Russian defence policy and military doctrine is defined by the State Programme of Armaments (GPV- 2015), published in 2010. Russia’s defence industry has to date been an export -rather than import- driven entity, but this is expected to change with increasing multinational involvement as the sector focuses on all aspects of military planning, expenditure and modernisation.
The government should remain broadly stable over the coming year. Nevertheless, the big political unknown is whether President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin will both contest the presidency in March 2012. Neither of the two men have ruled this out, meaning that there could be increased jockeying between their two camps. Any sign of public disagreement between the two leaders could heighten political uncertainty for investors.
On the security front, we remain concerned about the high level of violence in the North Caucasus. An attack by Islamist militants on the Chechen parliament in Grozny marks the latest in a series of violent incidents in Russia's North Caucasus, supporting our view that the security situation is likely to get worse before it gets better. The militants' boldness in striking at the heart of Chechen political power will provide a stark warning to Moscow that its control over the restive republic is far from absolute, despite improvements in the past few years. Moreover, the demonstrated ability of militants in the North Caucasus to attack prominent and highly defended targets will weigh on investor confidence, limiting the region's ability to attract foreign investment for the Sochi Winter Olympics in 2014.
Despite considerable federal subsidies to improve local economies, repressive security measures, and the elimination of key militant operatives, Kremlin-appointed regional leaders have failed to rein in the current insurgency. The main hotspots will remain Chechnya, Ingushetia, and Dagestan. However, other republics are coming under strain. A suicide bombing in the predominantly Christian republic of North Ossetia-Alania on September 9 threatens to increase long-standing tensions between the Ossetians and the Ingush.
There have also been tensions in the republics of Kabardino-Balkaria and Karachai-Cherkessia, where the Circassian people (who are spread throughout the North Caucasus) have been making renewed calls to create a common republic. Any attempt by the Circassians to reorganise local borders could prove highly destabilising, given the diverse population of the Caucasus, and is unlikely to be tolerated. The Circassians are also seeking an international boycott of the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi, noting that that year marks the 150th anniversary of their 'genocide' at Russia's hands. Overall, we see no let up to the troubles in the region.
We hold to our core view that the pace of the Russian recovery will remain relatively subdued in 2011, with growth forecast to hit 4.3%, from an estimated 4.1% in 2010. Although investment and private consumption will continue to recover, a return to pre-crisis growth levels remains firmly off the cards. We maintain that the recovery in private demand will be slow through to H211 at the earliest, though expect this component of GDP to perform strongly from 2012 onwards as domestic drivers of growth become increasingly important.

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Executive Summary 7
SWOT Analysis 9
Russia Security SWOT 9
Russia Defence Industry SWOT 10
Russia Political SWOT 11
Russia Economic SWOT 11
Russia Business Environment SWOT 12
Global Political Outlook 13
The United States 13
China 15
Japan And The Koreas 16
Russia 17
Europe 18
India 18
Brazil 19
Turkey 20
Iran 20
Egypt, Saudi Arabia And Pakistan 21
Terrorism 22
Africa 23
Space 24
Competition 24
Wild Card In Global Politics 25
Conclusion 28
Europe Security Overview 30
Strategic Outlook For The 2010s 30
Europe In A Global Context 30
Europe's Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade 30
Security Risk Ratings 36
BMI’s Security Ratings 36
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings 36
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 37
Russia’s Security Ratings 38
City Terrorism Rating 38
Table: BMI’s Central And Eastern Europe And Central Asia City Terrorism Index 39
Political Overview 41
Domestic Politics 41
Long-Term Political Outlook 45
Security Overview 49
External Security Situation 49
United States 49
Nuclear Reductions 51
NATO 52
Central Asia 54
China 56
The Arctic 57
Global Relations 57
Great Power 60
Russia's Strategic Options 61
Russia's New Military Doctrine And NATO's Response 62
Internal Security 64
Armed Forces 70
Armed Forces 70
Historical Strength 72
International Deployments 72
Table: Russia’s Foreign Deployments 2008 73
Weapons Of Mass Destruction 73
Market Overview 76
Industry Trends And Developments 79
Table: Key Players In Russia’s Defence Sector, 2005 79
Arms Trade Overview 80
Procurement Trends And Developments 81
Industry Forecast Scenario 82
Armed Forces 82
Table: Russia’s Armed Forces, 2002-2008 (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 82
Table: Russia’s Available Manpower For Military Services, 2008-2015 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 82
Defence Expenditure 83
Table: Russia’s Government Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015 83
Table: Russia’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP (US$mn) 84
Defence Trade 84
Table: Russia’s Defence Imports, 2008-2015 (US$mn) 85
Table: Russia’s Defence Exports, 2008-2015 (US$mn) 85
Table: Russia’s Defence Trade Balance 2008-2015 86
Macroeconomic Outlook 87
Table: Russia – Macroeconomic Activity, 2006-2015 89
Company Profiles 90
Irkut 90
Kazan Helicopters 92
Rosoboronexport State Corporation 93
Russian Aircraft Corporation MiG (RSK MiG) 94
Sukhoi Aviation Corporation 96
United Aircraft Corporation 98
Uralvagonzavod 100
Country Snapshot: Russia Demographic Data 102
Section 1: Population 102
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 102
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 103
Section 2: Education And Healthcare 103
Table: Education, 2002-2005 103
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 103
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power 104
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 104
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) 104
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2006 105
BMI Methodology 106
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 106
Defence Industry 106
City Terrorism Rating 107
Table: Methodology 109
Sources 110
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