Russia was expected to register an annual increase of 9-10% in the volume of transport and logistics
services market between 2010 and 2013, according to a consulting department of RBC, as cited by
Esmerk. The market is expected to reach US$65.10bn (EUR51.22bn) in 2013. Rail transportation will
play a significant part in overall freight transportation, and revenues of Russia's state-owned Russian
Railways (RZD) are likely to surge 10% annually. Cargo processing services at the country's ports and
airports are expected to benefit much within the transport market. However, shipping services in 2010-
2011 will not pick up so actively as cargo transportation.
As we go into the fourth quarter of 2010, BMI still sees a post-recession 'bounce' taking place in Russia,
although it is turning out to be a little less vigorous than we at first believed. Our forecast is now for GDP
growth of 4.1% this year (down from our earlier projection of 4.7%). We see a similar year in 2011 with
the economy expanding by 4.3%. Broadly, two factors are at work: a double-dip global slowdown in the
latter part of this year and in 2011, will damp down Russia's growth, particularly by limiting prices of its
key commodity exports such as oil and gas. More positively, rising living standards will on the medium
term help boost consumption and diversify the domestic economy away from excessive reliance on the
energy sector. Having suffered the first fiscal deficit in a decade last year, government plans to privatise
10 major state-owned companies could also give a new boost to foreign investment. BMI is projecting
average annual GDP growth of 4.4% in 2011-2014, which will provide moderate support for the freight
transport sector. With parliamentary elections due in 2011, political risk factors cannot be ruled out, but
for the moment the government is stable; one important issue is whether it will be conservative or
proactive on the economic reform front over the next couple of years.
BMI expects a reasonably strong recovery in the Russian airfreight sector this year, with freight carried
growing by 5.9% to 3.364million tonne-kms (mntkm), going almost half of the way to offsetting the big
14.1% drop in 2009. This is a more vigorous performance than we had at first envisaged. We believe the
main Russian carriers are going through a period of consolidation and restructuring.
Road freight carried will recover with 4.1% growth this year to 207.2mntkm, after contracting during the
2009 recession. Arguably, road freight faces potentially the greatest demand as Russian living standards
improve and the country develops a wealthier, more consumer-oriented society. However, this potential is
held back by the lack of a comprehensive, modern road network across the country.
The Russian economy is very heavily reliant on railfreight, which forms the background of its bulk
transport system. BMI is predicting that railfreight carried will grow by a modest 2.4% this year to
2,049.5mntkm, after the 2009 contraction of 1.5%. The rail sector is on the verge of important structural
changes with RZD, the state-owned operator, getting ready to privatise some if its freight rail subsidiaries.
Total tonnage levels at the Port of St Petersburg are expected to gain 9.8% on the back of domestic
economic recovery and greater foreign trade, reaching 55.35mn tonnes by the end of this year. This BMI
forecast compares with a slump of 15.9% in 2009 as the global recession hit home.
Russian trade slumped by 19.0% in real terms in 2009 and is forecast by BMI to recover by a vigorous
13.7% in 2010. In the medium-term forecast period to 2014, annual trade growth will be 8.2%, greater
than the expansion of the domestic economy. Although we have highlighted the short-term strength of
exports as a factor in the current economic recovery (+8.0% in real terms this year), in the medium term,
BMI believes imports will perform more strongly. Imports will grow by 20.0% this year, also in real
terms, and in the period to 2014, we predict that import growth will average 10.8% per annum in real
terms vs 5.6% growth for exports.
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