major Forecast Changes5
Key Risks To Outlook5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook 7
Political SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Political Risk Ratings 7
Domestic Politics 8
Implications Of Medvedev’s Recent Assertiveness
Despite increasing signs of a power struggle between President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister
Vladimir Putin, we maintain that the latter will ultimately have the final word in picking Russia’s next president
TABLE: Political Ov erview8
TABLE: RUSSIA LIST OF MINISTERS TO BE PUR GED9
Long-Term Political Outlook 10
Institutions, Insurgency And Demography: Challenges For The 2010s
Russia faces monumental political challenges over the coming decade that will determine whether it evolves
along more liberal lines or consolidates as a one-party authoritarian state
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook 13
Economic SWOT Analysis 13
BMI Economic Risk Ratings 13
Economic Activity 14
Energy Exports To Offset Weaker Consumer Outlook
Despite revising down Russia’s 2011 private consumption growth forecast as higher inflation hurts real wage
growth and consumer confidence, we have raised our overall real GDP growth forecast to 46% from 43% for
this year on account of a stronger net export contribution to headline growth as the oil & gas sector
operates near maximum capacity
TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY14
Monetary Policy 16
No Change To Forecast After Surprise Interest Rate Hike
Despite inflation treading close to double-digit territory and the Central Bank of Russia’s surprising 25-basis-point hike of the refinancing
rate to 825% in late April, we are leaving our end-year 850% interest rate forecast unchanged
TABLE: MONETARY PO LIC Y16
Balance Of Payments 18
Solid Current Account Surplus To Remain In Place18
The sharp rise in global commodity prices, particularly oil, will help drive Russia’s merchandise trade surplus higher this year,
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT 18
Fiscal Policy 20
Oil To Improve State’s Bottom Line, Privatisations Key
The sharp spike in global oil prices has prompted us to revise our outlook for Russia’s fiscal account in 2011,
with the narrowing of the budget deficit taking place more rapidly than previously assumed
TABLE: FISCA L PO LIC Y20
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast 23
The Russian Economy To 2020 23
Trend Growth To Settle Lower As Drivers Shift To Domestic Demand
Over our 10-year forecast horizon, Russian trend growth is expected to slow markedly, and we project real
GDP growth to average 42% between 2016 and 2020
TABLE: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts23
Chapter 4: Business Environment 25
Business Environment SWOT Analysis 25
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings 25
Business Environment Outlook 26
Institutions 26
TABLE: BMI Business And Operation Risk Ratings26
TABLE: BMI Legal Framework Rating27
Infrastructure 28
TABLE: Labour Force Quality29
Market Orientation 30
TABLE: Em erging Europe – Annual FDI Infl ows30
TABLE: Trade And Investment Ratings31
TABLE: TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS 32
Operational Risk 33
Chapter 5: Key Sectors 35
Defence & Security 35
TABLE: Russia’s Government Defence Ex penditure, 2008-201538
Freight Transport 39
TABLE: AIR FREI GHT, 2008-2015 42
Other Key Sectors 43
TABLE: Autos Sector Key Indicators43
TABLE: Food and Drink Sector Key Indicators43
TABLE: Infrastructure Sector Key Indicators43
TABLE: Oil and Gas Sector Key Indicators44
TABLE: Ph armaCEUTICA LS Sector Key Indicators44
TABLE: Telecoms Sector Key Indicators44
Chapter 6: BMI Global Assumptions 45
Global Outlook 45
Modest Downgrade To Global Growth, But Upbeat Outlook Intact
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSU MPTIONS 45
TABLE: DEVELOPE D STATES REA L GDP GRO WTH FORECAST (% chg y-o-y)46
TABLE: REA L GDP GRO WTH – BLOO MBER G CONSENSUS FORECASTS 46
TABLE: EMER GIN G MAR KETS AGGRE GATE GRO WTH (% chg y-o-y)47
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