Russia Commercial Banking Report Q4 2011

Since Q108, we have described numerically the banking business environment for each of the countries surveyed by BMI. We do this through our Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating (CBBER), a measure that ensures we capture the latest quantitative information available. It also ensures consistency across all countries and between the inputs to the CBBER and the Insurance Business Environment Rating, which is likewise now a feature of our insurance reports. Like the Business Environment Ratings calculated by BMI for all the other industries on which it reports, the CBBER takes into account the limits of potential returns and the risks to the realisation of those returns. It is weighted 70% to the former and 30% to the latter.
The evaluation of the Limits of Potential Returns includes market elements that are specific to the banking industry of the country in question and elements that relate to that country in general. Within the 70% of the CBBER that takes into account the Limits of Potential Returns, the market elements have a 60% weighting and the country elements have a 40% weighting. The evaluation of the Risks to Realisation of Returns also includes banking elements and country elements (specifically, BMI’s assessment of long-term country risk). However, within the 30% of the CBBER that takes into account the risks, these elements are weighted 40% and 60%, respectively.
Further details on how we calculate the CBBER are provided at the end of this report. In general, though, three aspects need to be borne in mind in interpreting the CBBERs. The first is that the market elements of the Limits of Potential Returns are by far the most heavily weighted of the four elements. They account for 60% of 70% (or 42%) of the overall CBBER. Second, if the market elements are significantly higher than the country elements of the Limits of Potential Returns, it usually implies that the banking sector is (very) large and/or developed relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Conversely, if the market elements are significantly lower than the country elements, it usually means that the banking sector is small and/or underdeveloped relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Third, within the Risks to Realisation of Returns category, the market elements (ie: how regulations affect the development of the sector, how regulations affect competition within it and the Moody’s ratings for local currency deposits) can be markedly different from BMI’s long-term risk rating.

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Executive Summary . 5
Table: Levels (RUBbn) .. 5
Table: Levels (US$bn) 5
Table: Levels At June 2011 .. 5
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2011-2015 (%) .. 5
Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2011 6
Table: Projected Levels (RUBbn) . 6
Table: Projected Levels (US$bn) .. 6
SWOT Analysis 7
Russia Commercial Banking SWOT . 7
Russia Political SWOT 7
Russia Economic SWOT 8
Russia Business Environment SWOT .. 8
Business Environment Outlook . 9
Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings . 9
Table: Russia’s Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating .. 9
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology . 10
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 11
Global Commercial Banking Outlook .. 12
Central And Eastern Europe Banking Sector Outlook . 16
Table: South East Europe Banking Sector Overview 21
Table: Banks’ Bond Portfolios . 22
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 23
Table: Comparison Of Loan/Deposit, Loan/Asset And Loan/GDP Ratios .. 24
Table: Anticipated Developments In 2011 . 25
Table: Comparison Of Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits, 2009-2010 (US$bn) .. 26
Table: Comparison Of Per Capita Deposits, 2010 (US$) .. 27
Table: Interbank Rates And Bond Yields, 2010-2011 .. 28
Russia Banking Sector Outlook . 29
Economic Outlook .. 35
Table: Russia Economic Activity, 2008-2015 37
Competitive Landscape .. 38
Market Structure 38
Protagonists .. 38
Table: Protagonists In Russia’s Commercial Banking Sector.. 38
Definition Of The Commercial Banking Universe.. 38
List Of Banks 39
Table: Russia’s 10 Largest Banks .. 39
Company Profiles 40
Sberbank . 40
Table: Stock Market Indicators 41
Table: Balance Sheet (RUBmn, unless stated) . 41
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated) .. 41
Table: Key Ratios (%) .. 41
VTB 43
Table: Stock Market Indicators 44
Table: Balance Sheet (RUBmn, unless stated) . 44
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated) .. 44
Table: Key Ratios (%) .. 45
Alfa-Bank 46
Table: Key Statistics For Alfa-Bank, 2007-2008 (US$ ‘000) . 47
Gazprombank 48
Table: Key Statistics For Gazprombank, 2007-2008 (RUBmn) 49
UniCredit Bank 50
ZAO Raiffeisenbank .. 51
Table: Key Statistics For ZAO Raiffeisenbank, 2007-2008 (RUB ‘000) .. 52
Promsvyazbank 53
Table: Key Statistics For Promsvyazbank, 2007-2008 (RUB ‘000) 54
Bank of Moscow .. 55
Table: Stock Market Indicators 56
Table: Balance Sheet (RUBmn, unless stated) . 56
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated) .. 56
Table: Key Ratios (%) .. 56
BMI Banking Sector Methodology . 58
Commercial Bank Business Environment Ratings 59
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale. 60
Table: Weighting Of Indicators .. 61
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