Since Q108, we have described numerically the banking business environment for each of the countries surveyed by BMI. We do this through our Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating (CBBER), a measure that ensures we capture the latest quantitative information available. It also ensures consistency across all countries and between the inputs to the CBBER and the Insurance Business Environment Rating, which is likewise now a feature of our insurance reports. Like the Business Environment Ratings calculated by BMI for all the other industries on which it reports, the CBBER takes into account the limits of potential returns and the risks to the realisation of those returns. It is weighted 70% to the former and 30% to the latter.
The evaluation of the ‘Limits of potential returns’ includes market elements that are specific to the banking industry of the country in question and elements that relate to that country in general. Within the 70% of the CBBER that takes into account the ‘Limits of potential returns’, the market elements have a 60% weighting and the country elements have a 40% weighting. The evaluation of the ‘Risks to realisation of returns’ also includes banking elements and country elements (specifically, BMI’s assessment of long-term country risk). However, within the 30% of the CBBER that take into account the risks, these elements are weighted 40% and 60%, respectively.
Further details on how we calculate the CBBER are provided at the end of this report. In general, though, three aspects need to be borne in mind in interpreting the CBBERs. The first is that the market elements of the ‘Limits of potential returns’ are by far the most heavily weighted of the four elements. They account for 60% of 70% (or 42%) of the overall CBBER. Second, if the market elements are significantly higher than the country elements of the ‘Limits of potential returns’, it usually implies that the banking sector is (very) large and/or developed relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Conversely, if the market elements are significantly lower than the country elements, it usually means that the banking sector is small and/or underdeveloped relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Third, within the ‘Risks to the realisation of returns’ category, the market elements (ie: how regulations affect the development of the sector, how regulations affect competition within it, and Moody’s Investor Services’ ratings for local currency deposits) can be markedly different from BMI’s long-term risk rating.

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Executive Summary 5
Table: Levels (RUBbn) . 5
Table: Levels (US$bn) 5
Table: Levels At February 2011 . 5
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2011-2015 (%) 6
Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2011 . 6
Table: Projected Levels (RUBbn) . 6
Table: Projected Levels (US$bn) 6
SWOT Analysis 7
Table: Russia Commercial Banking SWOT 7
Russia Political SWOT 7
Russia Economic SWOT . 8
Russia Business Environment SWOT 8
Business Environment Outlook 9
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating . 9
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 9
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology 10
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings . 11
Global Commercial Banking Outlook . 12
Central And Eastern Europe Banking Sector Outlook . 16
Table: Banks’ Bond Portfolios 19
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings . 20
Table: Comparison Of Loan/Deposit, Loan/Asset And Loan/GDP Ratios . 21
Table: Anticipated Developments In 2011 22
Table: Comparison Of Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits, 2009-2010 (US$bn) . 23
Table: Comparison Of Per Capita Deposits, 2010 (US$) . 24
Table: Interbank Rates And Bond Yields 25
Russia Banking Sector Outlook . 26
Economic Outlook . 30
Table: Russia Economic Activity, 2008-2009 32
Competitive Landscape 33
Market Structure 33
Protagonists 33
Table: Protagonists In Russia’s Commercial Banking Sector. 33
Definition of the Commercial Banking Universe. 33
List Of Banks 34
Table: Russia’s 10 Largest Banks . 34
Company Profiles 35
Sberbank . 35
Table: Stock Market Indicators . 36
Table: Balance Sheet (RUBmn, unless stated) 36
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated) . 36
Table: Key Ratios (%) . 37
VTB . 38
Table: Stock Market Indicators . 39
Table: Balance Sheet (RUBmn, unless stated) 39
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated) . 39
Table: Key Ratios (%) . 40
Alfa-Bank 41
Table: Key Statistics For Alfa-Bank, 2007-2008 (US$ ‘000) . 42
Gazprombank 43
Table: Key Statistics For Gazprombank, 2007-2008 (RUBmn) . 44
UniCredit Bank . 45
ZAO Raiffeisenbank 46
Table: Key Statistics For ZAO Raiffeisenbank, 2007-2008 (RUB ‘000) 47
Promsvyazbank . 48
Table: Key Statistics For Promsvyazbank, 2007-2008 (RUB ‘000) . 49
Bank of Moscow 50
Table: Stock Market Indicators . 51
Table: Balance Sheet (RUBmn, unless stated) 51
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated) . 51
Table: Key Ratios (%) . 52
BMI Banking Sector Methodology 53
Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating . 54
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale 55
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 56
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